Turf Talk:
- Rail is out 5m in the straight and 7m the remainder.
- Keep an eye on how the track plays today, with high temperatures forecast it could dry right out and those on speed gain an edge.
- Done the form for a relatively fair deck as when the rail gets to these sorts of positions it generally plays OK. But, be nimble, adjust if needed.
Race 2 No.7 Serene Defense
Serene Defense maps for a lovely run on top of the speed. No luck two back at Mornington and then good at Pakenham last start when riding the speed. Gets a handy claim for Bailey Kinninmont who has had a sit on the horse. Think he’s a great EW bet.
Concede Always Yours is a super hope off her debut when flashing home in some of the best splits of the day to run fourth. But, she was just fair to begin there, and she wouldn’t want to be slow out here. Her jump-outs prior to that debut were just fair, too. In an astute stable, but couldn’t get her anywhere near the $1.80 on offer.
Suggested bet: 1×3 EW Serene Defense at $7.50.
Race 4
Rumble Town is a big “if they can make ground” bet. This gelding was terrific first up at Kyneton, badly held up before flashing late to run third in a strong Maiden. Think he has come back in terrific order this campaign and not surprised to see he was heavily backed here last week before the races were abandoned as he was behind the barriers! The knock is he will likely get back, but expect her to hammer the line provided they can make ground.
Suspect Col Clink is going to take some catching up on speed. Won a jump-out by a space down the back straight here at Geelong before running third to the talented It’s A Yes and speedy The Carillo, again in a back-straight jump-out. He’s drawn to lead them up on debut and suspect he will give a great sight. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him drift from the current $9 on offer.
Kandinsky has trialled up well enough for his debut. He looks to have a turn of foot, but expect they push forward today. Big winning hope but well enough found at close to even money.
Suggested bet: If they make ground the first couple then keen Rumble Town but also having something on Col Clink who will give a good sight on debut.
Race 8
Backing a couple of roughies here.
Diamond War was plain first up at Wycheproof but he had only had one trial and a big gap between that hit-out and resuming getting straight to 1400m. He has been given six weeks between runs into this but trialled well at Colac a month back, suggesting he had come on from the first up run. Look, he’d prefer the sting out of the track, but on his day he’s up to a race like this and at 60/1 he’s well over the odds.
Bellalique is going better than the 20/1 on offer. No luck last start at Ballarat. Home the best late splits of the day two back at Ararat. She’s drawn to get a nice run from gate four, loves firmer ground and goes well at Geelong.
Botanical Boy is the horse to beat off two high-rating runs but the market hasn’t missed.
Suggested bet: Small spec bets on Diamond War and Bellalique at big odds.
