Summary of Bets at Moe:
| Race | No. | Horse | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | Gee And Tee E/W | Crying out for the mile – huge odds at 20/1 |
| 2 | 8 | Silk Sonic (save 1. Auxiliary) | Trialled well. Maps well. In-form hoop up. |
| 7 | 4 | Blistering E/W | Cost herself last start. Flying. Quick back-up |
| 8 | 3 | Lake Forest | Trialled well. Maps well. Peak ratings in race. |
| 8 | 4 | Roussillon | Jumped-out nicely for the new stable. |
Summary of Bets at Swan Hill:
| Race | No. | Horse | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | Just Swift (E/W) | Given no hope both runs this campaign. Going well. |
| 4 | 6 | Kezza’s Legacy (E/W) | Trialled well. Can fire fresh for the new stable. |
| 7 | 2 | Ripper | Luckless last start. Maps well. Top jockey up. |
| 7 | 17 | Angel of the Sea | Blinkers on. Class runner. Wet to dry a plus. |
Track Pattern Outlook – Moe
- Despite Moe being a tight-turning track, I think it plays well.
- Momentum is key, if you’re going to make ground, you need to be doing so before they hit the 300m home straight.
- The 1200m start gives a lovely, long run into the first turn.
Track Pattern Outlook – Swan Hill
- Spacious track with a 475m home straight, but it’s rarely a disadvantage to be on speed.
- Has a 975m chute that has just one bend – barriers are of little consequence there.
- 1300m chute has a nice run down the back straight before they start turning.
Key Stats (thanks to puntingform.com.au)
- No jockey knows Swan Hill like local hoop Harry Coffey. He’s also in form, riding 21 winners from his last 100 rides at a 21.6% PoT.
- Symon Wilde is going at 19% from his last 100 runners and his runners generally perform at Swan Hill, going at 17.3%.
- Trainer John Leek Jnr is going at 24% for his last 100 runners delivering punters a 19.5% PoT. Peter Moody and Katherine Coleman have also hit form, posting 21 winners from their last 100 runners.
- Ethan Brown booted home five winners at Sale last Sunday, he has another strong book today, including short-priced favourite Silk Sonic in race two.
Overview
Moe Race 1 No.7 Gee And Tee
(2) Katsun looks the likely leader and should ensure a genuine tempo. (7) Gee And Tee has been looking for the mile after two runs over 1200m this prep. She showed promise on debut in a handy Cranbourne maiden, then had little luck late at Bairnsdale in what has already proven a strong form race. Expect her to be hitting the line hard at good odds.
Suggested bet: Each-way on (7) Gee And Tee and play the quinella with (4) The Pen Is Mighty and (8) Giggenbach.
Moe Race 2 No.8 Silk Sonic (save No.1 Auxiliary)
Good maiden. (8) Silk Sonic was heavily backed at her only start at Bendigo last campaign and while she didn’t land a blow for punters, she ran well. The tongue tie goes on for her resumption which suggests the stable might be on top of a niggle there and her jump-outs have been super, the most recent behind dominant first-up winner Normandy Lass. She maps perfectly for the in-form Ethan Brown and is clearly the horse to beat.
(1) Auxiliary has jumped-out nicely and has the speed to overcome the wide draw. (9) Castaway has also shown ability and won’t be a maiden for long, while (10) Le Astro Chat has an abundance of speed.
Suggested bet: Back (8) Silk Sonic to win, save on (1) Auxiliary.
Moe Race 7 No.4 Blistering
This mare was well-backed at Sale last weekend and cost herself victory by wanting to lay in late. The near-side blinker goes on to try and offset that issue and the strong tempo here should help her get into a good rhythm. Like the quick back-up and she’s drawn to get a soft run — over the odds at $7.
Suggested bet: Each-way on (4) Blistering.
Moe Race 8 No.3 Lake Forest and No.4 Roussillon
(3) Lake Forest produced a big rating to win first up at Seymour last campaign and, on the back of a strong Cranbourne jump-out, looks set to do similar here. Maps for a perfect run and can see him starting shorter than the $3 on offer.
(4) Roussillon resumes for a new stable having raced in NSW most of his career, although he did debut at Cranbourne when with James Cummings. He has trialled nicely for this and is another who maps well. The $11 looks value.
Suggested bet: Back (3) Lake Forest to win and include (4) Roussillon in exotics.
Swan Hill Race 1 No.5 Just Swift
(5) Just Swift has been given no hope in either run this campaign at Warracknabeal and Echuca but he’s hit the line strongly in each and I think he is going well. The step to a mile on a big track looks ideal and at $7.50 he appeals as a great each-way bet.
Suggested bet: Each-way on (5) Just Swift.
Swan Hill Race 4 No.6 Kezza’s Legacy
This mare has jumped-out brilliantly for the new stable and dropping way back in grade here has a terrific chance fresh. She draws out, but they have just the one bend to navigate from the 975m start at Swan Hill so not overly concerned by the map — at $7, she seems a big price.
Suggested bet: Each-way on (6) Kezza’s Legacy.
Swan Hill Race 7 No.2 Ripper and No.17 Angel of the Sea
(2) Ripper didn’t have a lot of luck late in a stronger race at Geelong first up and dropping back in grade here looks a genuine winning chance at odds. He draws for a nice run with Dean Yendall in the saddle and getting onto firm ground is ideal.
If (17) Angel of the Sea can produce anything like her best here she should be awfully hard to beat. Like the blinkers going on and getting onto a firm deck — she hasn’t seemed to relish wet tracks. Harry Coffey riding is an additional positive.
Suggested bet: Each-way on (2) Ripper and save on (17) Angel of the Sea.
