Summary of Best Bets:
Race 6 No.2 The Instructor – Seems to be timed to the minute and maps well.
Race 8 No.1 Ninja – Only has to run up to the last effort to win.
Turf Talk:
- Rail 2m
- All the sprint starting points with big fields are short runs to the first corner and gates are very important. 1000m-1100m-1200m.
Stats that matter:
- Chris Munce stable have had 262 starters this season and striking at an incredible 21.4% with a positive ROI.
- Tommy Berry is in great form, has ridden 11 winners from his last 42 rides and has a good book on Saturday.
Race by race overview
Race 1:
Always a tricky affair the Maidens. Who has been set for it and who is here cause they just aren’t winners?
Perfect race for (2) Buckeye. Well bred and has placed in 3 of 5. Just the one run last prep and he was beaten a lip at Canterbury. Has had two trials for this and they have been good. Asked for the effort the latest and won that in good style. Gets the box seat and every chance here.
Could it be a B. Baker sting? (5) Zoufame was 2nd in the bush at only start. It was a pass mark but not great. Couple of trials this time in, the latest was outstanding. Led there and put a few lengths on them with a turn of foot. Looks handy and the gelding operation seems to have done the trick.
(6) Melanite wasn’t far off Ninja last time he ran. Comes here fresh but both trials have been very good leading into this. Looks a nice horse who will win multiple races.
(9) Misty Veil bumped into a handy one in Ice Kool last start. Was well beaten but a big gap back to the 3rd horse there. Good form and looks yet another live hope.
(10) Scrumptious has had a long time off but pushed out in trials and fair efforts there. Clark rides for Waterhouse/Bott so watch the market.
(13) Bottles Of Shells is a blue blood and comes here 3rd career run, set to peak. Back from 1200m to 1100m suits, has upside and will look the winner at some stage.
Selections:
(5) Zoufame
(2) Buckeye
(6) Melanite
(13) Bottles Of Shells
(10) Scrumptious
Suggested Bet: Small win bet (5) Zoufame
Race 2:
Country horses from all over the joint. Nearly impossible to line these up.
(10) Oberoi Princess has a horrible gate but Munce has them running through brick walls at the moment. She has been highly competitive every run this prep except two back when just outclassed in a good Saturday race. Not sure where she gets to, but look for her late.
(9) Party Spirit is no star but we know her well as she is a city/midweek type horse up here for Heathcote. Strung a couple of good runs together including a win two back. Plain last start but just have to be forgiving.
(1) King Gutho has been freshened and his best would be good enough. Berry a positive but has to be good from the gate.
(12) Arctic Legend has good form with the old stable. Was a drifter fresh after being off the scene for a long time. Looked like a barrier trial first up. Draws inside, Mallyon climbs on and can improve here. Very surprised the head gear didn’t go back on but looks over the odds.
Selections:
(12) Arctic Legend
(10) Oberoi Princess
(9) Party Spirit
(1) King Gutho
Suggested Bet: Split win bets for an interest (12) Arctic Legend and (10) Oberoi Princess
Race 3:
Well it doesn’t get any easier here in the Debut.
Loved the trial win of (7) Toorak Jewel on this track. Led them up, showed a brilliant turn of foot to put about 5L on them and throttled down to win by 10L. Inside draw and McDonald to ride.
(6) Lady Moscato has breeding on her side and she looks like mum too (Champagne Cuddles). She is only a small, little thing but has good speed and 1000m suits. In the right stable and watch the market.
(4) Wendell was given a sound out in his trial and looked good. Sat outside leader and found when asked for an effort. Should be highly competitive.
(5) Dolly Boom is going to be a nice horse and she learned a lot from trial 1 to trial 2. Might all come a bit soon but if she runs well, it wont surprise.
(9) Cherry Bombshell might be value in trifectas.
Selections:
(7) Toorak Jewel
(5) Dolly Boom
(6) Lady Moscato
(9) Cherry Bombshell
(4) Wendell
Suggested Bet: Watching on
Race 4:
Well (1) Miss Joelene is going as well as any horse in Qld at the moment. She was placed beautifully last week in The Wave 1800m race. Came from near last and made them look second rate. Weight is a great leveller and carrying 60kg while spotting the boys weight is a hard task. Meets the runner up (3) Encoder 5.5kg worse at the weights here. Encoder was brave last start and won this race last year. Right in it again here.
(2) Major Beel is a classy animal but he is impossible to trust. He could win or be beaten 5L and wouldn’t surprise. Dominant winner two back at $21 and hopeless last start at $6.
(5) You Wahng has been ordinary all prep but the tactics last week were horrible. Rode her way too close and couldn’t finish off. It was a good fitness run though and out to this trip suits.
(6) Snitzanova was a query at the trip last week and ended up running the best L200m of the race. Now to 2200m is a big query. Has always had class but mixed form horribly lately.
Selections:
(1) Miss Joelene
(5) You Wahng
(3) Encoder
(6) Snitzanova
Suggested Bet: No bet.
Race 5:
Luck might play a big part in this.
(3) Lonhro’s Queen won the lead up to this in good style. She has been very good since joining Munce (but so has every other horse in the stable). She has a nice turn of foot and more than up to these. From the gate she might be three wide with cover at best. Double figures seems value off that last win.
In the same race (1) Dance To The Boom was a bit plain for her standard. She had been given a let up after the spring so she may have needed the run. Is it that or did she need a proper spell? We find out here as she draws to get a great run in transit and in a stable that thrives at this carnival.
(4) Jenni The Fox will be buried back on the fence midrace but if she gets the breaks when they fan for home she has the strength to beat these. I don’t think there is great tempo but if they go harder than expected it will play into her hands.
I have been with (2) Zaszou all the way through and haven’t collected yet. Looked flat last start but that was a good race against the boys and back to her own sex in a restricted race is what she is after.
(7) Sunset Dreaming is going particularly well but gate 20 will put people off. A couple of runs ago they were positive on her and she ran well. Gollan gets the tactics right every time and don’t be surprised to see her push forward. She has run some of the best splits each start this prep and she might shock a few here.
Selections:
(7) Sunset Dreaming
(4) Jenni The Fox
(3) Lonhro’s Queen
(2) Zaszou
(1) Dance To The Boom
Suggested Bet: Split bets (4) Jenni The Fox and (7) Sunset Dreaming
Race 6:
Looks to be good speed with Steady Ready who may have to go handle bars down to cross. Zealously, Gin A Tonic and Hidden Wealth all drawn out and want to be forward too.
(2) The Instructor has been timed to the minute for this by Waterhouse/Bott. Brave fresh run when just run down by a smart one. Has won 3 of 4 second-up and he will be jammed on speed from the good gate. This distance suits and looks to get every chance.
(1) Hidden Wealth is a gem. Won 2 of 3 this prep and Berry takes the ride here. Drops 2kg on the latest win and has won at the track. The little query is the fact there is good speed underneath and maps just a little tricky for him.
I would not have thought (8) Gin A Tonic had the class of these but has won three on the bounce and last start was very impressive. Gate is sticky enough and they are going to go harder here than last start.
Whenever I am against (6) Spywire is when he wins and I’m not on again here so could be a pointer!
(4) Payline can win on best form but after the prep he’s had and not getting it done the last two with every chance, it’s a Munce miracle if he gets it home.
Selections:
(2) The Instructor
(1) Hidden Wealth
(6) Spywire
(8) Gin A Tonic
(4) Payline
Suggested Bet: Win bet (2) The Instructor
Race 7:
The big winners from the barrier draw were the faves.
(4) Warwoven is just a ready made 2 year old and just happens to be in the stable that seems to thrive up here each year. From the good gate he will park himself in the first six settling, will have cover and he will take some beating. Deserved fave but $2 is bloody skinny.
The toppy (1) Zip Lock has a beautiful action and will be good over 1400m+ next prep. Think he can nearly grab the box seat here and just stalk them for as long as they like. Impressive last start and from all reports worked very well through the week. Munce yard had an unbelievable start to this season, dropped off for a couple of weeks and come back with a bang at the feature night last week.
Now to the Maher pair. (2) Tornado Valley won the Maribyrnong G3 early November and given a break after that. Returned Dec 27 and was wide, but I thought brave behind Zip Lock. There is no doubt they would have left improvement in him for this. If he jumps with them and settles with the favourites, he might sprint better than them if he brings his best. Blinkers go on first time.
The stable also have (5) Unit Five who is over the odds. Won the 2 year old classic at Caulfield and then the recent trial at this track was excellent. Could improve out of sight at 2nd career run for one of the best ‘grand final’ trainers in the game.
I was taken with the win of (7) Shiki last week. She showed one of the best turns of foot I’ve seen out of any of these. If she drew low I would nearly have her on top. She is right in this but needs a good ride early.
(6) Knightsbridge can land in the right spot and has McDonald on top. Hard to knock and around $20, he’s in my exotics.
Selections:
(2) Tornado Valley
(4) Warwoven
(1) Zip Lock
(7) Shiki
(5) Unit Five
Suggested Bet: Just small e/w (2) Tornado Valley
Race 8:
Words can’t describe how good (1) Ninja was last start. Got way back and looked to have a huge task ahead. Berry got him to the outside and he reeled them in just after the corner and won by 4.8L with his head on his chest. He can be lengths worse here and still win. Three wide with cover would be fine.
Away from him it’s a lottery.
(11) Icarian Dream has form lately around Sheza Alibi and Grafterburners. Has been around the money in group races many times and does like it in Qld. Nice gate helps and she might be next best.
(15) Adorable Thought is in a stable that is airborne and still lightly raced. Made good ground late in the Ninja race last time out.
(4) Torque To Be Sure is a maiden but has run 2nd in 5 of 10 starts. Very good last week and a bit of speed on suits.
(6) Spanish Treasure was a maiden until last week but like the fact he is in form, tactically versatile and has good upside.
Can make cases for plenty of others like (10) Memo who would be in the money if she brought her best and (5) Saxobushi who has won two on the trot.
Selections:
(1) Ninja
(11) Icarian Dream
(6) Spanish Treasure
(4) Torque To Be Sure
Suggested Bets: Win (1) Ninja if $2+
Race 9:
One of the better races on the card and a stack of chances.
No better place to start than with the toppy. (1) Yellow Brick has been one of the most promising horses in Qld for a couple of years but just hadn’t got to the level I expected. This time in he looks as good as he’s ever been. Trials were great and the win last week was excellent with the big weight. Possibly just fitter from that run and this was the target all along.
(2) Bosustow is class, but the gate is a big concern. First up last prep he was 2nd in the G3 Bill Ritchie, great form for this. The recent trial was very good and he can still win from the gate with some luck. Any rain or a storm and he’d be a bet for sure.
I have always liked (4) Need Some Luck and he got the job done as a best bet last start for us. Should land around midfield and hope they go hard up front. Still a horse I feel can improve and in a great ‘grand final’ stable.
I’m not a (7) West Of Africa man but the win in this race last year was about a career best and hard to get that out of my head.
(8) King Of Roseau has class and another Group winner. Has been better than it reads this prep and the tempo was against him last start. 2nd best L400m and 200m of the race there.
Selections:
(1) Yellow Brick
(4) Need Some Luck
(8) King Of Roseau
(2) Bosustow
Suggested Bets: Nothing at this stage
Race 10:
What an even race to finish the day and anything could win here. (2) Pre Eminence is scratched for the earlier race and can’t help but think they pulled the wrong rein.
The market always loves (5) John Rambo. He has talent, with Gollan but, gee, he has some tricks and excuses. Needs absolutely everything to go right. If it does, he can outsprint them. Up 6.5kg on last week’s good effort. Goes in everything but I’ve lost faith to put the hard earned on him.
(7) Silentsar was a good run fresh. Every run last prep was on wet ground. Has a good 2nd up record, maps perfect and looks to get every chance here. Might be one that has been aimed specifically at this.
(12) Hawker Hall is a good horse with great form. Just the wide gate and 1200m a little concern. Might need luck to run this right out.
(14) Roselyn’s Star is a similar story. All the good form is 1100m but does have some class. Has the ability to win this if she gets the 1200m strong, but it is a query.
Can make a case for (6) Ser Joh to run into this late. Most are 1100m horses and he comes off a 1400m run and rock hard fit.
Selections:
(5) John Rambo
(7) Silentsar
(14) Roselyn’s Star
(12) Hawker Hall
Suggested Bets: No bet after the on top selection was scratched.
