Summary of Best Bets:
Race 6 No.13 The Stars – Trials have been good and placed well in Qld.
Race 5 No.8 San Jose Boy- Finds a winnable race but confidence not through the roof.
Turf Talk:
- Rail 7m
- Rail out that far you would expect it to play a bit to the front.
- Hot weather may even dry it out faster and make it even more biased to the front.
Stats that matter:
- Dunn stable don’t have the strongest team here but have been striking at 26% from their last 50 runners.
- B.Larena has surprising stats this season. 49 winners from 325 rides and a ROI of +15%.
Race by race overview
Race 1:
(3) Spot The Aussie is just a plain type but gets Thompson riding. Fitter for the fresh run and straight to 1700m is a little query. Such a poor race means he can still win.
(4) Wanna Kiss only comes out of a Warwick Maiden but like the fact she has improved each time she has gone to the track and out to this trip may be another bonus. Would rather a senior on but 3kg claim not bad.
(5) Dashing Mars is going better than any of these, just the step to 1700m is the unknown. Got through the line well (best L200m of the race) and gut feel is he will run it out. Fitter 3rd up too.
Selections:
(5) Dashing Mars
(3) Spot The Aussie
(4) Wanna Kiss
(8) He Is The Kiss
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 2:
(3) Bokuden gets Jett Newman on and she is riding the biggest high of her career so far. Her 3kg is a steal at the moment. Can get out of his ground but usually strong late and looks a real chance on a track he likes.
(8) Key Component has a horrible strike rate but the last three have been her best three runs. Was strong over the 2150m on this track last start and feel this is easier than what she took on there.
Gee, it drops away quick and these are weak animals.
Selections:
(8) Key Component
(3) Bokuden
(9) Classique Gal
Suggested Bet: Just small win (8) Key Component
Race 3:
I’ve always liked (7) Lovey Dovey as a stayer but fair to say I probably overrated her. Had just been plain this prep until last start where she got the better of a few of these the last 50m to win. Good gate and Mallyon suits.
(6) Aboveforty was a winner two back and then nosed out by Lovey Dovey last start. This is the perfect trip for him and has a good record on the track. Will look the winner for sure at some stage.
(1) Lenape Vibe comes out of better races and is set to peak 4th up. Still has decent weight after claim but I like the apprentice on top.
Selections:
(7) Lovey Dovey
(1) Lenape Vibe
(6) Above Forty
Suggested Bet: Quinella 1,6,7
Race 4:
Liked each run of (1) Cambridge Bay in his initial prep. I think 1600m+ is probably what he will need but trial was good and 1350m fresh might be a good starting point.
(7) Cliodhna Maeve is just a non-winner. 14 runs without a win but has placed 6 times. Stable are guns but one for exotics as far as I’m concerned.
(13) Isla Delilah didn’t really know what it was all about on debut. When she got out late she was the best through the line. Could be a sharp improver here at second career start.
Selections:
(1) Cambridge Bay
(13) Isla Delilah
(7) Cliodhna Maeve
Suggested Bet: Quinella 1,7,13
Race 5:
Looks a lovely race for (8) San Jose Boy. Most of these are a bit washed up but he has more wins in store. Did mix form last prep but a couple of handy runs in 3 year old grade. Not bad 2nd up this time and rock hard fit now.
(9) Sacred Bull also 3rd up and ready to show best. Made ground from a long way back last start and out to 1700m is suitable. May even want this and further but can be more than competitive against this lot.
(13) My Charm coming out was a surprise and weakens this dramatically.
(3) Expectant would win this off the last start effort but mixes form and impossible to trust.
Selections:
(8) San Jose Boy
(9) Sacred Bull
(3) Expectant
Suggested Bet: Small win bet (8) San Jose Boy
Race 6:
Well I mentioned five horses in the initial preview and four are scratched!
(13) The Stars was OK in Sydney without being good. Comes here first-up and will be far better placed in Qld. Liked the recent trials and ready to win first-up, surely, off them.
Really liked the trial of (3) Believe In Angels for the new stable but he failed at the first run for them (didn’t handle going – Good 3) and that’s an issue for me on what might be a firm track again.
(8) Bluish Hue has got better each run and peaks 4th up. Does that Toowoomba form measure up?
(9) Bold Bidder is in a good yard, good jock and could be the improver.
Selections:
(13) The Stars
(3) Believe In Angels
(8) Bluish Hue
(9) Bold Bidder
Suggested Bet: Win (13) The Stars
Race 7:
(5) Jimmyinthejungle has a good record (5:2:2:0) but, more importantly draws, well here. Decent effort fresh at Toowoomba, won 2nd up last prep and you’d think this track/trip should suit.
(10) Whispering Rogue can be a bit soft late but going over his form, he has bumped into some handy horses and run well. Needs a good ride from a bad draw but can win here.
I can never catch (9) Joy A Plenty but she is good over this trip, won a recent trial and some hope. Betting moves are a great sign with this stable, so watch the market.
Selections:
(5) Jimmyinthejungle
(10) Whispering Rogue
(9) Joy A Plenty
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 8:
Tough way to finish.
(12) Davikar has been good for the new stable. Winner at first run for them and then midfield only beaten 1.5L last start. Good gate, good jock and has been strong late in races.
I’m ready to give up on (4) Nagamie who I have had a lot of time for. Just the 2 wins from 14 starts and apprentice needs to give him a great ride.
Everything went wrong for (16) Glass Of Rose fresh and then went to a Magic Millions race where completely outclassed. Blinkers go back on, Tilley rides and might sit closer from the inside gate. Poor strike rate but can be in the finish.
Don’t like the gate (1) Russian Sub with apprentice but has a bit more class than most of these.
Selections:
(12) Davikar
(16) Glass Of Rose
(4) Nagamie
(1) Russian Sub
Suggested Bets: No bet
