Summary of Best Bets:
Race 3 No.5 Hedonist – Blew them away last start when over this distance for the 1st time
Race 5 No.2 Our Chief (Next Best) – Last start winner, gets a favourable race map and sets up well again
Race 8 No.3 Gallant Son (Best) – Looks a class type who looks to continue to rise through the grades
Race 10 No.16 Stealth Of Night – Progressive mare who sets up well again
Turf Talk:
- Forecast for warm weather Saturday but not to the level that we saw last week but still expect the meeting will be run majority on a Good 4 surface
- The rail gets pushed out slightly from last week’s position and will be +4m the entire
- In similar track conditions recently it has been a slight advantage for runners to settle forwards of midfield in the run so expects those on speed get advantages again here today.
Stats that matter:
- Dean Yendall has found some strong recent form; he has ridden 20 winners in his last 100 rides with a POT of +24.2% and is booked for 2 rides on this program
- Ciaron Maher’s stable has maintained momentum this week with some bigger races around the corner, the team is still producing a positive POT of +27.3% with 21 winners from their last 100 starters
Race by race overview
Race 1:
(6) Jenni’s Meadow put in a very strong performance last start in a similar race when running a close 2nd to the in-form Saint George. She remains at a light weight again which looks her key advantage against rivals in this.
(1) Bold Soul comes out of the same race that Jenni’s Meadow does and was hitting the line stronger of the two runners but will carry more weight in this race, it is a similar set up so think he can perform well again but the weight evens it out.
(4) Milford gets to an appropriate trip now 3rd up into this prep and looks likely to be closer to finding his better form now in a more ideal set up.
(7) Tarvue is another lightweight chance who looks likely to get a soft run from the inside barrier, dropping back to the 2000m should suit her better and can help her manage the rise in grade.
Selections:
(6) Jenni’s Meadow
(1) Bold Soul
(4) Milford
(7) Tarvue
Suggested Bet: No bet, open start to the meeting
Race 2:
(12) Du Clisson looks to take a step up in level for this race but is coming in with strong form winning her last two starts. She has a strong record at the 1000m and looks likely to race in a positive position; she is capable of handling the rise in grade here with a favourable set up.
(11) Rhia is another mare who is on a winning streak and comes into this race with two wins in a row this prep, she has been a winner 3rd up previously and is undefeated at the 1000m, barrier two looks like an advantage if the track is quick.
(2) Castellar ran a close 3rd in his last start behind a handy type and could be fitter for that run 2nd up now. He remains at a distance he has a strong record at but needs to overcome the wide barrier in the early stages.
(7) Runlikenencryption opted to race here over a winnable race Friday night, she has a good record over the 1000m and maps to be positive in the run, she has had good early market support.
Selections:
(12) Du Clisson
(11) Rhia
(2) Castellar
(7) Runlikenencryption
Suggested Bet: No bet here in a race that looks very open, and the market reflects that
Race 3:
(5) Hedonist was super impressive when winning last start up at the 1400m for the first time. He produced a career best performance to break a track record and has now won two of his last three runs. Maps well from barrier 1 and in career best form which should help him handle the weight rise.
(10) Illyivy is talented and drops in grade today, but has been slow away in two runs this prep, she is 3rd up today and peaking in fitness if she can get away cleanly and settle closer in the run, she has the turn of foot to be running over the top late.
(3) Inexorable has improvement to give 2nd up here after a moderate 1st up run. Dry track conditions suit and getting back around a bend could help him find the required improvements to be a threat.
(12) Two Wolves takes a step up in grade off the back of a win rising up to this trip, he may get back in the run so a fast tempo could set him up for a run.
Selections:
(5) Hedonist
(10) Illyivy
(3) Inexorable
(12) Two Wolves
Suggested Bet: (5) Hedonist (Win)
Race 4:
(6) Sun Gift has won two in a row and is in super form, she rises to the 2400m trip which is a distance he has had success at previously so she can continue her recent form in this set up.
(8) American Wolf was scratched from a winnable race Wednesday to come here and gets a good set up with a soft race map where he can find a steady lead and he is peaking in fitness 3rd up so the rise to the 2400m distance now looks suitable.
(4) Dictionary is a last start winner over the 2500m trip, dropping back to the 2400m should prove no issue given his super record at this distance (5:2-1-1) so suggest he can build on that winning form.
(7) Stylish Secret gets up to the 2400m trip for the first time this prep which looks ideal, he was a winner over this set up to finish last prep and gets a light weight for this.
Selections:
(6) Sun Gift
(8) American Wolf
(4) Dictionary
(7) Stylish Secret
Suggested Bet: No bet, little appeal betting into a very even staying race.
Race 5:
(2) Our Chief was a deserved winner last start after a pair of solid performances to kick off the prep. Backing him to be able to carry on that way and win again here in what looks another good set up for him. Jumping from barrier 1 should see him settle in a good position early in the run which is expected to suit and with that softer race map, the drop back to the 1800m should prove no concern.
(4) Falset Star hit the line strongly last start despite not getting the easiest of runs in the straight, he looks ready for the longer trip now based on how he was finishing off over the 1400m last start.
(1) Jenni Gone Bonkers hasn’t missed the top 3 in 4 runs this prep and was 2nd in a Listed race earlier this prep, she may be the class runner of the field but is up for a test with a big weight on her back over this distance.
(5) Komito was an improver 2nd up to go on and win at Werribee at a short price, he can build off that performance looking suited up to the 1800m.
Selections:
(2) Our Chief
(4) Falset Star
(1) Jenni Gone Bonkers
(5) Komito
Suggested Bet: (2) Our Chief (Win)
Race 6:
(1) Big Sky looks the runner to beat here having put in an impressive run on debut at Flemington to win easily, he maps well from barrier 2 and with some early speed should be in an ideal position in the run.
Queenslander (4) Lady Of Five has her first run down south having showed good talent in stronger races to kick off her career. If she can run up to that level here, she should go close but would have been keener if she had showed a little more in a recent Sandown trial.
(5) Mirador was well supported to win on debut but found Big Sky too sharp there, she is expected to have taken improvement out of that debut run and can go close again.
(7) Jadzia was a recent trial winner at Sandown and looks the best of the runners who make their debut here today.
Selections:
(1) Big Sky
(4) Lady Of Five
(5) Mirador
(7) Jadzia
Suggested Bet: No bet, Big Sky looks the winner but represents little value to be betting in the race
Race 7:
(7) A Little Deep is 4 weeks between runs but is a good performer when fresh, she was shaded by Aviatress in their last start against each other but feel that A Little Deep gets a better race map for this today and can settle in a stronger position, she has been building well and previously performed well at Caulfield so like this set up she gets.
(4) Aviatress looks to get her chance for another win this prep dropping back to mares’ grade and getting back to a track she has a good record. If she can avoid getting too far back from barrier 3 and settle around that midfield position, she should get every chance in a favourable set up.
The resuming (3) Damask Rose rates highly and has a good record 1st up but despite a consistent record over this distance she may be better suited over a further trip later into the prep and barrier 1 for her could prove tricky if she gets back in the run which and she may be needing luck for a run late.
(1) Wrote To Arataki wouldn’t surprise at a big price here today, she resumes off the back of two winning trials and has a positive race map here which may see her find the lead which may suit on this track.
Selections:
(7) A Little Deep
(4) Aviatress
(3) Damask Rose
(1) Wrote To Arataki
Suggested Bet: No bet here, this feels very open at the top of the market and found them hard to split
Race 8:
Sticking with (3) Gallant Son to be able to win again here after a good 1st up performance at Flemington. He was too good down in that grade despite a big weight and again remains at benchmark level which suits a runner who is proven at stronger levels. 2nd up and fitter and a slight rise in distance suits, suggest he can continue to rise through the grades.
(5) Gracie’s Rain drops back in grade having tackled a Listed race in her last start, she should find this easier and returning to the 1100m distance looks ideal as she has a strong record over this distance (5:3-1-0) and she looks likely to put some speed into this race in the early stages from the wide barrier.
(4) Rue De Royale was a good winner two starts back and is in good form now. He steps up in grade today but will be better suited dropping well down in weight, his best form is good enough to win at this level if he can find it.
(6) Sweethearted is a consistent performer, and she has a good turn of foot, if they run this race along quickly she maps to be in a good position and gets a chance to be running over the top of them late.
Selections:
(3) Gallant Son
(5) Gracie’s Rain
(4) Rue De Royale
(6) Sweethearted
Suggested Bet: (3) Gallant Son (Win)
Race 9:
(8) Pure Alpha is 3rd up into this prep now and looks suited rising to a trip that will suit at the 1800m. He has been building well this prep and in this set up looks likely to get every chance to find his best form.
(7) Midnite Storm impressed when winning his Australian debut for a new stable. He looks suited rising in distance as his best may be yet to come as he gets over longer distances but has some work to do here from a wide barrier.
(13) Extreme Virtue had some excuses in her last start so expect she can bounce back with a better set up here. She maps well and can put a good speed into this race at a track she has a good record at.
(2) Brung King has previously been at his best on wet tracks but has been impressive in his last two starts winning on dry ground. Hard to knock his winning form and he could improve enough to be a hope in this.
Selections:
(8) Pure Alpha
(7) Midnite Storm
(13) Extreme Virtute
(2) Brung King
Suggested Bet: No bet, tough enough race to want to be investing into
Race 10:
(16) Stealth Of Night looks a progressive type who is taking another step up in grade today. She is undefeated at the 1400m distance and looks likely to get a soft race map from barrier 2 which should see her be given every chance again and expect she can continue to progress through the grades.
(1) Harry’s Yacht may have found the rise to the 1600m too much last start so coming back to the 1400m and dropping in grade should see him find some improvement also.
(9) Porter is in good form and has a super record over the 1400m distance, he needs luck from a wide barrier but if he can find a good position early in the run he should be competitive again in this grade.
(6) Zouper Fund kicked off this prep with a win and a close finishing 3rd last time, this is his 1st look at the 1400m trip but is at peak fitness 3rd up now and has won 3rd up previously.
Selections:
(16) Stealth Of Night
(1) Harry’s Yacht
(9) Porter
(6) Zouper Fund
Suggested Bet: (16) Stealth Of Night (Win)
