| Race | Horse | Summary |
|---|---|---|
| R7 | (10) Lady Shenandoah (BEST BET) | Top pick in The Everest – perfectly placed third-up with the right map and profile. |
| R4 | (7) Perfumist (BEST BET) | Looks the winner if she holds her recent form over the mile. |
| R6 | (15) Generosity (NEXT BEST) | Flying for Chris Waller – ready to peak third-up despite the wide draw. |
| R8 | (5) Mayfair (BEST EW) | New stable, excellent trials, maps well – value each-way play. |
Turf Talk:
- Rail +3m entire – with the dry track it should play very fair overall, lanes 1–6 in the straight look key.
Stats that matter:
- Adam Hyeronimus is striking at 32.4% over the past 90 days with a +54.1% POT.
- The Matthew Smith stable is striking at 29.0% with a +40.8% POT up to $10 SP and is effective with runners first, second, and third up.
Race by race overview
Race 1
Tricky opening to the day, but the strong last-start win of Miles Of Glory and early market support has caught my eye. The 3yo has always teased talent at the trials and finally put it somewhat together last start with an impressive win from off speed. He draws well and is on top. Snitzel Dancer brings smart form lines around Shangri La Boy and Equerry to this event – that’s impressive. Chatterley draws smartly and gets McDonald aboard; both solid pushes, but she does need to find reasonable improvement to be winning. Outside of that, Samarelle peaks third up, bringing okay event form to this event. In the mix.
Selections:
(8) Miles Of Glory
(3) Snitzel Dancer
(6) Chatterley
(5) Samarelle
Suggested Bet: Win (8) Miles Of Glory
Race 2
One of the better St Legers you’ll find. On paper, the market looks to have narrowed it down to three chances, and I tend to agree. Soul Of Spain rises significantly in the weights here but does come off a last-start G1 effort full of merit – trapped 4-wide for a lot of the Metrop before having to make a move at the 800m only to get gunned down late. The big watch is on the elite international trainer William Haggas and his galloper Sam Hawkens – his overseas figures stack right up to this field and he also gets the addition of McDonald. The early market support has come for More Felons; he gets a massive weight swing here off an eye-catching run in the Metrop – the query is his $151 SP last start. The consistent Travolta rounds out the numbers. Good race.
Selections:
(2) Soul Of Spain
(9) Sam Hawkens
(6) More Felons
(7) Travolta
Suggested Bet: Each-way (2) Soul Of Spain
Race 3
One of the more open events on the program with plenty of winning chances. I’ll lean the way of Swiftfalcon with the addition of Gibbons aboard. He loves the 1600m and especially around Randwick. His 4th in the Epsom has to be the right form. Richard and Will Freedman have Magnatear in career best form – the wide gate won’t pose any issues from the starting point, he’s right in this. Can Ducasse wind back the clock? A strong 1600m is the query, but he’ll get a suck run from the draw. Outside of that, Major Beel and Vivy Air have to go in the mix.
Selections:
(5) Swiftfalcon
(10) Magnatear
(4) Ducasse
(3) Major Beel
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 4
Simply put, if Perfumist turns up anywhere near her past two efforts, she wins this race. She failed over 1200m before recapturing her autumn form over the 1600m. She draws well enough and is the horse to beat. Idle Flyer was no match for her last start but ran a big race into second — the gate is a slight knock, but once again, the fair nature of the 1600m helps a lot. She has a smart turn of speed and is the danger. Verona Rose finally gets her ideal set-up here — a big spacious track, a smart draw, as well as a solid tempo up front. She’s ready to peak now. Shohisha has two strong peak ratings at this set-up. 1600m is her ideal trip also — I like the booking of Roper but would have preferred a better gate.
Selections:
(7) Perfumist
(10) Idle Flyer
(4) Verona Rose
(8) Shohisha
Suggested Bet: Win (7) Perfumist
Race 5 – The Kosciuszko
Hands down the hardest Kosciuszko I’ve seen to date – what a wonderful race/concept it is though. There is a huge amount of speed up front, but I love the map for Compelling Truth – he has the tactical speed to land on the bunny. He hits this race in career best form and looks well placed. Front Page is looking to make it three wins – he has to lug the 60kg this year and does look to be annoyed on speed with this added pressure. Respecting him regardless. Clear Thinking draws slightly poor – she has a sharp turn of speed which will eat up this fast tempo, and I also like the addition of the blinkers here first up. Gallant Star is the unknown – he is yet to hit his peak as a rising 6yo. The booking to Lloyd and sharp gate bring him right into this.
Selections:
(3) Compelling Truth
(1) Front Page
(11) Clear Thinking
(7) Gallant Star
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 6 – The Sydney Stakes
Smart edition of the Sydney Stakes. I’m convinced Chris Waller has Generosity flying. She hasn’t had a lot of luck in both efforts this time in, and will again need luck from gate 12, but is ready to fire. The market watch is on Golden Mile – 1200m isn’t his best trip, but he’s first up for the Pride camp off two very smart trials. Caballus draws poorly but has caught my eye again at the trials, he’ll likely roll forward from the draw and look to find a spot midfield. Iowna Merc was somewhat plain first up – typically of the Baker camp though, he should come on strongly second up. With Your Blessing hits this race in career best form, two 1400m efforts back to 1200m should be fine with the 28 days between runs. Beauty Charge rounds out the numbers at massive odds – really good fresh and must be considered.
Selections:
(15) Generosity
(3) Golden Mile
(10) Caballus
(1) Iowna Merc
Suggested Bet: Win (15) Generosity
Race 7 – The Everest
The big one – the 9th running of the $20 million Everest. Let’s start with the speed – and there is plenty of it on paper. This looks to set up for something off speed and off rails to run on from. Keen to side with Lady Shenandoah, she brings an ideal profile to this event. She ticks the tactical versatility, third-up, and 1400m+ stamina boxes that you need to win a high-pressure Everest. The cherry on top is the map. I have the utmost respect for the HK champ Ka Ying Rising, but I’m worried about the speed around him, the recent trial, the $1.50 and the 41 days between runs. He can still win, but I think he’s beatable. The 3yos have an outstanding record in this event, and the sole 3yo this year is an elite one – Tempted. She draws in, which should see her nice and positive early from the gate – she’ll need luck to get off the fence but can do so. Briasa needs cover at all costs but can’t be too far back. If Schiller can land midfield and find the back of Lady Shenandoah or Ka Ying Rising, it’s game on. Joliestar almost draws too well – I doubt she can sit on speed and withstand this high pressure, but she’ll get back and look to unleash her powerful sprint. The best roughie of the field is Angel Capital – I’m convinced he’s airborne. The gate is the query.
Selections:
(10) Lady Shenandoah
(12) Tempted
(1) Ka Ying Rising
(2) Briasa
(9) Joliestar
Suggested Bet: Win (10) Lady Shenandoah
Race 8 – The Silver Eagle
Keen to side with the Bjorn Baker-trained Mayfair in this year’s Silver Eagle. The talented gelding finds himself in a new stable this time in and couldn’t have been trialling any better. Love the draw and like the price. The big market/parade watch is on Sabaj – the lightly-raced 4yo is another who’s had a stable change between preps. Smart jumpouts and maps well. Linebacker goes in the numbers – he looks in a touch of bother from the draw and has come up very short off his typical “impressive” trials. Harlem Queen is the best roughie – her recent trial suggests she’s back in a big way.
Selections:
(5) Mayfair
(9) Sabaj
(1) Linebacker
(13) Harlem Queen
Suggested Bet: Win (5) Mayfair / Save (9) Sabaj
Race 9 – King Charles III Stakes
Outstanding edition of the King Charles III Stakes over the new 1609m – and the speed map is quite easy here; I expect speed on up front. Mr Brightside can use the kind nature of the 1609m starting point to slide across and land up on speed. With Pride Of Jenni in the race, I doubt you want to spot her more than six lengths in the run – he can stalk and run over the top. Ceolwulf’s best career effort came in this race last year. He eats up fast-run 1600m contests, draws well, and is right in this. Fangirl looks very short in the market. She was elite last start, but all of her best efforts have come off slow tempos – she tends to get found out in brutally run races. Pericles and Lake Forest are in with hopes also.
Selections:
(1) Mr Brightside
(3) Ceolwulf
(10) Fangirl
(6) Pericles
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 10
An absolute lottery to round out the program – somewhat of a field leg for those Quaddie punters. Lord Of Biscay has been lost in the market – he started $2.30 last start when pulling up lame. With 21 days between runs and McDonald sticking, he’s a huge chance to bounce back. Lavish Empire goes on top – back to her best first up and looks well placed here second up. Kerguelen, under Joe Pride, has been a model of consistency but will need a good ride from the wide draw. Sergeant Major rounds out the numbers – he’s flying and can improve third up.
Selections:
(3) Lord Of Biscay
(2) Lavish Empire
(7) Kerguelen
(19) Sergeant Major
Suggested Bet: No bet
