Summary of Best Bets:
Best Bet: Race 10 No.5 Touchdown
Next Best: Race 9 No.4 Café Millenium
Two-bet Play: Race 6 backing No.1 Dublin Journal / No.6 Suntora
Turf Talk:
- First meeting since November 29, so should be fresh ground after a renovation.
- Default position with rail True on a firm deck would advantage on-speed runners.
- Keep an eye on the northerly wind, which blows into their faces from the sprint chute.
Race 1
(7) Slane looks the leader. (5) Taken probably sits outside the leader in the small field.
Tricky little race. Not sure I can come at the short odds about Taken. 40 days between runs, 1400m to 1700m, are both concerns. That said, he did trial reasonably at Sandown on January 15. Tough, on speed galloper who will be in a long way, but $2.25 looks skinny.
(2) Smokin’ Princess’ summer form this time last year has her the horse to beat. She had one run at The Valley in the spring and was disappointing but has been given a number of trials leading into this preparation and has looked excellent. Her best ratings put her right in the finish and her fresh form – barring the miss in spring – is good.
(6) Merrigold is airborne. Wasn’t stopping on the line over a mile at Flemington last time out and has a fitness edge on key rivals. Maps to sit one-one, which will give her every chance.
Selections:
(2) Smokin’ Princess
(6) Merrigold
(5) Taken
(3) Verdad
Suggested bet: Level staking (2) Smokin’ Princess/(6) Merrigold (i.e. winning on both, but Smokin’ Princess going for a much better result)
Race 2:
Here we go with the first of the Blue Diamond Previews.
Toppy, (1) Eurocanto looks awfully hard to beat. The form through his Maribrynong Trial win has stacked up well. Jump-outs leading in have been first rate. Maps for a super run from gate three.
Best value I the race might be (9) Silent Grit. Have liked his two recent Ballarat jump-outs and seems a big price at $27.
(3) Alibaba came off the bit early on debut in the Merson Cooper but picked up in the straight and arguably should’ve gone close to winning. Has plenty of ability, but still learning the caper and do think he will be better at 1100m and 1200m. Can win, but short enough at $4.
(8) Invicto really improved from his first two jump-outs into his third. Wide draw into the northerly wind might be some concern but in the right stable, has a top jockey up and clearly has talent.
Selections:
(1) Eurocanto
(9) Silent Grit
(3) Alibaba
(8) Invicto
Suggested Bet: Happy to watch and learn
Race 3:
The Fillies Preview looks clearly the stronger of the two divisions. This is a quality race. Scratching of Jadiza changes things.
(6) Angels Fury looks a real professional. Her two jump-outs this time in have been exquisite. She should press forward from gate ten and put herself in the early firing line and 1000m coming off sharp 650m and 800m jump-outs is ideal. The little concern, which I don’t want to overplay before seeing races play out, is if the northerly wind were to get up. She’s ready to rock.
‘Barbara’ (1) Streisand has race experience on her side. She has jumped out well enough for this.
(11) La Gitana has speed to burn and from gate three she should lead them. Looks an out and out speedster that will run well at the 1000m.
Not sure 1000m is (14) Rubi’s Choice’s go, but she has ability and will be winning her share of races in time.
Race certainly doesn’t end there.
Selections:
(6) Angels Fury
(1) Streisand
(11) La Gitana
(14) Rubi’s Choice
Suggested Bet: With the scratching of Jadiza, I can back both Angels Fury and Streisand.
Race 4:
Good speed here which will suit (14) Supercilious. She has been strong late in both 1200m runs this campaign and now steps to 1400m, which looks ideal.
Think (5) Nodachi can run better than the $41 price would suggest. Has been back to the jump-outs between runs and moved well. Was plain at her first run for Nikki O’Shea but maps well here and 1400m looks ideal.
The toppy (1) Le Ferrari went quite hard at Geelong and stuck on well. Can give a sight on speed. 1400m no issue.
Selections:
(14) Supercilious
(5) Nodachi
(1) Le Ferrari
(13) Everain
Suggested Bet: Backing Supercilious and Nodachi
Race 5:
Not overly keen on this race.
The toppy (1) Salsa Fellow will need a bit of luck from the low draw but he’s unbeaten second-up and liked his return at Flemington.
(4) Declared was terrific first-up at Murray Bridge. Best late splits of the meeting in what was a dominant win. From behind suspect the map might be his issue, drawn low he is going to need a bit of luck/a good ride at a crucial stage.
(10) Expulsion stays down in the weights after a strong win first-up. This is a good deal tougher but has upside.
Selections:
(1) Salsa Fellow
(4) Declared
(10) Expulsion
(2) Along The River
Suggested Bet: Happy to watch
Race 6:
Sheesh, this is a moderate race.
(6) Suntora ticks a lot of boxes and getting down to 54.5kg with Jackson Radley’s claim is appealing. She has raced well all campaign and the step back to 2000m after contesting an 1800m race at Flemington last time out is attractive.
Suspect (1) Dublin Journal can run well here, despite lumping 62.5kg. This is the weakest race he has contested in some time and his work late in the Coastal Classic was excellent. 2000m now suits.
(9) Active Duty maps to get a nice run on speed and can run well on the quick back-up, getting to 2000m.
Selections:
(6) Suntora
(1) Dublin Journal
(9) Active Duty
(7) Steel Run
Suggested Bet: Backing Suntora and Dublin Journal
Race 7:
Good speed.
Like (6) Geegees Mistruth. Her two runs in spring for Mark Walker were excellent. Work late in a recent trial was super. If she can reproduce her rating of first-up this track and trip in the Caulfield Sprint last spring then she will be in the finish. If there’s one little concern, it’s her getting off the bit and chasing a long way from home off what looks a hot tempo.
(4) Oak Hill has trialled up nicely. He’s a gun fresh horse and a ripper at 1000m. Produced a big turn of foot to win fresh at The Valley last campaign.
(2) Way To The Stars is in the mix. Produces his best fresh, but they’ve tried to keep him on the fresher side with six weeks between runs. Excellent trial in Sydney to keep him up to the mark.
Selections:
(6) Geegees Mistruth
(4) Oak Hill
(2) Way To The Stars
(1) Insurrection
Suggested Bet: Monitor track and wind, Geegees Mistruth if swoopers advantaged
Race 8:
Good race. But a very even race.
First time (3) Romantic Encounter hasn’t seen 1200m (all runs last campaign were 1300m plus) but loved how sharp he was in a recent Flemington trial, beating Oak Hill. He should be able to use gate one and settle handy to the speed.
(5) Cyber Link has always trialled well then backed that up with a strong maiden win at Pakenham, posting a solid rating. Can push forward and be in this a long way.
(7) Miss Ole has trialled brilliantly between runs. Expect notable improvement on her first-up effort.
Always had an opinion of (10) Conscience and liked the way she got home first-up over 1100m.
Race doesn’t end there.
Selections:
(3) Romantic Encounter
(5) Cyber Link
(7) Miss Ole
(10) Conscience
Suggested Bet: Tough race, wide in the quaddie
Race 9:
(3) Regal Zeus should ensure a genuine tempo. Race smashed with scratching of Zou Sensation.
If they can run on then, gee, (4) Café Millenium has a huge chance. His form since joining the Hayes stable has been excellent. His win over Transatlantic looks even better now than it did at the time and a recent trial at Pakenham suggested he was ready to rock ‘n’ roll fresh. Drawn out and will get back, but there looks a genuine tempo here. Celine Gaudray knows him well, too. Ticks a lot of boxes.
Selections:
(4) Café Millenium
(11) Justadeel
(2) Regal Zeus
(1) Attrition
Suggested Bet: Something Cafe Millenium
Race 10:
Not sure how they beat (5) Touchdown. He’s a ripper. Should be unbeaten this campaign if not for misguided tactics at Ballarat. Held Fiorenot relatively comfortably two back, who has since beaten (12) Yes I Know twice. Got the 60kg but won with 60.5kg two back and he’s simply a better horse than these. Five weeks between runs but worked through the line strongly in a Werribee jump-out in that time.
Yes I Know is on the quick back up. Sat up on a hot tempo with the blinkers on for the first time last week and probably didn’t quite see out the 1800m. Back to 1600m looks ideal.
Selections:
(5) Touchdown
(12) Yes I Know
(1) Black Storm
(4) Sunsets
Suggested Bet: Touchdown looks awfully hard to beat
