Best bet: Race 3 No.1 Skippers Canyon (something small also No.4 Dictionary at 60/1)
Next best: Race 8 No.10 Berkshire Breeze E/W
Best value: Race 4 Backing No.10 Angel in Black/3 Chicago Blues
Best roughie: Race 10 No.9 Windstorm (also backing No.12 Hughes at odds)
Turf Talk:
- Rail out 9m which can often bring wider lanes into play
- Southerly winds forecast, gives horses on speed a big kick along out of the sprint chute (1000, 1100, 1200m).
- The track has come up a Soft 7 after 18.8mm of rain the past 24 hours. Few showers moving through but looks like clearing before the races kick off.
- Suspect the inside will chop out and middle lanes could be right in play.
Key Stats:
- Mark Zahra has ridden 25 winners from his last 100 rides, having had a stellar Cup Carnival.
- Linda Meech comes to town in form, she’s striking at 20% from her last 100 rides.
- Trainer Matthew Dale is in form, 22 winners from his last 100 starters at a small PoT for the punters.
Don’t miss Dean Watling’s preview for Rosehill
Race 1
(2) Black Run should lead. (8) Tikemyson also up on speed.
A fair few of these come through the race won by Black Run and despite the fact he gives them all weight here, I’m not sure they can beat him. He was held up until well into the straight, unable to build momentum when Ryan Houston would’ve wanted, but was pretty dominant on the line. He was only third-up, should have more improvement to come, and the map is ideal. Soft track a positive, too.
Blinkers go back on (6) Lodbrok for the first time this campaign and I’m convinced he’s going better than his form card suggests. He’s raced well in shades before and fourth-up now he should be ready to peak.
(4) Ziryab was six weeks between runs last start when he went OK at Flemington. 2400m no issue. Gets a gun run for Zahra.
Thought (11) Genrichero hit the line strongly behind Black Run last time out.
Selections:
(2) Black Run
(6) Lodbrok
(4) Ziryab
(11) Genrichero
Suggested bet: Backing Black Run, smaller Lodbrok
Race 2
Looking through recent history of this race it has proven a good form reference. Although she didn’t win it, Point Barrow was luckless last year while Blue Diamond placegetter Tycoon Star ran second. Anamoe and Hanseatic both won it going back a few years.
(6) Luna Vega probably comes across and leads for Meech. Don’t think (2) Eternal Warrior, (11) Shinsiena or (10) Morning Whisper will be far away.
Loved what (5) Almost An Angel was able to do on the Heath track at her debut. She got back there but hammered home down the middle, posting reasonable time vs the two open age 1000m races on the same card. Would love her at 1100m, but with the benefit of race experience over a few key rivals she will be awfully hard to beat.
Have been taken by the trials of (12) Simply Steffi. She trialled alongside Almost An Angel in her most recent bit of work and moved nicely. She’s drawn to get a gun run on debut and Ben Melham-Clint McDonald are lethal when they team up. Wouldn’t be surprised to see her start shorter than the $10 on offer.
There has been good early support for the Ken and Kasey Keys-trained (1) Alibaba. Won’t miss him in the mounting yard with a big white blaze and three white socks. He got back in his latest jump-out but was strong to the line in winning on the Heath track. Willo rode him in that recent trial, which is a plus.
Morning Whisper has trialled nicely.
Selections:
(5) Almost An Angel
(12) Simply Steffi
(1) Alibaba
(10) Morning Whisper
Suggested bet: This is a tough 2yo race! Looks a deep contest.
Race 3
(3) Chakado should ensure a genuine tempo. (2) Angland, (13) Junebug, (5) Opening Address all on speed.
Good claim on last-start winner (1) Skippers Canyon sees him carry just 1kg more, conceding only half a kilo to (10) Sigiriya Rock. Skippers Canyon was first-up there and should derive plenty of benefit. He’s shown very good talent since coming over from New Zealand and the soft track is another positive. Can settle a few pairs further forward from a good gate, too.
(4) Dictionary could be one of the best roughies on the card. No luck at Moe last time out and maps for a soft run here. Goes well on soft ground.
Chakado is quickly getting from 1400m up to 1800m – which is a query – but he’s down in grade and will give a sight up on speed.
(15) Full Hao was very one-paced at the end of 1700m last time out. Step to 1800m suits and maps to do no work in the run.
Selections:
(1) Skippers Canyon
(4) Dictionary
(3) Chakado
(15) Full Hao
Suggested bet: Backing Skippers Canyon, small spec on Dictionary at 60/1.
Race 4
Very weak Group 3 race. (4) Recuperato is the highest rated horse by some 5 points at a 70 but comes into this having run last at her most recent outing!
Really good speed. (5) Naifah, (2) Regeneration, (6) Caffettiera, (8) Romantic Miss all roll forward. This should be a genuine tempo.
There is a terrific roughie here in (10) Angel In Black. She showed a stack of talent in jump-outs prior to her Pakenham debut, where she was held up at a crucial stage of the 1000m before working to the line well. She had to work out four deep around the home bend at Kyneton last start when running second to a handy one – swap the runs, swap the results. She maps for a lovely run in behind a good speed and with clean air late she can win at 30/1+.
Not sure how (1) Chergui is favourite. (3) Chicago Blues beat him home by a length last time out and had no luck – it probably should’ve been 2.5l. Granted, Chicago Blues gives up 2kg, but he also gets Ethan Brown on board and the wide draw from the 1200m is no issue, at least he will get clean air this time around!
Liked how (9) Motorsports won her maiden last time out. She has contested two pretty handy races to date and this isn’t a big step in class. Any rain will be no issue for her.
Regeneration will be hard to catch up on speed.
(7) Hi Val maps nicely and won a handy Maiden last time out. Naifah comes through the strongest form reference and should put herself right on speed without doing much work.
Selections:
(10) Angel In Black
(3) Chicago Blues
(2) Regeneration
(9) Motorsports
Suggested bet: Backing Angel In Black and Chicago Blues.
Race 5
First running of the Melbourne Classic.
(1) Different Gravy has to carry a penalty for beating a few of these in the Batman Stakes over Cup week, but not sure that’s going to pull him up. He belted them there, Mark Zahra throttling him down on the line. It was impressive how quickly he put the race to bed, steaming down the middle of the track from the tail, it was the win of a good horse. That was no fluke, he should’ve won in Adelaide the start prior and the form out of his maiden win at Swan Hill has been excellent. He may just be aptly named.
Loved the run of (8) Gold Topaz behind Different Gravy at Flemington. He has since been to Bordertown and bolted in and is drawn to get a lovely run in the race.
(3) Call Da Vinci and (2) Kaleo come through the Sandown Guineas. The former was the better run there and he has been building to a win. Willo up from gate two should see him get a reasonable run out to the 2000m and he’s got a bit of proven class on a few of these.
Selections:
(1) Different Gravy
(8) Gold Topaz
(3) Call Da Vinci
(2) Kaleo
Suggested bet: Different Gravy is well enough found.
Race 6
(2) Jenni Gone Bonkers bolted in first up (worth noting track was listed as a Soft 6 but was more like a Heavy 10!). That was a handy maiden and her form through last campaign stacks up well. Draws for a gun run. Any rain would only help her as she’s clearly adept on wet ground. Looks to have plenty of upside and strikes a moderate Listed race here.
(1) Kujenga was good this track over 1200m in the rich $1 million Thoroughbred Club Stakes here at Caulfield two weeks ago. She ran third to Autumn Boy and Sheza Alibi at 1400m in Queensland over the winter and maps for a gun run with Zahra in the saddle.
(5) Ruska Roma is drawn a tricky gate but she’s racing well. Comes out of the strong Vanity Stakes form reference where she was held up at the top of the straight before hitting the line well.
(9) Davida can give a sight up on speed. Jump-outs have been strong.
Selections:
(2) Jenni Gone Bonkers
(1) Kujenga
(5) Ruska Roma
(9) Davida
Suggested bet: No thanks
Race 7
Scratchings have knocked this around. Not a lot of natural speed on paper. (5) Poison Chalice can be more forward up to 1800m. Potentially (4) Monbaher rolls forward first up? Tricky map.
Like how (5) Poison Chalice worked to the line in the Chester Manifold last time out. He followed a similar pattern to run second in this race last year, when narrowly beaten. Mark Zahra jumping on is a plus – no one rides Caulfield better – and any rain will only help his chances.
(3) Detonator Jack was good back to the inside in the same race that Poison Chalice comes through. 1800m no issue and maps reasonable well here.
Selections:
(5) Poison Chalice
(3) Detonator Jack
(2) Casino Seventeen
(6) Rumbled Again
Suggested bet: Prefer other races.
Race 8
Good speed. (3) Smokin’ Romans likely presses forward from the deep. (4) Alenquer and (13) Alalcance also settle on speed. (7) Brayden Star right behind them from a soft gate.
(10) Berkshire Breeze represents good E/W value here for mine. Left in front a long way out in the Moonee Valley Gold Cup but ran well there. He’s been freshened up for this and trialled brilliantly at Cranbourne last week. Maps well and 2400m is ideal.
(14) She’s A Hustler appears to be looking for the 2400m now. Was strong late over 2000m at Flemington in the Matriach and is still on the way up, while a few of these have reached their peak. You can just have so much confidence when backing in master trainer Grahame Begg, too.
Alalcance comes through the same race as She’s A Hustler and whilst she was no match for her there, she was essentially first up at 2000m on very testing ground. Her rating through winning the Manion Cup – 2nd up, 2400m – last campaign would see her awfully hard to beat here.
(2) Kovalica’s record around this trip is good. Hasn’t made a regular habit of winning of late and would probably prefer it drier, but can run well.
Selections:
(10) Berkshire Breeze
(14) She’s A Hustler
(13) Alalcance
(2) Kovalica
Suggested bet: Berkshire Breeze E/W
Race 9
Speed solid. (3) Marble Nine probably leads from the deep. (2) Lim’s Kosciuszko right there along with (6) Boston Rocks and (7) Major Share.
Was originally keen on Major Share….This race is significantly tougher on the Soft 7.
Botson Rocks posted a strong rating when winning the Village Stakes this track and trip last start. Soft track isn’t ideal but drawn well and should get a nice run on speed.
Interesting runner is (1) Bellatrix Star. Coming back from a fractured neck here. Best of her would be awfully hard to beat. Jump-outs have been solid, but she did get extremely keen in her first hit-out and that’s something she can do on raceday. Soft ground a big plus but gate is tricky for a mare that gets back.
Rain definitely advantages both Marble Nine and Lim’s Kosciuszko. (10) Grand Larceny proved he’s adept in the wet at Flemington last start, too.
Selections:
(6) Boston Rocks
(1) Bellatrix Star
(5) Aviatress
(3) Marble Nine
Suggested bet: No bet.
Race 10
Speed strong. (7) Magnaspin, (15) Proved, (4) Catoggio all press forward. (1) Here To Shock can also use gate two.
Deep race to finish.
Giving the Bedggood pair of (9) Windstorm and (12) Hughes a hope at big odds.
Windstorm comes through the same race as the favourite – (13) Persian Spirit. He was badly held up much of the straight and whilst he wouldn’t have beaten the winner, he should’ve finished a lot closer. Gets a 6kg weight swing in his favour on Persian Spirit, too. He loves it here at Caulfield and any rain is a big plus for him.
Hughes has trialled up very nicely for this return. He’s a ‘winner’ and Logan Bates gets on extremely well with him: 6:4-0-1. Hopefully by this stage of the day they are able to get home down the middle of the track.
Persian Spirit was dominant winning on Cup Day. He’s had a terrific campaign. Pattern was against two back at Geelong and two runs down the straight prior were excellent. Gate four late in the day might be a little tricky if the rain has come and they’re getting away from the fence – he’s a backmarker who will be behind most of the field in the run – but he only needs to hold something like his form to prove awfully hard to beat.
(14) Big Swinger was OK down the straight first-up at 1200m and I think he is better suited at this trip.
Selections:
(9) Windstorm
(12) Hughes
(13) Persian Spirit
(14) Big Swinger
Suggested bet: Something E/W Windstorm, also having something on Hughes
