Summary of Best Bets
Best Bet: Race 2 (9) Sensational Secret
Next Best: Race 3 (10) Super Wonder
Best Value: Race 5 (13) Contrary
Turf Talk
- The track is currently rated a Soft 6, but there is clear weather forecast in the early days of the week. There is a small possibility we could see an upgrade to a Soft 5, but we aren’t expecting a significant change outside of that.
- The rail moves out from the previous meeting and will be positioned at +12m in the 1200m chute and +9m for the remainder of the circuit.
- Murray Bridge is a big, open track, so despite the rail moving out, we still expect it to play fairly. Generally, runners who can find cover in the run are advantaged.
Stats That Matter
- Jemma Gutte is riding in good form and is still claiming a handy 3kg. She has ridden 15 winners from her past 100 rides and returned a POT of +27.6%.
- Rochelle Milnes has slowly been riding herself into form, with 13 winners from her past 100 rides, but is currently still operating at a negative return of -13.3%.
- Shayne and Chelsea Cahill are in flying form, with 16 winners from their past 100 runners for a POT of +26%. From six wins at this track, they have been hugely profitable with a return of +81.7%.
Race 1
(8) Image Artist resumes for her second campaign, having contested stronger races during her debut preparation, including running a placing in a Listed two-year-old feature. She should find this much easier and maps well from the inside barrier to receive an ideal run. (6) Fartoo Frisky was well supported on debut but put in a moderate performance after doing a few things wrong. Expecting her to be better for the race-day experience and capable of bouncing back. (2) Favourite Chair ran into the placings on debut. He maps for another soft run and the rise in distance looks likely to suit him after a steady debut performance. A few make their debuts here and the best of those potentially is (3) Zeus Lightning, who has performed well at the trials and looks likely to receive a favourable run from barrier four.
Selections:
(8) Image Artist
(6) Fartoo Frisky
(2) Favourite Chair
(3) Zeus Lightning
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 2
(9) Sensational Secret recently returned from a spell and put in a big run at Morphettville, hitting the line strongly for another close placing. This looks an easier maiden and she maps well again from barrier three, so expect her to be hard to beat if she can hold the form from her last start. (6) Just Comet resumes. He was moderate in a recent trial but did manage to run into the placings first-up last preparation, so he can fire fresh. (5) Far More Radiant has placed in her past two starts and is in good form. She looks a runner who will appreciate the big track and is capable of improving. (11) Thine Majestic makes her debut. Her trial form has been solid and she sets up well with a light weight, so she is capable of producing a strong debut on her home track.
Selections:
(9) Sensational Secret
(6) Just Comet
(5) Far More Radiant
(11) Thine Majestic
Suggested Bet: (9) Sensational Secret – Win
Race 3
(10) Super Wonder was well supported on debut after some sharp work at the trials but raced greenly and had excuses. He has since had a spell, during which he was gelded, and comes into this off another trial win at Halidon. He looks a talented type and can bounce back from his debut effort. Former Western Australian trainer Indianna Weinert kicks off her time in South Australia with (9) Spartan Lass, who finished her time in WA with a pair of placings in metropolitan-level races. She may find this easier and is well weighted, so she looks capable. (8) Settle Petal’s form has been up and down this preparation, but her best would be capable of winning a race of this level. Dropping back to the 1000m trip may suit, but she will need to overcome a wide barrier. (6) Pretty Morsel resumes. She has had three good hit-outs at the jump-outs leading into this, so she comes in fit and maps well with a light weight.
Selections:
(10) Super Wonder
(9) Spartan Lass
(8) Settle Petal
(6) Pretty Morsel
Suggested Bet: (10) Super Wonder – Win
Race 4
(8) Tassoro looked to appreciate this setup when running second over the same track and distance, hitting the line strongly to record the second-fastest last 400m and 600m of the race. It looks a messy race map, which could set him up to hit the line strongly again. (10) Goodlookin Guru was well supported last start but had excuses after recording a poor post-race recovery, so we can expect her to improve in a similar setup. She will need to overcome a wide barrier, which is the query. (11) Karma Queen loomed as a winning chance last time but was overrun. She has been solid in her past two starts but has appeared one-paced, so she may be a runner ready for a rise in distance. (9) Brazen Queen ran into the placings at a big price last time and looks likely to handle a rise in distance off that performance. She maps well from a low barrier and should be strong late again.
Selections:
(8) Tassoro
(10) Goodlookin Guru
(11) Karma Queen
(9) Brazen Queen
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 5
(13) Contrary appreciated the rise in distance last start when winning over 2200m at Balaklava to break through for a maiden victory. She rises in grade today, but she looks suited at the 2000m trip and should again prove hard to catch with a light weight after the apprentice claim. (7) Valued chased hard for second behind Contrary at Balaklava, where he produced the second-fastest last 400m of the entire meeting. He has a light weight and a strong record at this track. (11) Lafont had excuses last start when well in the market but didn’t look to handle the wet conditions and was never really in the race late. She is better suited dropping in grade today and improving track conditions should help. (6) Suit Of Wands has been consistent in similar races recently but is still looking for improvement. The 2000m trip suits and could give her every chance to find her best.
Selections:
(13) Contrary
(7) Valued
(11) Lafont
(6) Suit Of Wands
Suggested Bet: (13) Contrary – Win
Race 6
(1) Cool The Jets is a last-start winner after dropping in grade and has now found winning form. He remains at the 1000m trip and, despite being winless at this track, he rates highly in this field and should be hitting the line strongly in a suitable setup. (5) Aztec Dancer has been in consistent form recently, with his past three runs coming at this track. Like him rising slightly in distance, as the extra 100m should suit, and he has a good record from three runs over this track-and-distance setup. (4) Tour De Moon resumes and sets up for a positive run, which could be an advantage and land him in an ideal position. His recent jump-outs have been solid and he performed well fresh last preparation. (3) Nostryia is knocking on the door for a win, having run into the placings in three of his past four starts. He was brave last time after jumping from a wide barrier but maps for a softer run from barrier four today, which should set him up for a better performance.
Selections:
(1) Cool The Jets
(5) Aztec Dancer
(4) Tour De Moon
(3) Nostryia
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 7
(2) Justica’s Bonus was big when winning in impressive fashion here last start. This race doesn’t appear a great deal harder and he looks ready for the rise in distance to 1400m off his recent form. He boasts a strong record at this track and could be hard to stop. (7) Kalosyni is on the quick back-up here. She was a brave winner at this track when first-up and hit the line well last start. Like her rising to the 1400m trip now that she is third-up into the preparation. (4) Darci Lane was a winner on debut before producing a midfield effort when rising in class last time. He is suited dropping back in grade and has early speed, so he should land in a strong position in the run. (5) Dreams Fulfilled hasn’t had a great deal of luck in recent starts but is dropping in grade and has been hitting the line strongly. A race of this level suits, so he looks capable of improving.
Selections:
(2) Justica’s Bonus
(7) Kalosyni
(4) Darci Lane
(5) Dreams Fulfilled
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 8
(2) Royal Fox has finished midfield in his two runs this preparation but sets up to improve dropping in grade and mapping for a good run from a low barrier. Todd Pannell sticks with him for the ride, which boosts confidence. (4) Collated performed below expectations over this track-and-distance setup but never really got going in that race. He needs to overcome a wide barrier, but a steadier tempo is expected today and could give him the chance to cross quickly and find a strong position. (10) Toes In First was a big winner at Bordertown recently but has failed to back that performance up since. He gets onto the bigger track today and rises in distance, which should suit. (6) Cosmic Spy finished well behind the winner when resuming but had a big gap between runs leading into that. He looks much better suited today now that he is fitter and rising to the 1600m trip.
Selections:
(2) Royal Fox
(4) Collated
(10) Toes In First
(6) Cosmic Spy
Suggested Bet: No bet
