Summary of Best Bets
Best Bet: Race 5 No.3 Cielao
Next Best: Race 7 No.6 Caladan
Value Bet: Race 2 No.2 Great Maximus
Bet recommendation: Race 4 No.1 Capulet
Turf talk:
- Expecting clear conditions race day and expect the meeting starts on a Good 4 and likely maintain this rating through the meeting.
- The rail will move in slightly from the previous meeting here and be +3m for the 1200m chute and +5.5m true for the remainder.
- Generally Murray Bridge is a very fair track due to its big size so expecting the same here today, with a slight advantage to runners who get cover in the run.
Stats that matter
- Campbell Rawiller continues to pop up in our stats due to his strong recent form returning a POT of +33.8% in his last 100 rides. He also boasts a strong record here at Murray Bridge with a winning strike rate of 17% and a POT return of +52.4%.
- Paul Preusker brings three runners across the border to this meeting and his team usually travel well to this track, producing a recent winning strike rate of 16.1% at a POT return of +43.4%.
Race 1
This race has changed shape a lot with the scratchings of the Victorian runners giving us a small field.
(2) I Catchem Fox has been consistent in recent runs with two wins in his last three starts including a tough last start win at this track when up in grade. He goes well in these conditions and sets up well again from a race map perspective, expect he will be prominent early and tough late, should be a hot chance again if he can maintain that strong recent form.
(6) Mellifluent is rising in grade after a close-finishing third last start. She raced much closer to the speed than previously and with a lighter weight and softer map from a lower barrier she could improve enough to suit this level.
(1) Bamyan Buddha took up the speed in his last start but ran along at a very fast tempo so he faded out late, he gets a soft race map again today and if he can run this at a more moderate tempo he should be stronger late.
(4) Bolt By recently won two races in a row before tackling a race over the 2000m, he faded out of that race late so should be better suited back to the 1600m today
Selections:
(2) I Catchem Fox
(6) Mellifluent
(1) Bamyan Buddha
(4) Bolt By
Suggested bet: No bet
Race 2
Can make a strong case for a few runners dropping in grade out of Listed company, but the resuming (2) Great Maximus catches the eye fresh. He has won twice previously first-up and was competitive in stronger races late last prep including a Listed fourth. He gets in well after the apprentice claim and maps well.
(4) Wiggum also ran well at Listed level last start and has strong race fitness. Expect him to be hitting the line strongly again but would prefer him over shorter.
(7) Enuff Seduction is in form and rising in grade after winning two in a row. He gets a light weight with the claim and should be strong late again.
(1) Sir Now drops in grade and rates highly but carries a big weight. A recent trial win suggests he is ready to go.
Selections:
(2) Great Maximus
(4) Wiggum
(7) Enuff Seduction
(1) Sir Now
Suggested bet: (2) Great Maximus (Each way)
Race 3
Don’t have a lot between (7) Bardigrub and (8) Carpe Astra who come out of the same strong Maiden here last start. Despite Bardigrub finishing the stronger, Carpe Astra impressed staying on after leading at a solid tempo and should improve sharply second-up with a softer run, making her appealing at the prices.
(9) Cathay Express finished in the placings on debut and maps to be prominent again with a light weight.
(11) Loseyatoetoe surprised at big odds on debut and can figure again with the right run.
Selections:
(8) Carpe Astra
(7) Bardigrub
(9) Cathay Express
(11) Loseyatoetoe
Suggested bet: No bet
Race 4
(1) Capulet was well supported last start and only caught late. This is a drop in grade and with little pressure expected on speed, she can control the race again and prove hard to run down.
(2) Coorong Tycoon rises slightly in grade and distance third-up. He has a strong record at Murray Bridge and is unbeaten at this track and distance.
(5) No Rumours should improve second-up and rising in trip. A strong tempo would suit him late.
(3) Full Of Courage has been competitive at this level and shapes as suited getting to 2000m.
Selections:
(1) Capulet
(2) Coorong Tycoon
(5) No Rumours
(3) Full Of Courage
Suggested bet: (1) Capulet (Win)
Race 5
We have been waiting patiently for the next run of (3) Cielao who has produced high ratings winning three starts this prep. This race sets up ideally with limited speed, allowing her to settle prominently. She has a strong record at 1400m and the 3kg claim further enhances her appeal.
(7) Florey won first-up before running well second-up in a stronger race. Third-up and stepping to 1400m at a bigger track should suit.
(1) Captain Joolian won a similar race last start and performs best on dry tracks, which is expected here.
(9) Rubini improved sharply last start and produced a fast late sectional. The rise to 1400m looks suitable.
Selections:
(3) Cielao
(7) Florey
(1) Captain Joolian
(9) Rubini
Suggested bet: (3) Cielao (Win)
Race 6
(2) Garcon Renard finished strongly last start in a race that has rated well since. The bigger straight should suit and he gets the benefit of an apprentice claim.
(3) Royal Scripture won well last start and that form has since been franked. The rise in distance is the query and he will need a soft run.
(1) Smother rises in grade after breaking his maiden and maps for a soft run. The mile should suit.
(4) Saint Boom has mixed form but drops slightly in grade and has performed well at this track previously.
Selections:
(2) Garcon Renard
(3) Royal Scripture
(1) Smother
(4) Saint Boom
Suggested bet: No bet
Race 7
(6) Caladan was flagged as a Blackbook horse and looks primed second up after a strong fresh run. He maps to get a soft run on speed again and has a consistent record at Murray Bridge.
(5) Mintulee has a strong track record and appears to be trending back towards her best. The wide draw is the query.
(11) Arabella Star backs up quickly after an impressive win and while rising in grade, she can measure up.
(2) Declared resumes and rates well on last prep form but may need luck early from the draw.
Selections:
(6) Caladan
(5) Mintulee
(11) Arabella Star
(2) Declared
Suggested bet: (6) Caladan (Win)
Race 8
This is a tough way to finish the meeting.
(1) Fluttering Ruby impressed early in her career and had excuses last start. With a moderate tempo expected she can land in a good position if she overcomes the draw.
(3) Purfect Line trialled well and should improve second up with the rise to 1200m.
(2) Naralinga generally hits the line strongly and may settle closer from barrier two which would suit.
(12) Damelli looks suited rising to 1200m and gets in light with the claim.
Selections:
(1) Fluttering Ruby
(3) Purfect Line
(2) Naralinga
(12) Damelli
Suggested bet: No bet
