Good Will Hunting: “I’ve somewhat recklessly marked her odds-on” in a huge Caulfield Cup Day preview

Everest Day to some, Caulfield Cup Day to me.

The Caulfield Cup is the centrepiece of the Melbourne Racing Club’s racing carnival, and this rendition is as fascinating as ever.

Caulfield Cup

Cosmic Crusader will attempt to do what no other Western Australian has since the great Northerly in 2002. He tore apart the Turnbull Stakes field in testing conditions, moving through the race with purpose and racing some of Australia’s premier middle-distance horses into submission. He is tremendously well in with 56kg; he must be favourite.

Of course, a mile and a half is an unknown commodity. Will he stay?

Using his stride as a reference, I can be relatively confident that he will run 2400 metres, but without wanting it. He certainly won’t want an inch further. He will not be at his best, but he needn’t be.

Holistically, these points don’t even really matter; the one determining factor of whether you or I or anyone should back him is price. 4/1 is right. I make Cosmic Crusader $4.90, to be exact.

There’s no need to bet now, but if there is a groundswell of punters that are sceptical of his ability to stay, then perhaps there will be an opportunity to bet.

Enfjaar is the best of the international front. He raced to a new peak at Glorious Goodwood before leaving for Australia. The most poignant point is that it was his first attempt over a mile and a half. He possesses speed and will stay. He’s a very good candidate and will be the runner that I take an early position on. I make him 7/1.

There are two runners in particular that are well thought of in the betting that I don’t think much of in this race: Zahraan and Saint George. Neither will stay, in my opinion. There are exceptions to cadence, and I notice that Zahraan and Saint George have won over a mile and a half or further overseas, but both stride much too quickly to be at their best over this distance. Kingswood falls under a similar category but is not quite as short. I make Zahraan 20/1 and Saint George 30/1.

I will back Enfjaar, and will look to back Cosmic Crusader at better odds. It’s a tragedy that The Euphrates is an emergency and unlikely to start. If he gains a start, I’ll certainly back him too.

Thousand Guineas

The second of the two Group 1 races is the Thousand Guineas. A month or two ago, this race was trending toward being a terrible edition, but within three weeks, they have improved out of sight, and all of a sudden, this may be a classic edition. There’s one in particular that gives me the impression that she may be destined for the top, and that’s Regal Ambition.

She was slow to begin in the Jim Moloney and settled at the rear. Dee asked her to improve from the three-furlong pole, and that she did.

She quickened instantly, from an already good speed. She broke 11 seconds between the 600 and 400 metres, sustained her speed, and tore away to win well, at her third start, no less. She has tremendous speed and strides as if a mile and a quarter would be no issue whatsoever.

There is, of course, the fact that she is typically slow to begin. She will be last, or close to it. That is an issue. That is built into the price, though, and I’m acutely aware of what I’m betting against. I know the map is terrible, but I also know that she is the best filly in this field, quite considerably so. All of these variables equate to a price, and I think $4.60 is a gross underestimation of how good she is, despite the obvious negatives.

She will have to somewhat rely on the pace ahead of her, but the pace forecast hints toward the pace being good.

She would not look out of place in the Cox Plate in a week’s time.

Pretty Baby is worth having something on too; she was my top seed for a very long time. Her odds are too big, but I’ll back her as a saver.

Ethereal Stakes

The bet of the day falls in the Ethereal Stakes. Fringilla is not yet favourite, but I am certain she will be by race morning.

She won in extraordinary time and with big margins throughout the field at Geelong. She strides as if a mile and a quarter is her optimal distance and will make the pace as she pleases.

Miss Waititi, who is currently favourite, won the Super Impose very well, but that was run in very difficult conditions. She is a mile-and-a-half filly who thrives on endurance. This might happen all a little too quickly for her, which gives a significant edge to Fringilla.

I’ve somewhat recklessly marked Fringilla odds-on and have had a good crack at it. I’m very, very keen on her.

Alinghi Stakes

The Alinghi Stakes is headlined by Tasmanian Group 1 mare Geegees Mistruth. She’s the class of the field, but must carry 61kg to offset that obvious advantage.

She was held up and ran well behind Jimmysstar and others in the Manikato Stakes last start, so she is in tremendous form for a race of this quality. Blinkers are applied for the first time, and Blake Shinn retains the ride. From the draw, she’ll more than likely settle in the one-out, one-back position and should overhaul this field of moderate fillies in the straight.