Best bet: Race 2 No.2 Gracie’s Rain (small save No.3 Merrigold)
Best roughie: Race 8 No.6 Bianco Vilano
Next best: Race 10 No.10 Stylish
Turf talk:
- Track was a Soft 7 on Thursday after 39mm of rainfall but will dry right out with 34 forecast on Thursday. Working off a Good 4/Soft 5
- Some rain in the forecast Saturday, but not major. May have some impact if during the races.
- Rail True at Ballarat with a firmish deck = on pace has an edge.
Race 1
Small field.
(2) Maldini and (7) Savannah Chill are the most likely leaders.
Think (4) Mostly For Show is the most talented horse in the race. Big win from the tail in Adelaide at the 1200m last time out. He showed plenty of talent as a 2yo and will relish getting back to 1400m here. The knock is the map – he is awkwardly drawn and could well end up last in the small field.
(2) Maldini will be at the other end of the field. He was well backed at Cranbourne last time out and duly got the cash, but that win must be tempered a touch as he had the pattern in his favour. Rises in weight but will again have a tactical edge on rivals.
(1) Vega For Luck comes through the same race at Maldini. He had the pattern against and gets a weight swing here. He pushed forward and was narrowly beaten in the Guineas Prelude – maybe they adopt more positive tactics here?
(7) Savannah Chill has had just the two starts, winning a moderate metro Maiden on debut. She will also roll forward with Maldini and has jumped-out nicely for this.
Selections:
(4) Mostly For Show
(2) Maldini
(1) Vega For Luck
(7) Savannah Chill
Suggested bet: No thanks.
Race 2
(2) Gracie’s Rain leads. (7) Actuality presses forward with (4) Dollar Shot. Wonder what they do with (10) Macocha who is tactically versatile – suspect they use gate two. Tempo even.
(2) Gracie’s Rain goes up 2.5kg for beating a couple of key rivals in (8) Legacy Bay and (6) Sea Poem at Caulfield last time out, but she also strips fitter having been first-up there. Her form card shows 2:0:0:0 second up but she has had excuses both times. She has been a bit ‘hit and miss’ at the barriers across her career but she’s jumping better than ever for apprentice Emily Pozman – who again rides Saturday.
Keep batting up for (3) Merrigold and will again. She settled midfield in a race you needed to be on speed at Cranbourne last time out but worked to the line well. Don’t mind dropping back to 1200m and still convinced she’s going better than the form card might suggest.
(7) Actuality is down in grade here having run well on Cranbourne Cup Day. That was a fast run race won by Hearcomesthestar and she was up on the hot speed. Heavy track didn’t suit two back.
(6) Sea Poem and (8) Legacy Bay were both good behind Gracie’s Rain at Caulfield and get a weight swing.
Selections:
(2) Gracie’s Rain
(3) Merrigold
(6) Sea Poem
(7) Actuality
Suggested bet: Keen Gracie’s Rain, small something Merrigold.
Race 3
(10) Elonia and (6) Prince Tycoon the most likely leaders. Don’t think (5) Fluent will be too far away, nor (7) Ground Control or (8) Kagemusha. Tempo looks solid.
If you like (1) Harry’s Yacht here just don’t go look at his Flemington jump-out between runs. I’ve learnt he’s just not a dawn warrior, he trials terribly but thankfully brings his A-game to raceday. He is thrown in here under the set weights scale. Good win first-up, five weeks between runs but has had the jump-out to keep him up to the mark and 1200m is ideal.
(5) Fluent has the tongue tie going on here after being a beaten favourite at Bendigo first-up on Cup Day. She’s a talented mare, and she actually smoked Harry’s Yacht in a jump-out between runs. Bit of speed drawn underneath which may see her work a touch early but can win at odds.
(10) Elonia can give some cheek on speed.
(8) Kagemusha has raced exclusively on wet tracks to date but no reason to condemn him on dry. Has tactical speed and can run well here.
Selections:
(1) Harry’s Yacht
(5) Fluent
(10) Elonia
(7) Ground Control
Suggested bet: Harry’s Yacht should probably be odds on – backing him at $2.25. Something small on Fluent as well to ensure she goes around a winner.
Race 4
(9) Somewhere comes through the same race as Dark Simba and was as good a run there. The knock is he’s going to spot them a big start from the wide draw, but he is a winner steaming down the middle here at Ballarat previously.
(15) Yes I Know jumped-out nicely leading into the campaign and ran well against the pattern at Cranbourne fresh. He will spot them a start, but step to a mile is perfect and he will be strong late.
Selections:
(9) Somewhere
(15) Yes I Know
(10) Extreme Virtue
(12) Hard Prince
Suggested bet: Backing Somewhere/Yes I Know.
Race 5
Good speed. A lot of it drawn out.
(7) You’re Two Vain the likely leader but (1) Chinqui, (11) Pure Bliss and even (16) Well Held can go forward. Tempo should be strong.
Don’t think there’s too many hopes here.
(6) Scampi has trialled up brilliantly for his return from a spell. To date, his best form has been with the sting out of the ground, but going through his firmer track runs there have been excuses/reasons he wasn’t in the finish in most of those. Has terrific talent.
(12) Spirited Defence can run well at a big price. He largely raced on the synthetic over the winter and whilst he can be a touch ‘hit and miss’, his best is very good. Trials have been excellent and maps for a nice run.
(7) You’re Two Vain has great talent and he still does plenty wrong. He was tough on the Heath track last time out and he’s more than capable of keeping his winning streak going, just think he’s under the odds.
Selections:
(6) Scampi
(12) Spirited Defence
(7) You’re Two Vain
(1) Chinqui
Suggested bet: Backing Scampi/Spirited Defence.
Race 6
Provided they can make ground by this stage of the day, think (12) Shystar is the horse to beat. She was ridden up on-speed first up at Geelong and won a very strong Maiden; 2nd, 3rd and 5th have since won out of the race. Suspect they’ll ride her quieter here but there’s good speed that should enable her to get into the race late. 1400m is ideal.
(10) Tsavo can give a big sight on speed. Two runs for the new stable have been good. 1400m some query, but goes around a huge price here.
(2) Royal Flare showed very good talent prior to his debut and backed that up with a strong victory, defeating Cooly who has since won. 33 days between runs, but no issue as had a testing jump-out at Caulfield to prepare for this. Maps well and don’t think 1400m will be an issue.
(4) Ten Warriors simply should’ve won first up at Geelong. This is tougher, but can win.
Selections:
(12) Shystar
(2) Royal Flare
(10) Tsavo
(4) Ten Warriors
Suggested bet: No thanks.
Race 7
Speed comes from (10) South Of India, (11) Apache Song and (3) Major Share.
(3) Major Share should be favourite for mine. Not sure why they scratched from a suitable race last week, hope it was simply in favour of this. He was terrific behind Stokke down the straight at Flemington during Cup week, beating home Rey Magnerio (who should’ve won a Winterbottom!). Maps perfectly, 1100m ideal at this stage of the prep, and goes on wet or dry, so any rainfall no issues.
(11) Apache Song can run a race at odds. She’s far better second-up than she is first-up. And while she was putrid there at Caulfield fresh, she paraded with plenty of improvement to come. Can push forward and give a sight.
(5) Contemporary has trailled up OK for Lindsey Smith. First start for the stable – best of his form would see him in the finish here.
Selections:
(3) Major Share
(11) Apache Song
(5) Contemporary
(10) South Of India
Suggested bet: Keen Major Share. Having something small Apache Song at odds, too.
Race 8
Good speed here. Think all horses will get their chance.
(6) Bianco Vilano simply should’ve won the Wodonga Cup – he was all dressed up with nowhere to go. He’s had a few runs over the shorter trips now this campaign and importantly gets to 2000m on the back of a great run. He was narrowly beaten by a handy one in the 2000m Wagga Cup last campaign and was a moral licked in the Albury Cup, also a Listed race at 2000m. He will relish the strong tempo and he’s drawn ideally for him in the middle of the line.
(1) Liberami is flying. He gets out to the 2000m ready to peak after hitting the line strongly in an on-speed dominated race at Flemington last start. He’s had one go at the trip and ran super, against much stronger company. Provided they can make ground, he’s in the mix.
(16) Suntora is well up in grade, but she was impressive on the Caulfield Heath track last week. She’s contested some staying fillies features over the autumn but didn’t quite measure up. Think she’s really come on this campaign and if she can repeat that last start effort she can figure in the finish.
(9) Party Crasher was only second-up when winning at Flemington over the Carnival. Had plenty of favours there but again maps for a nice run and that race rated well.
Selections:
(6) Bianco Vilano
(1) Liberami
(14) Suntora
(9) Party Crasher
Suggested bet: Backing Bianco Vilano E/W
Race 9
(2) Kingswood was saved from the Eclipse last week for this and it could be the right rein. He held off (6) Saint George in the Cup Day Plate at Flemington in what looks the right form for this. He gives Saint George weight but is going to have a big head start on that galloper, who draws wide. He’s had a very good preparation this bloke, and only being fourth-up off a long spell could still have improvement to come.
(3) Air Assault wasn’t afforded the best opportunity to win in the Cranbourne Cup. Jumped well, but then continually shuffled back… Draws gate one here and imagine they will be far more positive, which will see him in the finish.
(6) Saint George was only second-up in that Cup Day Plate but was gaining on Kingswood late. Soft jump-out between runs should have him cherry ripe. The draw/map aren’t kind.
(5) Detonator Jack hasn’t won in forever, but his last two have been good. Ethan Brown dropped the whip which didn’t help his cause in the Eclipse Stakes last week. First time he’s tried a seven day back-up in his career but if he copes with it OK he can win.
(4) Berkeley Square probably isn’t quite going as well as last year when he won the race, but he has the class.
Suggested bet: Maybe something small Kingswood.
Race 10
Really strong tempo to round out the day.
(10) Stylish ticks a lot of boxes here. She was good late first-up at 1400m but should strip significantly fitter. Drawn to settle a little handier here, she should get a nice run in the race, and at $7 looks over the odds.
Shocking draw and horrible map, but wouldn’t be shocked if (5) Electric Impulse ran a race at 60/1. Was in the inferior ground first-up at Flemington and just gave out late resuming off a long spell. Generally goes well second-up and the best of her ratings are good enough.
Chances certainly don’t end there!
Selections:
(10) Stylish
(5) Electric Impulse
(14) Roadcone
(3) Sunshineinmypocket
Suggested bet: Backing Stylish. Including Electric Impulse in the quaddie.
