Suggested Bets
Two-bet play: Race 3 backing No.6 Divine Dot and No.8 Ghana’s Akan
Two-bet play: Race 8 backing No.1 Holymanz and No.8 Reset The Jazz
Value bet: Race 9 No.9 Out Of Square
Two-bet play: Race 10 backing No.6 Supernima and No.14 Figlio D’Argento
Turf Talk:
- Rail True on a track that will likely be quite firm.
- Expecting horses on speed / nearer the rail to have an advantage. Although at this meeting last year the inside did chop out a bit despite it being a good deck.
- Southerly winds will help them down the back straight.
Race 1
Good meeting but a moderate start to the day!
Query here is speed: there doesn’t look much on paper.
(1) Darkbonee clearly brings the best form to the race and with a decent run in transit is the horse to beat. Craig Williams put him ‘into the race’ at Sandown last time out on a day you needed to be up on speed, which proved a winning move. Hopefully Thomas Stockdale is again positive on him getting up to 1700m in a race where there doesn’t look a lot of speed. If he does that and gets across from the barrier without doing much work, then it could be a case of ‘how far’.
(5) Samurai Star surprised punters running second at a big price at his first outing for Russell Cluning last time out. Maybe he was flattered a touch by cutting the corner, but if he can replicate that performance he can figure in the finish.
Selections:
(1) Darkbonee
(5) Samurai Star
(2) Vellasmachine
Suggested bet: Pass. Check how the track might play.
Race 2
Scratching of Karburan really helps (7) Calypso King, who looks the clear leader. He relished the step to 2000m with a dominant win at Moe last start, albeit in a much weaker race. Concede he’s a query at the end of 2400m, but he’s at peak fitness now and there was no sign of stopping at Moe. With a soft lead, think he’s got a great winning hope.
(9) Leonchroi drops in grade and he was in the inferior going at Pakenham last time out when belting third in a BM78. Concern with him is he will again settle off speed and need a bit of luck, which isn’t ideal when taking $3 in a big field.
(12) Navy Heart was heavily backed and won well last start. Won’t spend a penny in the run from a soft draw.
Selections:
(7) Calypso King
(9) Leonchroi
(12) Navy Heart
(1) Eagle Angel
Suggested bet: 1×3 EW Calypso King
Race 3
Good edition of the Geelong Diamond, which gives the winner a guaranteed start in the Blue Diamond.
Loved the trials of (8) Ghana’s Akan, who has shown versatility in her work. With Jamie Melham up from gate three, suspect she will settle right on speed and take a stack of beating on debut.
Was keen to ‘find’ (6) Divine Dot off a visually impressive debut win at Mornington, having trialled well prior, but the time there was very slow, which is of some concern. Drop back to 1100m no issue for her and she can control from the front, which may prove advantageous. Backing the eye over data here, think she’s over the odds.
No knock on (1) Torture, who won a handy race on debut and has trialled well.
Race doesn’t end there!
Selections:
(8) Ghana’s Akan
(6) Divine Dot
(1) Torture
(7) Fine Sierra
Suggested bet: Small bets Ghana’s Akan / Divine Dot.
Race 4
Cracking race. Should be good speed with Frostnip, Faraway Dream and Hey Kleine Maus the most likely leaders.
Tipping (4) Faraway Dream here. She was awesome on debut, breaking the clock and doing it all under her own steam at Ballarat. Visually not as impressive second-up at Cranbourne, but she didn’t handle the sharp home bend well, was still soft the last 50m and that was a handy field she beat (second won on Thursday). Draws to camp on the back of the likely speed here and should have a tactical advantage on key rivals.
(1) Job Done is a ripper. He has the turn of foot to be able to get himself out of trouble, which he may well need from a sticky gate out in ten. Good win when sitting deep around the home bend on the Heath track first up. This is tougher, but he hasn’t reached his ceiling.
(9) Royal Rendezvous showed a ripper turn of foot to beat subsequent impressive winner Set Me Loose on debut at Werribee. Looks a talent.
(2) Miss Ole has been scratched a few times leading into her return to the track. I thought she had jumped out like a horse that would definitely benefit from her first-up outing, but the extra week or so of work should have her closer to the mark. Talented filly.
Selections:
(4) Faraway Dream
(1) Job Done
(9) Royal Rendezvous
(2) Miss Ole
Suggested bet: Good race. Happy to watch.
Race 5
Any potential pattern is vital here.
Davida probably leads but expect Betwitchery to be more forward up to 1400m, with Fiasco Tess next.
(4) Illyivy’s first-up run was better than it looked at Caulfield Heath. She only had one jump-out leading into that, so should derive plenty of benefit. She has previously settled reasonably handy when drawn low, so hopefully Logan Bates can have her in the first few in running. Looks over the odds at $12.
(5) Ahha Ahha is going to need some luck off gate one, but she was super against the pattern last week. If she can drive up and settle leader’s back, then that will see her hard to hold out.
(1) Merrigold maps for a super run and she’s going better than her form suggests. She’s well down in grade after running well back to the inside at Pakenham last start. Apprentice Hannah Edgley knows her well.
(11) Davida had a massive pattern in her favour when winning over 1400m at Cranbourne last time out but she could get similar here. Gets in very well after Jackson Radley’s claim, and he is riding beautifully.
Selections:
(4) Illyivy
(1) Merrigold
(5) Ahha Ahha
(11) Davida
Suggested bet: Want to see pattern. If ‘mad’ on speed then Davida will be awfully hard to run down. On an even deck, could have a few bucks on Illyivy and Merrigold.
Race 6
No speed here. Morryl Moral may lead, even though he’s better known over further.
Can’t see Jamie Melham being anything other than positive on (5) Harry’s Yacht. He’s on the seven-day back-up after running well at Cranbourne last week. Seems to be wanting 1400m again now and gets there at peak fitness. The concern is he has had a habit of getting quite keen in his races, which could hurt him at 1400m. Great hope who has been very well found in early betting.
(9) Codigo is an interesting runner getting out to 1400m for the first time since striking a heavy track back home in NZ. Was big late at Caulfield Heath last start, ripping home the best last 600/400/200m splits of the meeting. On trial at the trip, but with a positive ride early could figure in the finish.
(8) Stylish is probably better on rain-affected going but maps for a soft run here and she was excellent fresh on a firm deck.
(10) Morryl Moral might give some cheek on speed, especially if it’s a leaders’ deck.
Selections:
(9) Codigo
(8) Stylish
(5) Harry’s Yacht
(10) Morryl Moral
Suggested bet: Tricky race.
Race 7
Not a lot of speed. Naval Academy leads from potentially Port Albert, who looked really sharp in a recent jump-out. Red Galaxy may pull his way up on speed fresh.
Like the claim on (1) Big Swinger, who ran well with a decent impost at Pakenham last time out. Query is the drop back to 1100m after being tried over 1400m two back, with last start being 1200m. He has a good turn of foot and draws well.
(10) Sweethearted won on this day last year over the same 1100m trip against the three-year-olds. Strong late over 1000m at Pakenham and far better suited with the extra 100m. Will need some luck off gate one, as she isn’t the best barrier horse, but with a clear passage will charge late.
(5) Red Galaxy has trucked up strongly in his two trial wins. Was able to lead all the way first-up at Sale last campaign. This is tougher, but very good horse fresh.
(4) Naval Academy maps perfectly and will take catching, especially if on speed is advantaged.
Selections:
(1) Big Swinger
(10) Sweethearted
(5) Red Galaxy
(4) Naval Academy
Suggested bet: No thanks.
Race 8
Another race devoid of much tempo.
Leader either Reset The Jazz or Opening Address from Precious Charm.
(1) Holymanz is shooting for three straight wins in the race. Was held up around the home bend before dead-heating with Precious Charm at Werribee. Ran very well in the Cranbourne Cup the start prior. Thought he might have put them away a touch easier once clear last time out, but going well again and this isn’t stronger than previous editions.
Four of (8) Reset The Jazz’s last five wins have come when he’s controlled the speed, which he has some chance to do here. Was disappointing in the Wodonga Cup but has been given a solid jump-out between runs and I suspect they will now push the button and lead third-up getting to 1700m. No claim for Jackson Radley here (non-claiming race), but he’s riding well enough not to need it.
(3) Precious Charm has been to the Lord Stakes since that Werribee Cup, where she was forced to cover a bit of ground before being plain late. Harry Coffey jumps back in the saddle having won the Werribee Cup on her.
Selections:
(1) Holymanz
(8) Reset The Jazz
(3) Precious Charm
(7) Opening Address
Suggested bet: Getting $3 Holymanz and $7 Reset The Jazz. Can back them both, think one of the two wins. If spending $50, have $35 on Holymanz and $15 on Reset The Jazz.
Race 9
Good speed with Regal Tycoon, Gracie’s Rain and Tango Jewel pushing forward.
(9) Out Of Square is going to need the pattern on side and a bit of luck from a low draw, but she looks to have come back in outstanding order. Granted it was against weaker opposition, but loved how quickly she put her rivals to the sword fresh at 1000m. Potentially better suited at 1200m here and loves dry ground. If they can make ground by this stage of the day, then her double-figure price appeals.
(15) Biancelli is on trial at 1200m but this is the time to try it with a bit of fitness under her belt. She has been strong through the line in both 1000m runs, so there’s indication she’s looking for the trip.
(5) Gracie’s Rain can absolutely win again, but she will get more pressure early here than she did on the Heath track last start.
(16) Naifah maps for a soft run just behind the speed.
Selections:
(9) Out Of Square
(15) Biancelli
(16) Naifah
(5) Gracie’s Rain
Suggested bet: Provided horses can make ground, can have something each-way Out Of Square.
Race 10
A bit of the key form ties in here.
(6) Supernima covered ground around the Heath last time out. Better drawn today, should settle right on speed without doing much work. Like the 3kg claim for Emily Pozman, bringing him down to 58.5kg.
(14) Figlio D’Argento beat Supernima when they last clashed at Sandown over this trip. Similar weight setup today and thought he was good at Cranbourne last time out. Brad Rawiller rides 0.5kg over, but maps for a good run on speed and should be in this a long way.
(12) Botanical Boy is totally airborne, having trialled well leading into the campaign. Will be in the finish again.
(11) Freak Of Nature was okay in an on-speed race at the Heath last time out. If they ride him aggressively, he might have some hope.
Selections:
(6) Supernima
(14) Figlio D’Argento
(12) Botanical Boy
(11) Freak Of Nature
Suggested bet: Keen on the two-bet play of Supernima and Figlio D’Argento. Like Race 8, if spending $50, have $35 on Supernima and $15 on Figlio D’Argento.
