Turf Talk:
- Rail goes out to the 8m position, having been out 5m at the latest meeting.
- Was mad on-speed/inside at the most recent meeting.
- Track a Good 4, slight chance of showers, may get an upgrade.
- Advantaging those racing up on speed.
- Mornington is a tight-turning track that has a short, uphill home straight. That uphill straight can bring some horses undone. Advantage horses that have good Mornington form. Locals can often over-perform.
- 1500m start the best of those being used today, good straight run before they start turning.
Key Stats:
- Trainer Vin Hall places his horses well. Going at 19.4% from recent runners, that rises to 41.7% here at Mornington, albeit small sample size.
- Logan Bates rides this track well, he’s going at 22.9% with a PoT of 42%.
Race 2 No.5 News Travels Fast
This bloke may just be a dawn warrior, but have to have something each-way off a brilliant trial between runs. He was knocked down at Traralgon, so effectively took no part. His run first up when coming wide around a very tight-turning track at Avoca was solid. Like that Carleen Hefel jumps on having ridden him in a jump-out between runs. He draws to race right on speed, don’t mind the step to 1500m, and this is a winnable race.
Triple Time was good coming off a year on the sidelines at Pakenham first up. That was a very heavy track which would’ve been against him given the long break. Drawn awkwardly and likely spots them a start, hence can’t get him as short as the $1.60 on offer, but is the horse to beat.
Suggested bet: News Travels Fast 1×3 EW.
Race 5 No.9 Rosa Aotearoa, tiny No.7 Over Boost
Scratching of Warrior Smile helps Rosa Aotearoa, who maps to lead and control this race. Left a sitting duck at Ballarat last time out and run down by a good one in Altermatum. Stackhouse back aboard a plus – should control the race from the front and take a stack of catching.
Over Boost had pattern on side (inside was a huge advantage) here last time out but that doesn’t change the fact he should’ve trotted in. Going to need some luck from gate two, but goes well here and Nadia Daniels has now had a sit on him.
Suggested bet: Backing Rosa Aotearoa, something small Over Boost at huge odds.
Race 8 No.4 Bazaball Rewarded
Back to 1000m is the key for this mare. She simply gets too keen for the 1200m. There’s plenty of speed here, which will suit her, and from gate two she can settle just off the leading couple and pounce late. She nearly broke the track record this track and trip three back and her track and distance wins either side of that were excellent. Ideal setup.
Blethyn can improve with the blinkers going on. He has always shown good promise.
Suggested bet: Backing Bazaball Rewarded
