Summary of Best Bets:
Race 2 #7 Stabilizer – Still green but strong senior goes on today.
Race 6 #2 Cutepi – She has been good all prep and feel she can sit behind a good tempo and go past them.
Value: Race 3 #9 Meet George- Just feel it comes out of better races and gets a chance to be on speed and win here.
Turf Talk:
- Rail is in the True position
- 30+ degrees each day leading into this raceday at Ipswich. I’m sure they will keep the water up to it but it simply has to dry out as the day goes on.
- Might be a bit to the front late in the day.
Stats that matter:
- Ryan Maloney this season has ridden 51 of 205 rides at 24.9%. Most impressively he has ridden 7 of his last 9 rides to victory. He’s airborne.
- Matt Dunn is a trainer in form. From his last 50 runners he is striking 26% win and 68% place. Not the strongest team engaged today but a couple of chances to keep the run going.
Race by race overview
Race 1:
One of the hardest races of the day and we kick off with it.
(3) Herald Angel is no star but was a pass mark in the first prep and expect it to improve this time in. Recent trial at Grafton was strong through the line. Stable in form and keen to see what the market does with her.
(5) Heart ‘N’ Power was good first run of second prep. Bit of traffic on the corner but was best L200m of the race and draws inside gate here too.
I feel (7) Lebanese might need another run to work it out but she was sneaky good late on debut running 2nd best L200m there.
Hard to win anywhere on debut and this is a tough enough race. (6) Icymiss has trialled particularly well and is in the right stable. Should push forward from the gate and be in this for a long way. Nice looking grey who will be easy to pick up in the run.
Selections:
(6) Icymiss
(5) Heart ‘N’ Power
(3) Herald Angel
(7) Lebanese
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 2:
I have some serious trust issues with a lot of these.
(7) Stabilizer settled last two runs back and savaged the line. Pushed up to lead last start and was as green as grass. Good when balanced up again and maybe just splits that here, settles midfield and can win with KWT jumping on. $12 into $7 adds to the confidence.
(8) Astern Effort has shown ability but does mix it up. Most recent trial was an easy win at Toowoomba and respect any market moves.
(1) Cantankerous has ability but I have had zero luck with that horse.
Of the horses on debut, (2) Dawson Director has a nice action, is Gollan and should map well from the middle gate. (6) Rochedale Hero trialled very well but $2.90 looks unders.
Selections:
(7) Stabilizer
(8) Astern Effort
(2) Dawson Director
(1) Cantankerous
Suggested Bet: Win bet (7) Stabilizer
Race 3:
(9) Meet George has not got a great strike rate but I like the form around him this prep. Little Fella, Royal Mover and Brave Monarch are good form lines for this. Has the ability to roll forward and will find this easier.
(4) Abender is a nice horse on the way up for Gollan. Likes to find his feet so the inside draw at this track means he will need luck with splits at the right time.
(1) Ten Good Reasons is better than average but another who might get back and have to circle them. Won or placed in 7 of 9 so you have to respect.
(2) Impendor was good in a Highway handicap resuming, draws well for good stable.
Forgiving (3) Bundella last time out. Comes here to peak 4th up, can sit on speed from good gate and drier track will help.
Selections:
(9) Meet George
(3) Blundella
(2) Impendor
(4) Abender
Suggested Bet: Small win bet (9) Meet George
Race 4:
Looks to be good speed from 2, 5, 6 & 9 and should be a fair run race. Not a lot of class engaged and have landed on (7) Carpaccio who looks to be the one with upside. Only won 1 of 14, that’s the query. Bumped into some handy ones last prep and most of the efforts were good. Both trials have been great but had some type of head gear on (might have been pacifiers but hard to tell). They aren’t on race day? Strange.
(6) Aunty Rene and (2) Smart Recognition are from the same stable and I’d expect both to roll forward and be in this for a long way. Can be a little soft late if they go hard.
(10) Blue Allure can win off the last start effort but she can mix her form and be hard to trust. Might need luck from the inside gate as she settles back, but always respect Gollan.
Selections:
(7) Carpaccio
(10) Blue Allure
(6) Aunty Rene
(2) Smart Recognition
Suggested Bet: Win bet (7) Carpaccio
Race 5:
Swag looked well placed but has scratched and thrown this wide open. Another in the numbers has come out as well and this has really weakened the race.
(8) Uniquely Famous for Waller was beaten fair and square on debut but the run was full of merit. Got to the outside and hit the lead before just getting run over late. Better for the day out and strips fitter. KWT rides from the good gate and should map to be the winner.
(14) Tassorati was just a run on debut but can improve sharply off that effort. Jones rides for Gollan, jumps from 9 now that so many have come out and expecting a very competitive run here 2nd day at the track.
(10) Carbonara mixes form but has ability and might be the next best here in a plain race.
Selections:
(8) Uniquely Famous
(14) Tassorati
(10) Carbonara
Suggested Bet: Win (8) Uniqely Famous
Race 6:
Good speed engaged but they are drawn wide and might really make them go hard and set it up for one just off the speed.
(2) Cutepi has been great this prep and from the good draw I see her tracking the leaders and being able to get first/last crack at them. 3kg claim helps and can win.
(4) Wild Gypsy joins Gollan, trials have been OK so watch the market.
(1) Southern Charm is fitter 3rd up for Munce/Harley combo and (3) Dream Lantern has shown great ability, just hasn’t continued to improve though.
Selections:
(2) Cutepi
(1) Southern Charm
(3) Dream Lantern
(4) Wild Gypsy
Suggested Bet: Win bet (2) Cutepi
Race 7:
You can keep the BM58s out of the quaddie, please. Horrible animals with no upside.
I actually can’t find a positive here.
(7) Darling Take Care is a weak type but the last couple at Ballina have been solid. Broke maiden status there last time out and comes here 4th up with a good gate and good jock.
(8) Sky Blue has a horrible gate but the Toowoomba runs this prep have been good and trialled well with blinkers on recently. They stay on here and looks hard to beat if Maloney finds cover.
(10) Mr Evans might be next best in a plain race.
Selections:
(8) Sky Blue
(7) Darling Take Care
(10) Mr Evans
Suggested Bet: Win (8) Sky Blue if $6+
Race 8:
Another BM58. They have had a combined 334 starts for 27 wins between them.
(2) Obstructionist is consistent although he’s only won 1 from 22 and it was last start in a two horse race. 72 days off but genuine winning hope against these.
(3) Forty Times is suited at this grade. Was a winner two back at Toowoomba over this trip and then solid at the GC over 1800. Been up a long time but recent form is some of his best.
(5) Perri Lass has improved each run this prep and comes here 4th up ready to show best. Solid run over this track/trip last start and gets a 3kg claim to help out.
(8) Savvy Bee is a non winner but can go in exotics for those having a play.
Selections:
(5) Perri Lass
(3) Forty Times
(2) Obstructionist
(8) Savvy Bee
Suggested Bets: Small win (5) Perri Lass
Race 9:
(8) Sanctuary Storm got a lovely run and was a nice winner last start. Just peeled off their backs and too good. Maps well again and gets the in form Maloney to ride.
The form (5) Evelyn May was in before the freshen up would be good enough to win here. Just a pass mark last start but probably in a slightly better race than this. Can improve off that and be in the finish.
The toppy (1) Roller Coaster has a bit of class and could run into it late here and (12) Wily Jack comes out of a decent Saturday race.
Selections:
(8) Sanctuary Storm
(5) Evelyn May
(1) Roller Coaster
(12) Wily Jack
Suggested Bets: No bet
Race 10:
It’s now or never for (10) Port River Billie. Has shown better ability than this grade but just finds reasons to not win. Got a good ride and every chance last start. Still a good effort and maps midfield again here.
(5) Bee Exact can be weak late but will be on speed for a long way. Ran very well over this track/trip two runs back.
Hard to find many positives with others. (2) Toba up to this grade but just a bit of a non winner. Scratching’s have helped and can be around the money.
Selections:
(10) Port River Billie
(5) Bee Exact
(2) Toba
Suggested Bets: Last ever chance (10) Port River Billie
