Turf Talk:
- Rail out 4m, the last time it was in this position was October 30 and it was a big advantage to be on speed.
- Generally bonus those runners who settle in the first couple at Warrnambool – it can be tough to make ground.
Key stats:
- Dean Yendall and Linda Meech are not surprisingly riding regular winners, going at 18% and 16% respectively from their last 100 rides.
- Jordyn Weatherley rides her home track well, going at 21.2% in her short career.
- Luke Oliver goes well when he takes horses to Warrnambool, going at 19.6% from 51 winners he’s taken to the ‘Bool.
Race 1 (MATT WELSH)
Like Royal Heritage. He showed good ability through a series of jump-outs before debuting in a hot Maiden at Werribee. He got a touch keen there when settling in behind the speed. I’d like to see Johnny Allen be more positive, push forward and have him settle right on speed.
The step up to 1200m looks ideal and this is a weaker contest than what he struck on debut.
Makarim has been given a real send-along in his jump-outs, winning his latest at Flemington by a space. The amount of gear applied for debut suggests he hasn’t been straightforward. He can run well, but I’m happy to risk him at the end of 1200m first-up.
Suggested bet: Backing Royal Heritage.
Race 2 (MATT WELSH)
Linda Meech looks the ideal jockey for Hughie’s Spirit, and if anyone is going to get him to win a race, it’s her. This is a moderate Maiden and one he should be able to lead and dictate, which would make him very hard to catch.
He’s a 27-start maiden and no star, but he ticks plenty of boxes here in a moderate race and simply looks well over the odds at around $10.
Also keen to have something on City Wok. He trialled OK prior to debut, had no luck at Mornington first-up but was strong through the line, and his run on that bog track at Pakenham in early November is forgivable. His latest effort at Mornington was very good and 1400m looks ideal.
Looking at the opposition:
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Bjarne has form on the board but has trialled very poorly
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Sirleaf was good late at Terang but will spot them a big start
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Antalian ran well last start but it was a similarly weak Maiden and the map looks a touch sticky
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One More Time resumes off a long spell and has trialled only moderately
Suggested bet: Backing Hughie’s Spirit and City Wok at $10 / $41.
Race 4 (MATT WELSH)
I think the market has this wrong.
Gwen’s Girl should be odds-on, for mine. She was excellent sitting outside the leader at Cranbourne last start, only to be nabbed late by a strong closer. She didn’t handle the sharp final bend all that well, but the rating she produced is still strong enough to win this. Getting Meech aboard is a definite plus.
She’s clearly the horse to beat. I have her closer to $1.80, so $2.20 looks value.
There are holes in Meet Me Halfway. Her Flemington jump-out was only fair and the form through her debut second at Swan Hill looks suspect. She can use gate one to settle on speed, but I’m happy to be against her at the very short quote (as short as $1.60 in the marketplace).
Suggested bet: Very keen Gwen’s Girl. Expect her to start favourite. Taking the $2.20 – best of the day.
Race 5 (MITCH LEWIS)
With a short price favourite in this race, feel that we are getting good value to back Charmed Run who looks well suited with how this race is set up. She resumes today and has previously performed well 1st up into preps (4:2-1-0) and her most recent trial work suggests she should be in good order as well. She kicks off over the 1000m trip which is her preferred distance as all 5 of her career wins have come over this distance. Expect this race to be run along quickly which should set her up well.
Suggested Bet: (1) Charmed Run (Win)
