Betsy’s Set: Caulfield Guineas Day

Race 1 – 1700m BM80

Good speed here. (1) Al Duca the most likely to lead. But, drawn out, (7) Nation’s Call has a decision to make while (8) Nearing Liberty won’t be far away. Tempo should be above average.

Loved the run of (11) Amleto first-up in a race here at Caulfield that also featured Al Duca and Nation’s Call. Amleto got back to last in a race run to suit the leaders but was strong late, despite wanting to lay in quite badly. He really got going once Luke Cartwright got the whip into the left hand late in the race. Gun jockey Ethan Brown takes over here which offsets the increase in weight and I like the wide draw as he will get back anyway. Query is he is second-up off a long spell, but we are getting $12 to find out.

Nation’s Call is going to need a lot of luck from the wide gate, but he was awesome without luck first up behind Al Duca. They will have the wind at their back the first section of this race which will help and I can’t not send him around a winner.

Al Duca is airborne, but is climbing up in the weights staying in 78 grade, suddenly carrying 62.5kg. He makes his own luck on speed, which will always take him a long way, but there’s a bit of pressure to absorb here.

(10) Overactive seems to be looking for this trip and the strong tempo should suit him. Drawn ideally, too.

Selections:
(11) Amleto
(7) Nation’s Call
(10) Overactive
(14) Oraqua

Betting suggestion: Backing Amleto, smaller Nation’s Call.

Race 2 – 1200m 3yo Fillies

Jumping out of the sprint chute here so there’s a 700m straight run before the home bend.

Speed likely from (2) Vein Girl, (12) Barari and maybe (10) Torsheen. There’s a number of horses that can be ‘right there’: (14) Quickaz, (13) Unobscured and (8) Immerse. Suspect they ride (7) Vivid Sun quieter here after she failed up on a hot tempo last start.

Just a massive fan of (5) Point Barrow and I think she gets the perfect setup here. She is crying out for 1200m and a wide draw is ideal for a filly that gets back and needs room to wind up. She should get out into the wider lanes that can come into play at Caulfield (~10+) and charge at them late.

Vivid Sun was super first up and happy to put a pen through last start where she was out of her comfort zone early. She seems a get back, run on sprinter at this stage of her career, and if she can reproduce her rating from that fresh run at Sandown she will be hard to beat.

Loved the debut win of (15) Tres Magnifique at Ballarat and the form out of the race has been strong. She trialled well prior to that and the step to 1200m (from 1000m) is only further a positive. She will be super strong late.

(6) Surf’s Up is drawn out, but don’t see that as a major negative, especially with westerly winds forecast. She has been good in both runs this campaign and ratings she brings south are good enough to be competitive.

Selections:
(11) Point Barrow
(7) Vivid Sun
(15) Tres Magnifique
(11) Sassy For Sure

Betting suggestion: Backing Point Barrow.

Race 3 – Herbert Power Stakes

Moderate edition of the race.

Can’t believe I’m doing this to myself again, but I think (8) Brayden Star is over the odds. He probably went a touch hard in the Naturalism last time out. He ran very well in this race last year – an edition that probably had more depth – before being desperately unlucky in the MV Gold Cup. He looks ready to peak now fourth-up off a long spell and at $8 appears over the odds.

(2) Post Impressionist needs a race with some tempo, coming out of a couple of slowly run races. There’s a few go-forward horses, so he might get that here. Think he’s going better than the formguide suggests and like Ethan Brown taking the ride.

(9) Plymouth had a lot in his favour at Benalla when winning their Cup. He does drop to 53kg now and is still on the up – whereas many of these are past their best – but I just can’t get him as short as $3.50. Can win, but looks unders.

Selections:
(8) Brayden Star
(2) Post Impressionist
(9) Plymouth
(3) Young Werther

Betting suggestion: Could have very small plays on Brayden Star and Post Impressionist

Race 4 – 1600m Vase

(2) Jennilala leads for fun here. Think (5) Oh Too Good just as clearly sits second. The one that might influence the speed is (6) Sea What I See, who is drawn out – suspect Willo presses forward.

Gee, this race sets up nicely for Jennilala. She resumed in the Group 1 Rupert Clarke and was up on a hot tempo there, battling on well to run 8th in a race set up for the backmarkers (Sepals did a huge job!). To draw a reference, Jennilala finished ahead of Arkansaw Kid who was up on speed with her and whilst he might be more a 1200m horse, I think that’s a fair endorsement. Her second up record reads horrendously, but she has only had one preparation with Gavin Bedggood and she was quite good second up in the Queen of the South last campaign. Another of those second up runs she was beaten less than two lengths in a Coolmore in Sydney.

(12) Pondalowie is airborne! I just wish she’d drawn a gate. Love the quick back-up and I think she will be the strongest of the backmarkers. Have to have something on, but the setup is ugly again.

(5) Oh Too Good is a ripping mare. She will get a gun-run trailing Jennilala and she’s unbeaten third up. She was up on a reasonable tempo in the Stocks Stakes, but would’ve liked to see her stick on a touch better to be considering taking $2.60. She also gets Synthetic Hoof Filler here, which is far from the end of the world, but it’s not ideal when taking short odds. She can win, but not sure she’s in career best form.

Selections:
(2) Jennilala
(11) Pondalowie
(1) Rumbled Again
(5) Oh Too Good

Betting suggestion: Backing Jennilala, smaller Pondalowie. Would include Rumbled Again in everything.

Race 5 – Weekend Hussler Stakes

Like (8) King Zephyr but would need a better price to play. Forget The Valley run two back where he didn’t get around the tight track and wasn’t suited by the tempo. He’s got plenty of potential and the 1400m is his sweet spot. That said, odds on is too short up in grade, albeit this is a moderate race.

Think the toppy, (1) Amenable has been trialling up well and can run a race first up. He maps to sit right on speed here and should be in it a long way.

(3) Zou Sensation stuck on well in a fast Rupert Clarke Stakes. Drawn to get a soft run and had a nice little tick-over jump-out between runs.

(2) Benagil will be better over further but she has trilaled up nicely and the small field aids her chances at 1400m.

Selections:
(8) King Zephyr
(1) Amenable
(3) Zou Sensation
(2) Benagil

Betting suggestion: No thanks

Race 6 – Might and Power Stakes

Farcical contest.

(4) Globe leads. Suspect (5) Treasurethe Moment sits second, just a matter of how far off Globe Damian Lane wants to sit. (2) Buckaroo next.

Treasurethe Moment was forced to work really hard in the mid-stages of that Feehan behind Pride of Jenni, and whilst defeated, she comfortably accounted for a few handy rivals who were in behind. She was four weeks into that off a setback, now backs up 15 days later, and should have derived good benefit form that run. Think she’s the horse to beat, just with the query on how much that setback has impacted her campaign.

Buckaroo equally surged in the mid-stages of his last start effort, in the Underwood. He was beaten by a potential superstar there in Sir Delius and he just peaked on the run late (very moderate L200), suggesting he should have further fitness improvement to come. Drawing off the fence allows him to stalk Treasurethe Moment and he clearly loves Caulfield.

Globe lacks the class of his two major rivals but he is bloody fit coming off two hard-run races and I suspect Shinn will try and get them rolling from at least the mid-stages of the race, as he isn’t going to beat them in a sit-sprint. Would be a surprise if he won, but these races can be tactical, and Shinn is capable of taking advantage of that.

Betting suggestion: You know they’re on at Hamilton and Manangatang and winners pay the same there?

Race 7 – Toorak Handicap

Speed is muddling. (5) Sepals has the speed to lead if Brown wants. (6) Transatlantic and (3) Evaporate can also press forward. Maybe Evaporate leads, but they don’t look like they will break any records. (1) Desert Lightning should get a good run 1 x 1.

Sepals’ win in the Sir Rupert Clarke was huge. He was up on a hot tempo – they nearly broke the track record – and was the only one of the on-pacers to stick on. Sure, maybe Angel Capital should’ve beaten him, but he isn’t here! He has had the perfect grounding to get to the mile now and draws ideally. Against him is the 5kg weight rise, but this isn’t a vintage Toorak and frankly he’s a really talented horse.

Transatlantic has built beautifully to this grand final. First up run at Flemington was left in front a long way out but stuck on well. His work past the post when narrowly defeated by Evaporate screamed that he was ready for the mile now.

Evaporate gets his chance to control the tempo here and he probably has some fitness improvement to come off that Sandown Stakes win having been 42 days between runs heading into it.

(7) Lazzura and (9) Leica Lucy both come through the Let’s Elope Stakes. Lazzura was absolutely hammered in betting there before getting a lovely run in the race. I thought she was entitled to win a little easier, to be frank, but she’s only going to strip fitter for that. The benefit is she has good tactical ability, so McDonald can be more forward if they walk early, otherwise just tuck in for a soft run behind the leading quartet. On the other hand, Leica Lucy is going to be out the back, but she does have a ripping turn of foot. She went past subsequent winner Splash Back late in that Let’s Elope and the step to a mile suits here.

Selections:
(5) Sepals
(6) Transatlantic
(3) Evaporate
(9) Leica Lucy

Suggested Bet: Think market has this right.

Race 8 – Caulfield Guineas

The feature. Not the strongest Guineas in recent years, but the winner will still pay the same.

Either (3) Vinrock or (15) Romantic Encounter look the most likely leaders. (5) West Of Swindon and (16) Observer right there. Speed should be even to above average.

Either you’re a massive believer in the Golden Rose form – as the market is – or this race is wide open. I’m not sold on any of the form lines leading into this.

Instead, I’ve gone with the open age form Observer brings coming out of a BM66 at Sandown. Reckon he was beaten by a handy one there in Thebelmontgangster, who had trialled up brilliantly prior, and Observer raced like a horse desperate for the mile. He is going to get a lovely run right on speed and whilst Zahra jumps off to ride Vinrock, he has an equally skilled rider in Ethan Brown jumping in the saddle.

I hope (17) Centu Cavaddi gets a run because he has a huge hope. He won a very strong maiden on debut at Doanld and was terrific up the straight whilst still being very green at Sandown in a key lead-up race. He may well demolish the mile, he’s drawn to maybe settle a little handier up to the trip and I think he’s got immeasurable upside.

The more I watch the Stutt Stakes the more I am prepared to be forgiving of Vinrock. He not only missed the start, but he was between horses for much of the race and never able to build the revs. This is Grand Final Day and they have the wind at their back early, Zahra will likely be positive out of the gates and quickly get this colt up on speed. He’s always looked like a miler, so the trip is no concern.

Of those coming out of the Rose, the one who is most suited on Saturday seems (9) Autumn Boy. He will definitely relish the mile and he should get a soft run from gate one, although D Lane is going to need to weave some magic to get clear late.

His stablemate Wodeton was the best of the also rans in the Golden Rose, finishing second to Beiwacht there, albeit he was on superior ground to a couple of key rivals. He’s a consistent colt – I think we can describe him as that now – but he doesn’t seem to have that killer punch many thought he possessed after that devastating debut win. He maps for a nice enough run, and can win what is an even Guineas, I just think he’s a false favourite.

The Price-Kent Jnr pair of Space Rider and Planet Red are two I would including in wider exotics at a big price.

Selections:
(16) Observer
(17) Centu Cavaddi
(3) Vinrock
(9) Autumn Boy

Betting suggestion: Going wide in exotics and quaddie

Race 9 – Schillaci Stakes

Good speed here. (6) Tropicus, (3) Queman and (2) Golden Boom all like to roll along. (8) Arabian Summer wont be far off those.

Even race.

Tropicus seems to love Caulfield. His win at this track and trip first up was super. He has been kept fresh for this but had a little tick-over trial vs Giga Kick and Niance on the Heath circuit, where he went nicely. He will press forward, make his own luck, and prove very hard to run down.

(4) Nadal has been scratched a few times, his return now long-awaited! Loved his trails, he won fresh at 1100m last campaign – albeit in BM78 grade – and gets a strong tempo to suit.

(1) Giga Kick’s best is the best of those in this field, but will he ever recapture it? His trial, for mine, was just a pass mark. His two runs last campaign weren’t good enough to win this. Can’t see enough to suggest he is going to find something like his best here.

(9) Niance is going to need a little bit of luck off the low draw but she was strong late after being pratted deep in the Moir and the step to 1100m is more suitable.

(6) Tropicus
(4) Nadal
(9) Niance
(2) Golden Boom

Suggested bet: Not at this stage

Race 10 – Northwood Plume Stakes

Provided you can make ground from the tail, Ameena deserves favouritism. She wasn’t beaten far by Charm Stone in the Sangster and finished alongside Giga Kick in the Goodwood. She was luckless in the Manikato last time out and drops in grade here. A lovely race for her to post another win.

(12) Vestas is a mare I’ve always had plenty of time for, but she didn’t fire in two runs last campaign. Her first jump-out this time was electric, before she was given a very quiet time in her latest. Drawn for a gun run, if she produces her best she will be in the finish.

Like the wide draw for (3) She’s Bulletproof as she likes her space. She can take her time coming across from the alley and if she can find her best she will be awfully hard to beat. Thought she jumped-out just fairly prior to a plain run fresh, but she has been given a solid hit out in a jump-out since and went OK.

Selections:
(1) Ameena
(12) Vestas
(3) She’s Bulletproof
(8) Extratwo

Suggested bet: Provided they can make ground, backing Ameena