It could loom as a key piece of intel heading into one of racing’s biggest days.
Flemington track manager Liam O’Keeffe said Derby Day morning looks set to be wet, before conditions hopefully remain relatively dry for the rest of the day.
Looks like the rain will be around early morning. I spoke to the [weather] bureau earlier today, and their forecast is 2mm to 10mm starting from around dawn,’’ he said.
‘’Through till about lunchtime, and then hopefully easing off to more scattered showers during the actual race time. So hopefully we can get the lighter side of that.’’
O’Keeffe said that despite a warm day in Melbourne on Friday, the looming rain will mean he won’t water the track before Saturday.
‘’We won’t water tonight. I factored that in when I was thinking about watering last night. I wanted to put on enough water last night so that if we got the lighter side of it, it would work out about perfect, and didn’t want to have to get to tonight and think I’ll have to water even if there is rain coming,’’ he told Betsy.
‘’So we factored all that in, put on 4mm last night. It has us a genuine good four this morning, and naturally it’ll dry out nicely today.’’
Straight from the track managers mouth ✅
Liam O’Keeffe has the BOM on speed dial, with the weather being a bit uncertain tomorrow make sure you watch so you know exactly what to expect! https://t.co/fu9Qna2AeD
— Betsy (@betsy_com_au) October 30, 2026
O’Keeffe said that if 2mm of rain falls on Saturday morning – the lower end of the predicted rainfall – then the track will start as expected in the Good 4 range.
‘’So 2mm is probably about perfect because we’re not watering tonight. Off the back of a twenty-six degree day, if we get 5mm, you’re probably worse side of a Good 4,’’ he said.
‘’Heading to a 5mm, and then 7mm to 10mm, we’d certainly be in the soft range.
‘’Probably not so much looking for the amount of rainfall, more looking at having it all done and dusted by the first race. That’d be our best result.’’
The planning doesn’t stop there for O’Keeffe, who already has one eye on the conditions heading into Melbourne Cup Day, where the forecast looks solid.
‘’I think tomorrow, if we’ve got the first three races around the circle, hopefully the fence holds up well there, and the riders stick to that inside part,’’ he said.
‘’Naturally, with rain-affected ground, they will ease off at some stages during the day. We’ll move the roller to the 3m position for Melbourne Cup Day, and that’ll cover most of the wear and tear around the home turn.
‘’[On] Melbourne Cup Day, it’s showers Monday night into early Tuesday morning.’’
‘’And then it looks like at this stage it might be clear during the afternoon. Fingers crossed that forecast can hold, and we can get a clear race day on Tuesday.’’
