Summary of Best Bets:
Best Bet: Race 2 No.8 Somethingsostrong
Race 1
(8) Bourdeto has trialled promisingly. Without strong conviction, there’s evidence she may be a touch better than Maiden grade and capable of breaking through sooner rather than later. She’s well bred, with her dam a half-sister to 2010 Railway Stakes winner Gathering.
(1) Turquoise Parrot has had two quiet trials leading into his debut and has looked as though there’s plenty under the bonnet. He’s attracted market support since opening and profiles as a horse ready to make a strong first-up showing. He’s related to the grand old gelding Sessions Road.
(6) Sussex Duchess is the best of the raced runners, though that’s not saying a great deal. She has trialled as if she’s improved since her last preparation and is a half-sister to the talented Foxy Frida.
(4) Inspiring was well regarded ahead of her debut but failed to live up to expectations, finishing fourth in a moderate Maiden. Given the strength of her starting price, improvement isn’t out of the question.
Selections:
(8) Bourdeto
(1) Turquoise Parrot
(6) Sussex Duchess
(4) Inspiring
Suggested bet: No Bet
Race 2
(8) Somethingsostrong returned with a solid rating first-up at Seymour, charging home late over 1300 metres. Natural improvement is expected and, with that, she’s clearly deserving of favouritism.
(9) Fashionable Lady took a step forward with more ground last start at Seymour. The pace was genuinely strong and she tired late, but this is a weaker Maiden and another small improvement would put her right in the finish.
(3) Titan’s Spirit has been well supported since markets opened and that support is understandable, as double-figure odds underestimated his chances. He finished off strongly first-up and, while beaten clearly by Somethingsostrong, he could turn the tables if he settles closer from barrier six.
(4) Doubta missed the start on debut but made pleasing late ground and can take significant improvement from that run.
Selections:
(8) Somethingsostrong
(9) Fashionable Lady
(3) Titan’s Spirit
(4) Doubta
Suggested bet: (8) Somethingsostrong (Best Bet)
Race 3
(8) Celestial Zara made a promising debut, running good time, and should improve second-up with the extra half-furlong.
(4) Wonderdownunder has attracted strong market support on the back of multiple trials and appears primed to run well first-up.
(2) Don’t Say No Mikki has been inconsistent through four starts, but the rating produced last time suggests he must be respected.
(3) Druthers has trialled well for Lindsay Park and has upside.
Selections:
(8) Celestial Zara
(4) Wonderdownunder
(2) Don’t Say No Mikki
(3) Druthers
Suggested bet: No Bet
Race 4
(1) Cashout made a strong impression on debut in a decent Maiden, working across from a wide draw and finishing off well without breaking the clock. He won’t remain a maiden for long and is a deserving favourite.
(3) Flying Gentry was ridden conservatively on debut at Mornington before producing strong late sectionals and has improvement in him.
(4) Kingtondo was outclassed on debut in a strong Maiden and can take the necessary step forward to be competitive here.
Selections:
(1) Cashout
(3) Flying Gentry
(4) Kingtondo
Suggested bet: No Bet
Race 5
(4) Amizetta was disappointing last start in a slowly run race, unable to sprint when the race went on. Prior to that she was excellent over 1700 metres, charging from last to finish within a length of the winner. She may have needed that run and can rebound quickly.
(7) Highland Glory is ultra-consistent, repeatedly producing a similar rating, and that level is good enough to win provided Amizetta doesn’t return to her best.
(2) Hollandia should control the tempo, which can be advantageous at Geelong, and his peak run last preparation came fourth-up, which is where he sits now.
(3) Motiver raced wide throughout last start and weakened late when only second-up, but can improve sharply with that run under his belt and has previously shown the form to win a race of this quality.
Selections:
(4) Amizetta
(7) Highland Glory
(2) Hollandia
(3) Motiver
Suggested bet: No Bet
Race 6
(2) Mr Assertive went a touch too hard at Flemington last start and paid for it late. His prior rating stacks up well and makes him a deserved favourite.
(1) Commands Success was disadvantaged by racing on the wrong side of the straight at Flemington but finished alongside two talented horses and has previously run to a level that would win this.
(3) Miss Swift was unsuited on a rain-affected track last start and can improve significantly.
Selections:
(2) Mr Assertive
(1) Commands Success
(3) Miss Swift
Suggested bet: No Bet
Race 7
The booking of Mark Zahra on (4) Attain is a clear positive. He has the ability to settle prominently, which is crucial in a race devoid of pace on paper, and third-up he’s ready to peak.
(8) Godtfred Kirk showed promise in his first campaign and has trialled as if he’s returned in excellent order.
(7) Tarzing overcame a significant betting drift to win impressively on debut, though the query is whether he’s looking for further.
(3) Winsome Star continues to be outpaced early, which won’t help him here, but he was excellent last start.
Selections:
(4) Attain
(8) Godtfred Kirk
(7) Tarzing
(3) Winsome Star
Suggested bet: No Bet
Race 8
(7) Aka Daka is in strong form and finds another suitable setup, likely to roll forward again and give a bold sight.
(4) Lario was only fair first-up, finishing third, and while his best would clearly win a race of this quality, improvement is required.
(8) Colour Our World won well first-up before racing below her best at Sandown and is entitled to her place in the market.
(6) Houdini may have taken improvement from a full preparation under Gavin Bedggood.
Selections:
(7) Aka Daka
(4) Lario
(8) Colour Our World
(6) Houdini
Suggested bet: No Bet
