Weekend at Bot’s: The horses to follow (and forget) from Flemington

Each week, Will ‘Bot’ Elford, with an assist from David Pfundt’s Form King data, unpicks the how, why and who to follow from Victoria’s major metro meeting.

Throughout Weekend at Bot’s, you’ll see Form King data used to break down how each race was run and the level of performance produced. Here’s a quick guide to the key metrics:

• LD-S-8: Leader from the start to the 800m.
• LD-8-4: Leader from the 800m to the 400m.
• LD-4-F: Leader from the 400m to the finish.
• WNR-4-F: Winner from the 400m to the finish.
• WFA: Overall performance rating on a Weight-For-Age scale.

Dave Pfundt on how the meeting played out:

Light NNW winds (10 km/h or less) had little to no impact on race shape or overall times.

The track was rated a Slow 6, though performance data suggests it was closer to a Dead 5. The outside section of the straight appeared to be the superior ground – both open-age sprint races were won out there, while the 2YO event was taken out along the inside. All three straight-course races were won by runners settling in the first three.

On the circle, four of the six winners benefited from rail runs in transit. The exception was Saint George, who produced a strong finishing effort from wider off the track. While no leaders were able to win, they did stick on for placings in Races 5 and 8—both genuinely run events taken out by runners settling back.

Overall, it presented as a typically fair Flemington surface.

Race 1

Flemington Cup Day began with just five runners contesting the furthest race for two-year-olds in the country, the Byerley Handicap.

Ko Phangan, the even-money favourite, was much too good, winning comfortably under a well-judged ride from Craig Williams.

As anticipated, the pace was extremely slow through the first half of the race, only increasing from the 800-metre mark. Only the winner managed to finish faster than standard over the final 400 metres, with the rest failing to break twelve seconds over the last furlong.

Pre-race expectations suggested this would be a weak form reference, and nothing from the race alters that view. There are no Derby or Oaks implications emerging from this field. At best, one of these may be able to win a Maiden or a BenchMark 58 in country Victoria in the next month.

Connections indicated a possible Caulfield Guineas path for Ko Phangan. That appears ambitious on the strength of this form.

A comparison to Ko Phangan would be Vianarra, who overachieved in the 2024 Caulfield Guineas won by Private Life, but has since found his level in BenchMark 66 company for the same stable.

Race 2

The second of two races for two-year-olds was won by Riverina Lulu, on debut for Grahame Begg. She had been the third elect throughout betting, behind the Talindert winner Hard Kick and the impressive maiden winner Panchenko, a granddaughter of Black Caviar.

Flemington Race 2 | Riverina Lulu

Too good late! 🚀 @Grahame_Begg‘s promising filly lets down brilliantly to cause an upset under the in-form @HTCoffey 🔥

📺 Ch. 78/68, Foxtel 529, Kayo or via our app
REPLAYS: https://t.co/ZIa4a02wC0 pic.twitter.com/tluR2ybzkm

— Racing.com (@Racing) July 18, 2026

Riverina Lulu herself was quite easy to back in the 10 minutes before the race, starting $11 on the exchange. She won comfortably, with Harry Coffey not having to pull the persuader once, such was her professionalism as a two-year-old filly.

The rating for the race can only be so high, though. Hard Kick and Panchenko were both severely underwhelming and failed to run to form. Riverina Lulu beat Leopard Shark and The Troubleshooter, two 40/1 chances, by 1.5 and 2.25 lengths respectively. A very nice filly, and I’d consider her comparable to Angels Fury.

There were reports that Hard Kick became highly restless in the parade ring before the race, effectively running his race before he’d even reached the barrier stalls. On leaving the stalls, he and Dark Matter jumped directly into each other, which could not have aided his chances. He drifted quite markedly before the off, eventually starting $2.70 on the exchange.

It would be irresponsible to judge him purely on Saturday, he is much better than that, but it certainly dampens his reputation for now. I would love to see him again, and would be interested in what the market expects of him then. For me, I’d take a conservative view of his debut, taking two lengths from it and pricing him based on that.

He becomes a very difficult runner to price at his next start. He is also destined for Hong Kong at some point, so we may not have to assess him for too much longer either.

Panchenko was well supported throughout betting and similarly disappointed. She raced very keenly, then loomed as if to win, running the 800-to-400 metres substantially faster than the rest of the field before her run came to an end and she failed to finish the race off.

The market had essentially priced her based on the rating she recorded on debut, so punters can have reasonable confidence in that moving forward. She may be given a spell for now.

Race 3

The Rising Stars Series Final for apprentices gave Lucy Yeomans her first winner at Flemington, as Changing Colours dominated a fairly good group of mares. The race effectively became a 600-metre sprint: the lead speed to the three-furlong marker was just shy of 13 lengths slower than typical, and 7.5 lengths quicker from the 600 metres to the finish.

Changing Colours had been with Chris Waller up until last preparation, and she has now run a new peak, and quite significantly so. This is a strong indication of Yeomans’ ability as a conditioner: in just two runs, she has been able to extract the absolute best from a horse she took on from Australia’s premier trainer.

Since her inception as a trainer, Yeomans has had 46 runners for 10 winners and 11 placings, a 21.7% win rate, and 1.56 wins over expectation (where 1 is neutral) using BSP. If there is one takeaway from Saturday, it is Lucy Yeomans, especially when her partner Blake Shinn returns to the saddle.

It was a terrific rating as well. On this performance, she is a Stakes filly, and this was only a BM70, so she can win her way through the grades and make us money as she does.

Race 4

Salizou sliced through what became a bunched finish to win race four.

She had only won a Class 1 on the Ballarat synthetic before Saturday, and expectations were not particularly high. Duly, she was not fancied at all, easing from an opening price of $13 to $27 on the exchange at the off.

Visually, the win was impressive, and she finished strongly, but the logical next step for her is to face older horses in two weeks’ time.

At a guess, I’d imagine she’ll be unfancied based on the bare form of this, though I may be wrong.

Flemington Race 4 | Salizou

The 3YO filly storms home to cause a boilover at $25 and make it three wins from her past four starts for @Freedmanmitch 🔥

📺 Ch. 78/68, Foxtel 529, Kayo or via our app
REPLAYS: https://t.co/ZIa4a02wC0 pic.twitter.com/KLETSYCPMz

— Racing.com (@Racing) July 18, 2026

Laura Eliza was well backed from Wednesday through to Saturday, and from then on she was an easy runner to back. There was $2.90 available on race morning, and she was sent away $4.60 on the exchange. There was nothing sinister in that; she was simply too short, and her price was corrected. She was arguably in a difficult position relative to how the track played, though there may not be much in that theory anyway.

Without being a bad piece of form, I wouldn’t consider this particularly strong either. This group turn four in two weeks and will no longer have the safety of racing in age-restricted events.

Missapprehend raced wide and without cover, which was not an ideal place to be on the day, and is rated only 64. She is the one to follow in the immediate future from this race, if any. She can drop into a BenchMark 64 at Sandown next start and will be there third-up.

Race 5

Kaleo is a testament to Ciaron Maher and his team’s ability to maintain their horses deep into their campaigns. Lucky Lucky Boom set a very fast pace, ten lengths quicker than standard up to the 800 metres, which set up a fast overall time.

This race rated quite well, and, unlike the previous race, there are a few runners that can be followed in open-age racing.

This was Kaleo at his very best for now. He is not an inch better than this, but he must still be respected in the immediate future if he continues to press on with his campaign.

If O’Brien is able to maintain Lucky Lucky Boom for another run or two, he may become highly interesting returning to Caulfield, where leading is far more forgiving. Saturday was his fifth run in only his third preparation, so there might not be many more chances for him this time around, but in my view, he still has a little more to offer.

Mr Avery was a runner I hadn’t given much thought to before the race, but the market support for him throughout betting proved me wrong. He ran commendably too, and if he stays south of the border, he might be intriguing next start.

Race 6

Not that we aren’t accustomed to it by now, but the Flemington Cup was run at an embarrassingly slow pace. If Virtuous Circle is leading, the tempo is 20 lengths too slow.

There’s nothing to learn from this. This group continuously race each other, week in and week out; they take their turns, and the pace was so incredibly slowly run that it has no relevance on future races that are contested with any intent at all.

The vast majority of this field ran to form and are not improving at all. In the coming months, when an abundance of highly progressive stayers come through the grades attempting to raise their ratings, they will be incredibly vulnerable.

Race 7

There was a clear advantage to being in the wider lines in the straight at Flemington, and that was evident in race seven, where barriers 15, 14, 12, 13 and 10 filled the first five across the line.

Piastri returned to something like his best under Craig Williams. He’d been somewhat out of form before Saturday, but there was a sense of confidence from the market suggesting he would run well, and run well he did. How much this win had to do with drawing 15 of 15 I’m not sure, but all I need to know is that he’s healthy and well, and remains capable of this level of performance, even if it is infrequent.

Piastri motors home down the straight to give Willo an ELEVEN-win lead in the Metro Premiership 🏎️@cwilliamsjockey @cmaherracing pic.twitter.com/fQ6fcDNqR3

— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) July 18, 2026

There are two runners worth following from this race. The first, Mr Verse, who is at his best over a mile and was not far from his peak first-up. He has changed stables since last campaign and hadn’t raced in 280 days, so he can be followed with confidence in handicaps over a mile and a mile and a quarter.

The other is Betwitchery, who was equally good, finishing approximately half a length to a length from her peak, indicating that she is in excellent form. Once she rises to 1400 metres in mares’ grade third-up, she should be hitting her mark.

As for the runners drawn in the inside division, it is worth disregarding this entirely as a form reference and focusing solely on what the market expected of them.

Race 8

Saint George did not have to be at his absolute best to win this, but he is well on track to do so in the late stages of winter and early spring. I do wonder whether he is at his best over 2000 metres; his best figures suggest he is competitive over a mile, and his stride would indicate as much. In my view, a mile and a half is beyond him and he should be kept exclusively to ten furlongs. They may aim higher, but perhaps the Naturalism is the right race for him in two months’ time.

Sit back and enjoy the ghostly grey doing his thing. Saint George 😇@cmaherracing pic.twitter.com/0LuM8KZkZn

— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) July 18, 2026

Think Giant was another early favourite, heavily supported throughout the week and then extremely soft on race day. He was $3.20 on Saturday morning and was sent off $5.70 on the exchange. Patience is a virtue in this game, especially with early favourites recently.

He was trapped wide and without cover for a portion of the race too, a poor position to be in on the day. I lost no admiration for him and, if anything, like him even more now than I did before Saturday. He is of high interest to me next start, third-up.

Race 9

I am certain that anyone who bets in Victoria would label Along The River a champion. Perhaps the most consistent five-furlong sprinter anywhere, ever. An excellent result for lovers of the game.

The only thing of note in the last was that Street Artist was backed off the boards, to no avail, as he ran poorly. He had shown so much in the early stages of his career. I’m sure he’s much better than this, but he must have some sort of internal issue. He raced a little strongly, but not enough to be so bad. At this point, in my view, it’s worth forgetting his peaks as an early three-year-old, because he’s nowhere near those now and continuously prices as if he’ll return to them.

It’s apparent why he was fancied though. It wasn’t a particularly strong race on paper, and he was the only runner capable of being much better; he was drawn on the better side of the straight and had the blinkers applied for the first time. Perhaps he needs a break.

The other winner of the dead-heat, Prima Bella ran to a similar rating to what she did last start.

The Ratings Blackbook