Summary of Best Bets
Best Bet: Race 3 (2) Orlova
Next Best: Race 8 (1) Halliwell
Best Roughie: Race 9 (1) Free Beer
Two-Bet Play: Race 7 (4) Ginger Sinner and (5) Jacks On Ice
Turf Talk
- The track is rated a Heavy 10 after heavy rainfall hit the track Wednesday, which saw the races abandoned. More showers are forecast in the back end of the week, so it is unlikely to see an upgrade and the track will be well into the heavy range.
- The rail returns to the True position for the first meeting since May 23.
- Murray Bridge is a big, open track, so despite the wet conditions, it should still play very fairly. Expecting runners to come down the middle of the track in the straight, with the advantage generally lying with runners who find cover in the run.
Stats That Matter
- Apprentice Alysha Warren claims 1.5kg, which is important at this time of year, and she is in super form with 14 winners from her last 100 rides to return a POT of +35.6%.
- Harry Grace is riding winners consistently with 13 from his last 100 rides, but those haven’t been at much value and his POT return for punters has been -27.2%.
- Travis Doudle had a successful weekend last week with three winners, and he has produced 19 winners from his last 100 runners at a POT return of +18.6%. He brings six runners to this meeting.
- Aaron Bain and Ned Taylor are having a lean run in recent weeks with eight winners from their last 100 runners for a negative return of -53.5%, but this is a track they have a strong record at, with a POT return of +21.9% here at Murray Bridge.
Race 1
(10) Torpedoes was hitting the line strongly last start when coming off a short break and importantly looked to have no trouble on a heavy track, so should handle today’s expected conditions and is suited up in trip.
(14) Word Game has been well supported in her last two starts and ran into the placings in a stronger race last time. This is a drop in grade and she maps for a better run from a lower barrier.
(6) No Bail has been strong through the line in his last two starts, now at peak fitness third-up and getting to the 1200m trip on a bigger track looks an ideal set up.
(16) Navy Rok ran well last start despite missing the placings, but that maiden has produced some good form since and he should be suited at this bigger Murray Bridge track.
Selections:
(10) Torpedoes
(14) Word Game
(6) No Bail
(16) Navy Rok
Suggested Bet: No bet.
Race 2
(3) Tweeter performed well in a Listed grade race last start when running into fourth and drops in grade here. She has good early speed so will likely settle in a prominent position and has won on a heavy rated track previously, so appears suited.
(1) Neveu won well here in SA two starts ago before a bold performance in a stronger race at Caulfield last time. He drops in grade for this return race so should go close if he can hold his recent form.
(2) Lalor is on the quick back-up after a disappointing run in a stronger race last weekend. He had excuses there when well in the market and his previous form was much better, so he can bounce back in this easier race.
(10) Vega Now was solid on debut when running into the placings. She should be better for that run and will be suited up in distance off that.
Selections:
(3) Tweeter
(1) Neveu
(2) Lalor
(10) Vega Now
Suggested Bet: No bet.
Race 3
(2) Orlova was almost a sick beat in her last start when she settled a long way back and had a lot of work to do late, but reeled off the fastest last 600m and 400m of the race to pick up the runaway leader. She achieved that on a wet track, so should handle today’s expected conditions and will appreciate the 1800m trip. Looks hard to hold out on this track.
(8) Fiabesca was chasing Orlova last start at Morphettville. Handles wet tracks and is in light at the weights here after a claim, so should be strong late.
(1) Blindato is at peak fitness deep into this prep now, having been strong over a longer distance last start. The 1800m trip shouldn’t prove an issue and he can handle a wet track.
(5) Otto’s Dream has mixed his form in his last few starts but can get a positive run here from a low barrier which could prove to be an advantage in this small field
Selections:
(2) Orlova
(8) Fiabesca
(1) Blindato
(5) Otto’s Dream
Suggested Bet: (2) Orlova – Win.
Race 4
(2) Miracle Spin is in good form, having won the Casterton Cup two starts ago when defeating the in-form I Catchem Fox on a heavy track before running midfield in a stronger race at Caulfield last start. He drops in grade today and has a super record on wet ground (8:3-1-0), so looks suited in this set up he is faced with today.
(7) Peta’s Heart won by a big margin on a heavy rated track last start at Morphettville and steps up in grade today. While this is harder, she is at peak fitness and suited in the conditions, so a repeat performance should see her handle the step up in level.
(3) Placo is on the quick back-up, having taken up the lead last week and hit the line well enough off a controlled tempo. If he can control the race from the front again, he could prove tough to catch and handles wet conditions.
(6) Flash Alice has found strong recent form and has hit the line strongly in her last two starts over this distance, so does look a strong lightweight hope in this set up.
Selections:
(2) Miracle Spin
(7) Peta’s Heart
(3) Placo
(6) Flash Alice
Suggested Bet: No bet.
Race 5
(6) Our Sassy Lady proved too hard to catch two starts ago but couldn’t repeat the performance last time when having more pressure up on the speed from rivals. She can bounce back today given she sets up for a much softer lead in a race that appears to lack much early tempo. She could prove tough to catch.
(13) Petit Eagle was doing her best work late in the run last start, so looks ready to tackle the longer trip here and should be suited on the bigger track.
(10) Think Lu Bella was an impressive winner on a Heavy 10 track two starts back and hit the line well at this track last start. She looks likely to get every chance in this set up today rising in distance, and with a light weight she should have no trouble in the conditions.
(4) Scenic Host is a mare in strong form, having won her last two starts, and she is a proven wet track performer, so could surprise here.
Selections:
(6) Our Sassy Lady
(13) Petit Eagle
(10) Think Lu Bella
(4) Scenic Host
Suggested Bet: No bet.
Race 6
(4) Big Rooster has been in super form this prep, having won two of four starts. He boasts a strong record on heavy ground (4:2-0-1) and maps for a favourable run out of barrier 3, so could prove hard to stop in this suitable set up.
(1) Brave Star is dropping in grade here and has a super record on heavy tracks (10:4-2-2). He gets a suitable set up at this level but needs to navigate a wide barrier to get the right run.
(6) Head Of The Herd is in consistent form and returns to a track where he has a good record, including two recent wins over this same track/trip set up.
(9) Maxildo ran a close second last start in similar conditions and is a consistent performer in the conditions, so should handle himself in this set up.
Selections:
(4) Big Rooster
(1) Brave Star
(6) Head Of The Herd
(9) Maxildo
Suggested Bet: No bet.
Race 7
Feel like there is good value in two runners that are proven on wet tracks in last start winner (4) Ginger Sinner, who was strong to the line last time over this same distance and will likely be suited at the bigger Murray Bridge track today, and the runner he defeated in (5) Jacks On Ice, who again looks the likely leader of the race with a favourable race map and has won at this track previously. Both runners are proven in these wet conditions and are in form, so can make a good case for either at the value.
(6) Like A Drifter looks likely to jump as the favourite and deservedly so given he has now won four in a row. He can prove hard to beat if he maintains that form, but could be in for a tough run from a wide barrier and on a heavy track where he has been untested previously.
(10) Tosen Water was well supported last start but missed the kick and couldn’t recover. She can be forgiven for that performance and is capable of bouncing back in conditions that suit.
Selections:
(4) Ginger Sinner
(5) Jacks On Ice
(6) Like A Drifter
(10) Tosen Water
Suggested Bet: (4) Ginger Sinner and (5) Jacks On Ice – Win.
Race 8
(1) Halliwell rates highly here dropping down in grade from her previous two starts this prep. She gets to peak fitness now and has a super record on heavy rated tracks (5:2-1-2), so appears to get an ideal set up and gets plenty of room to be running on at the bigger track. This set up gives her a strong chance to find winning form again.
(4) Brimarvi Rosemarie has made a consistent start to this prep, including a last start win at this track/distance set up. This is harder but she is at peak fitness now.
(13) Refreshing is a last start winner and rises in grade. She has a strong record on wet tracks (8:3-1-1), so conditions are unlikely to trouble her here.
(3) Bohemian Angel makes her debut for a new stable, her Victorian form is in slightly stronger races so a drop in grade could bring her on to find improvement
Selections:
(1) Halliwell
(4) Brimarvi Rosemarie
(13) Refreshing
(3) Bohemian Angel
Suggested Bet: (1) Halliwell – Win.
Race 9
(1) Free Beer put in a bold performance last start to only miss the winner by 1L. He drops in grade and distance, which should suit based off last start, but also boasts a strong record on wet tracks (4:3-0-0), so can perform well here at good value.
(6) Riche D’Amour has been with little luck in his last pair of runs, including an unlucky second here recently. He is better suited back to this track today and slightly down in grade, so expecting him to be capable of running on strongly again and hard to hold out with luck.
(9) Orthies has continued to improve this prep and is capable of finding a peak performance now in suitable conditions at this track.
(14) Kalasec has mixed his form early this prep but is capable of improvement today, mapping for a softer run than his most recent efforts and at peak fitness now at this point.
Selections:
(1) Free Beer
(6) Riche D’Amour
(9) Orthies
(14) Kalasec
Suggested Bet: (1) Free Beer – Each-way.
