Best bet: Race 5 Backing No.1 Powerbound, saving No.6 Salchow
Turf Talk:
- Rail a long way out: 9m from the 1700-800m mark and 11m the remainder.
- Strong northerly will blow into their faces down the back straight.
- Track comes up a Good 4, but you’d think with wind/hot weather it will dry right out.
- Tricky set up, wind and hot weather should dry the track/favour leaders, but headwind down back straight might offset that.
Race 2
Good race, this.
Not sure why Jessica Rabbit is so short off a very plain run at Caulfield last time out. Yes, it was a $1 million race, but it wasn’t an overly strong one. Debut was good in a reasonable form race but not mad on the inside alley and think $1.75 is too short.
Mystery ‘N’ Drama seems a big price for a filly that ran well on speed first-up at this track. The form out of that 1135m Maiden has been good and she went into it off just one soft jump-out. Key here is she maps to get across from the wide draw without too much effort.
Always had time for Prestige Stephen and think she’s got a great chance at odds. Was heavily backed late in betting at Kyneton first-up but was forced to the inferior ground there, running on well. Strips fitter here and draws a nice gate, Lachie Neindorf just needs to be on top of her out of the stalls as she’s not the best beginner.
Pinot For Mike was super late on debut in a strong form race – definitely a winning hope. Epeiric has trialled well for her debut.
Suggested bet: Small plays Mystery ‘N’ Drama and Prestige Stephen at odds.
Race 3
Speed looks reasonable. No clear-cut leader, but suspect Carleen Hefel on Olivia Rose will be keen to press forward. Numbers 6, 1, 5 (Blinkers first time) and 3 all thereabouts.
Loved the first-up run of Rumble Town at Kyneton. He was home the best last 600/400/200m split of the meeting behind a couple of smart ones. He’s drawn well for a gelding that will get back, he should be able to get into the running line and creep into the race around the home bend. If he’s within striking distance on the bend, he can put them away.
Suggested bet: Rumble Town 1×3 EW.
Race 4
This isn’t the strongest Maiden on the card.
Suspect Black Coal will run well here for new trainer Gavin Bedggood. Interesting that Bedgy goes to John Allen to ride here, who rode this bloke in his three starts for Dom Sutton. This gelding was heavily backed at Geelong on debut when running third, settling off speed on a day you wanted to be ‘up and in’. Jump-outs have been solid. 1447m fresh looks ideal. Think he runs well for the new stable.
Suggested bet: Black Coal E/W
Race 5
They’ve been very negative with tactics on Powerbound this campaign, the last two from wide gates. They drop in grade here and draw ideally – time to push the button and roll forward. He ran very well this grade in a weaker BM62 first up at Geelong when in the inferior ground. He’s a winner at the track and trip; with a good smother from the soft draw and clean air in the straight he’s the horse to beat.
Think Salchow is the main danger. He was strong late over 1300m here first up and second-up last campaign he hit the line well behind Powerbound at Ballarat. Wide draw no issue as he will get back anyway.
Lygon Street Luigi is racing consistently but he’s 26:1:10:5, and draws out/maps sticky – can’t believe he is $2.50….
Suggested bet: Keen Powerbound, saving Salchow.
