Summary of Best Bets:
Race 3 #1 Naval Seal – Won’t get a better chance to win again.
Race 4 #2 Ramp It Up – Few handy ones here but he was great fresh and is the class.
Race 5 #10 Enterprise Private – About the only one in form who still have upside.
Turf Talk:
- Rail 3m+
- Danger meeting this one.
- Typical Qld weather. Extremely hot each day after a heap of rain early in the week.
- Add to that a chance of thunderstorms and who knows what we are in for. UPDATE- Weather report was completely wrong, missed the 50mm. Storm still a chance though.
Stats that matter:
- Ben Thompson isn’t going great, his last 50 look like this (50:5:11:6). He does have a good book of rides here though and feel he turns some of those placings into winners.
- Angela Jones is in great form. Her last 50 rides have produced 12 winners and a ROI of +49%
Race by race overview
Race 1:
Amazing that one of these will be a ‘winner’ at day’s end.
(3) Parat Sibifortunam ran a career best last start out to 1800m. Came from the back in a slow run race and was more than a pass mark. Fitter for it, looks like this is the right trip and can improve again.
(4) Still Unwanted is a big one paced type but that might work OK against these. Last couple of runs have not been bad (not good) and looks to find a suitable race here. They should be positive and sit right on speed here.
(6) Proud Miss has shown very little but actually attacked the line last start. If she could reproduce that, she’d be a winning hope. Not sure she can though.
Selections:
(3) Parat Sibifortunam
(4) Still Unwanted
(6) Proud Miss
Suggested Bet: No bet at prices.
Race 2:
Plenty of trust issues with this lot.
(2) Forging Ahead for Lees has shown glimpses but does mix form. Last start was probably as good as he has gone and this race is no harder than it was there.
(6) Blightys Hope got way too far back last start after missing the kick. It was mission impossible but ran the best L200m of the race and out to this trip is ideal. Blinkers go on and if she handles the rain, she might be the winner.
Waller has (1) Banxi and up to the mile suits. Just a very one paced conveyance and won’t win many races, if any. Still a leading hope here against these and Maloney takes the ride.
(7) Frankely Sublime might be the next best for exotics.
Selections:
(6) Blightys Hope
(2) Forging Ahead
(1) Banxi
(7) Frankely Sublime
Suggested Bet: Small win bet anywhere near opening price of $26 (6) Blightys Hope
Race 3:
Pretty ordinary event this one.
The class is (1) Naval Seal. When he won fresh over 1300m this time in I thought he’d go on with the job. Hasn’t won in five runs since and been a little plain. This is a nice drop in grade, Waller/Thompson and very well placed.
(2) Brindavan joined Gollan from overseas and had a tough task fresh in The Gateway. Only beat one home but is fitter, this is easier and could be the improver. Surprised it has opened fave though.
I don’t trust (4) Noble Conqueror at all but his best would go close. Tough to make a case for a lot of these.
Selections:
(1) Naval Seal
(2) Brindavan
(4) Nobel Conqueror
(7) Vermilion Kirin
Suggested Bet: Win (1) Naval Seal
Race 4:
Well, I don’t think anyone missed the run of (2) Ramp It Up first-up. He was the flashing light there, he has won 2nd up and he is the class runner (placed in G3 Winx Guineas last prep). Wet track not an issue and clearly the one to beat if he brings his best.
(5) Barrelling is the big danger, I love what he’s done the last couple. Tactically versatile but not really seen a very wet track if it comes to that. A month between runs but has trialled in between to stay up to the mark. Dominant last start and the runner up has franked the form since.
(3) Enterprise Attack has been good and improved each run this prep off a 378 day break (came back from HK). But looked to be placed beautifully last time out and went horribly. Not sure what to make of him.
Munce has found form again and 5 of last 20 have won. When the stable is going like this (6) Carravilla has to be a chance. Nice winner fresh and might be a stronger horse this time in work.
Selections:
(2) Ramp It Up
(5) Barrelling
(6) Carravilla
Suggested Bet: Win (2) Ramp It Up $4 seems fair
Race 5:
Time for the ‘we take it turns’ staying race.
I thought (1) Tajawal had been in good form in Qld, he got his turn two runs ago and then got beaten by 6.6L next time out. Like most of them, you just don’t know what you are going to get.
(7) Farwest has built into the prep well and is rock hard fit now. Handles most going, just 54kg and Jones to ride. Easier to make a case for than most. The downside is 2 wins from 25 runs.
Might be the race for (10) Enterprise Private. Loved the win at Murwillumbah last start where he came from last and went straight past them all. Genuine stayer who won 1st up this prep over 2200m on heavy ground. About the only one that seems to be improving. Opened double figures, yes please.
Big fan of (5) Prince Levi but the wet is a genuine concern for me in this.
Selections:
(10) Enterprise Private
(7) Farwest
(1) Tajawal
Suggested Bet: Win (10) Enterprise Private good value
Race 6:
The obvious looks (8) Amuseantes. Beat an up-and-comer fresh and then 2nd to Hell in a good Saturday BM78. Has run well on soft ground and the recent form is good enough to take care of these.
The more rain that hits the more it might help (9) Cheval Chic. Had good wet form in Melbourne a while back. Lost form before the stable change but the fresh run up here was full of merit. Looks well placed in a race like this 2nd up.
I always felt (11) Estrondo had a big future but he has been a disappointment. If you look at his form though, you can make a case he is always better with the edge out of the track. Only won 2 of 19 and they have been on soft and heavy ground. He loomed fresh, fitter now and gets a track to suit. He might surprise a few here.
(5) Sultry Siren was good late fresh and could be the next best in what looks a handy and open race.
Selections:
(8) Amuseantes
(11) Estrondo
(9) Cheval Chic
(5) Sultry Siren
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 7:
I like the fact (7) Enforceable was 3rd up to the 1400m last start and drops back to the 1200m here. Was beaten by a decent one there and the wet track should only help this bloke. Will be on speed and hard to beat here.
(14) Ready For Aimee looks to map well from the gate. Has the Gollan/Thompson combo to help and this isn’t much different than last start (where it had no luck at all). Hasn’t seen a very wet track and that’s the little query.
(9) Hunter’s Mate and (10) Carbonara were both big maiden winners last start but this is a step up.
Selections:
(14) Ready For Aimee
(7) Enforceable
(10) Carbonara
(9) Hunter’s Mate
Suggested Bet: Small win bet (14) Ready For Aimee
Race 8:
Really liked some of the runs from (1) Chief In Charge last prep and can be strong late in races (has run in the top 3 last L200m splits in all eight starts). Has run well in the wet and the only knock might be the big weight.
(7) Dominant Darcy was exactly that last start. Went to the front here over 1200m and won a Maiden by nearly 3L. Will win plenty more races and she is a hard one to find a knock on. This is harder but she can improve off the run.
(2) Prominent Lad maps well, will look a live chance but more on the place line here, can be weak late.
Couple of key scratchings have weakened this race.
Selections:
(7) Dominant Darcy
(1) Chief In Charge
Suggested Bets: Quinella 1,7
