Bet Legends form analyst Shaun Beirne has taken a firm stance on two key runners across the major meetings at Caulfield and Rosehill this Saturday.
While both runners have attracted strong market attention, Beirne believes punters should tread carefully – particularly with the heavily backed Sir Atlas, who he says is being significantly overbet by the market.
Bet Legends is expected to hold the top price on both runners, giving punters an opportunity to either oppose short odds or take advantage of value where the market may be getting carried away.
Caulfield – Race 6: Sir Atlas
The market has latched onto Sir Atlas following his last start win, but Beirne believes the move has gone too far.
While the runner sits on top of his ratings, the Bet Legends analyst says the current price dramatically overstates the horse’s edge over the field.
“Sir Atlas looks gross unders,” Beirne said.
“Not that he can’t win – I do have him on top – but the market has read too much into that last start win and has him priced as if he has about a length and a half on this field.”
Beirne’s ratings tell a very different story.
“My figures actually have him basically level with four or five other runners in the race. With a weak pace likely, this becomes a very open contest.”
That assessment has led to a clear betting approach.
“It’s a very even race and at the current price I’ll be laying Sir Atlas.”
Rosehill – Race 9: Militarize
Group 1 performer Militarize also comes under scrutiny from Beirne, who believes punters may again be overestimating what the horse can produce second-up.
The gelding was heavily backed first-up and ran well enough, but Beirne notes the performance still fell short of his peak historical ratings.
“He was heavily backed first-up and ran well, but he was still a few lengths off his earlier personal best figures,” he said.
The big question now is whether he can return to those peak numbers immediately.
“Do we follow the tip and back him here or trust that he can’t get back to that number yet? I suggest the latter.”
Barrier one could also prove problematic by the final race of the day.
“He’s drawn barrier one which might be no prize by race nine. The pace sets up OK but James McDonald could easily end up behind a wall of horses.”
“It could be a train wreck.”
With the market gravitating toward both runners, Bet Legends punters may instead find value by taking a more measured approach – particularly in the case of Sir Atlas, where the market may have gone too far too quickly.
