Best bets:
Best bet – Race 8 No.2 Off The Press
Next best: Race 2 No.1 Balmoral Castle
Value bet: Race 2 No.4 Movie Night
Turf Talk
- Rail True – Expecting a on speed advantage here with a firm track and the rail in the True.
Stats that matter:
- Over the past 90 days Tom Sherry is striking at a impressive 32.1% with a positive POT of +79.2%.
- The Gary Portelli stable has been one to follow over the past 90 days up to $10SP, the team is striking at 25% with a impressive POT of +44.7%. They are effective with runners first, second and third up.
Race 1 – 2:45PM PRECISE AIR HANDICAP (1300 METRES)
Solid 1300m maiden to kick off.
Purely off the map, (1) Ichiban Koji goes on top here off the back of a smart fresh effort in a strong rating race. I expect Nash to be aggressive early and land up on speed.
(5) Cellarmaster has returned in great order going off his trials, he does draw well in barrier 4 but I suspect Clipperton will snag him back to last and look to run on.
The big watch is on (3) Makhachev, two very quiet trials but he looked to have plenty to offer. Any late support must be respected.
(8) Viva Mauricio was enormous fresh from an impossible spot in transit. Improver.
Selections:
(1) Ichiban Koji
(5) Cellarmaster
(3) Makhachev
(8) Viva Mauricio
Suggested Bet – No Bet
Race 2 – 3:20PM RANDWICK MAYOR’S CUP (1300 METRES)
Another solid 1300m contest, this time for the girls.
(1) Balmoral Castle maps well from barrier 7 coming off back to back smart efforts, the latest behind the smart Plantiff and Jaegers, third up now and looks ready to tackle 1300m.
I’ve been eagerly awaiting the debut of the well bred (4) Movie Night, she’s shown immense talent at the trials and gets a lovely set up here on debut.
(11) Wootton Way comes through the same last start race as Balmoral Castle, up to 1300m is a big tick.
Selections:
(1) Balmoral Castle
(4) Movie Night
(11) Wootton Way
(8) Champere
Suggested Bet – Balmoral Castle WIN/ Movie Night EW
Race 3 – 4:00PM THE “CREWY” JOHN BRADY HANDICAP (1800 METRES)
Tricky race overall with some very even form lines leading in.
Happy to stick with the last start winner (1) Lennox, he got the better of (2) Contaldo at Gosford first-up and looks the better stayer moving forward. The 2kg claim is the cherry on top. The question mark with Contaldo is the rise to 1800m, the booking of Nash though is a strong positive.
(6) Winning Point didn’t have much luck last start at a crucial stage in the straight, gets in very light here and goes in the mix.
(5) Think We’re There rounds out the numbers needing to improve.
Selections:
(1) Lennox
(2) Contaldo
(6) Winning Point
(5) Think We’re There
Suggested Bet – No Bet
Race 4 – 4:40PM FIDELITY CAPITAL AUSTRALIA HANDICAP (1250 METRES)
Field of 10 assembled here. Wide open event.
I loved the first up win of (6) Calga Power, he ran time out in front with a dominant win. He does draw wide here but should come in a couple of spots; from there he’ll land on speed.
(3) Cross Tasman has mixed his form at the trials, he has been gelded into this prep and a win wouldn’t surprise first up over 1250m.
Both (2) Sociable and (7) Written Scandal both hit the line impressively. Both draw out and will look to run on.
Selections:
(6) Calga Power
(3) Cross Tasman
(2) Sociable
(7) Written Scandal
Suggested Bet – No Bet
Race 5 – 5:20PM VINNIE @ YARRAMAN PARK HANDICAP (1400 METRES)
Another massive field with plenty of chances overall.
(14) Virgil’s Gift goes on top for the Waterhouse & Bott camp. The lightly raced 3yo filly should land up on speed from gate 7 and is peaking now fitness-wise back to 1400m.
(8) Elivina was impressive first up and can only improve here second up, draw well in gate 1 and should get every chance.
Outside of that, (6) Mother Goose and (5) Emballee can figure in the placings.
Selections:
(14) Virgil’s Gift
(8) Elivina
(6) Mother Goose
(5) Emballee
Suggested Bet – No Bet
Race 6 – 6:00PM TOYOTA FORKLIFTS HANDICAP (1400 METRES)
It doesn’t get tougher than this, you couldn’t throw a blanket over these horses’ figures and form.
Good speed expected up front, (6) Dashing Rupert looks the horse at odds I could entertain, good two starts back before given a poor ride in wet conditions at Kembla. Back to a firmer deck from a lovely draw reads well.
(9) Frontex put in a plain one last start; back to easier grade helps here. 1400m is still a slight query.
(2) Rolling Magic and (5) Mirra Impact are next best.
Selections:
(6) Dashing Rupert
(9) Frontex
(2) Rolling Magic
(5) Mirra Impact
Suggested Bet – No Bet
Race 7 – 6:30PM TAB HANDICAP (1250 METRES)
(3) Heuristic was flushed out early last start and had to spend plenty of juice; that told late with a fading run. The map doesn’t get kinder here but with a more economical run he can bounce back.
The market and parade watch is on (4) Loose Love, smart barrier and has some very strong fresh figures.
(11) Scopics maps well from barrier 2 coming off a forgive run last start — go back two starts and that form would likely win this.
Both (6) Laurel Hill and (2) Hydrometer bring solid enough form to this event and go in the mix as winning chances.
Selections:
(3) Heuristic
(4) Loose Love
(6) Laurel Hill
(2) Hydrometer
Suggested Bet – No Bet
Race 8 – 7:00PM COGBURN WORLDS FASTEST HORSE @ WIDDEN (1250 METRES)
Very keen to round out the program with (2) Off The Press, Todd Smart has this gelding in career best form. He was gritty last time out and looks better suited again here with no real pressure up on speed.
(9) Me Me will look to hold leaders’ backs here third-up. Peaking fitness-wise, talented mare who deserves her crack at metro grade now.
(3) Starboard has been given back-to-back strong hit outs at the trials, key booking of Tim Clark and shouldn’t have fitness issues over 1250m.
The well-backed (4) Kyeema is next best.
Selections:
(2) Off The Press
(9) Me Me
(3) Starboard
(4) Kyeema
Suggested Bet – Off The Press WIN
