Summary of best bets:
Next best: Race 10 No.1 Jigsaw
Turf Talk:
- Rail goes out 9m.
- Suspect the best ground will be slightly off the fence, but those on speed should still have an edge.
- Light southerly winds favour horses on speed, especially out of the sprint chute.
Race 1
Speed comes from (7) Xtra Rush and (5) Stylish Secret. Just an even tempo.
Hard not to be taken with (1) Foujita San’s first run for Shane Jackson at Flemington. He got straight to the 2000m and was super late. There was more depth to that race and, provided he doesn’t have a significant ratings dip second-up, he should prove awfully hard to beat. He went back from gate nine first-up but expect him to settle handier here.
(7) Xtra Rush comes through the same race as Foujita San and suspect he may have gone too slowly there, which took away his asset – his high cruising speed. That said, not sure he should be favourite ahead of the top weight, even with the map favours.
Selections:
(1) Foujita San
(7) Xtra Rush
(2) Jimi Hendrix
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 2
First two picks in the race were scratched…. not an appealing contest. (8) Gentle Steel leads. Outside of that the speed looks hard to pinpoint.
(1) Oh Too Good can be handy with freshness on her side. She is very well weighted under the conditions of the race. and he can run a race fresh. Synthetic hoof filler off, jump-outs have been good and suspect Daniel Stackhouse will ride her positively. Would’ve liked to see her trial a little better, the small knock.
(7) Photograph will need luck off a low draw. She has a nice turn of foot, jump-outs have been sound and her 5-0-0-0 on dry ground is a bit misleading as she has had little luck in many of those runs. Think she is short enough though.
Selections:
(1) Oh Too Good
(7) Photograph
(8) Gentle Steel
(2) She’s Got Pizzazz
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 3
Small field but the speed should be reasonable. (7) Foxenberg has a lightweight and 2kg claim – he normally races on speed at 1100/1200m, so suspect he rolls here over 1400m. (5) Al Duca is an on-speed galloper resuming and should be right up there.
Was originally keen on Enxuto. Don’t much like the race now.
The Corstens-Larkin team is flying, headlined by (4) Harry’s Yacht. He will get a nice run up near the speed and is a winning chance, but this is tougher than recent starts.
(3) Athanatos has jumped out OK for his return.
(1) Veight is the obvious class and they have thrown the kitchen sink at him in terms of gear changes – just very hard to back off last start.
Selections:
(4) Harry’s Yacht
(3) Athanatos
(7) Foxenberg
(1) Veight
Suggested Bet: No Bet
Race 4
Speed from (1) Bossy Benita, (6) Sister Shay and (9) Betwitchery.
(1) Bossy Benita got an absolute picnic in front when winning the Mannerism this track and trip last start. Goes up 3.5kg but she will again have the advantage of being on speed. That said, have to take her on as favourite with more pressure engaged here – just hope a few jockeys make it a contest.
(7) Teine Aulelei was climbing all over their backs in the Inglis Sprint first-up – she should have finished much closer. Sticky draw in gate two for a mare that gets back, but think she is best saved for one short sprint at them. Only bested by Sheza Alibi when last at 1400m and there are certainly no Sheza Alibis here.
(9) Betwitchery ticks a lot of boxes. She will roll forward and make her own luck near the speed. Horse and stable flying.
(8) Yum will be charging late but her first-up run was a touch flattering given the tempo – she was home the 77th best last 400m and 83rd best last 200m split of the meeting.
Selections:
(7) Teine Aulelei
(9) Betwitchery
(1) Bossy Benita
(8) Yum
Suggested Bet: Backing Teine Aulelei
Race 5
This is a very even contest. Speed should be strong.
Give (8) Empire Song a hope at odds. His trials have always been excellent and think there was merit to his win at Yarra Valley last campaign. Form out of the race has been OK with the second horse winning twice since. Jump-out this time in was outstanding – if he can bring his dawn work to raceday he will be right in the finish.
(3) Toronado Queen would not be the first horse to not handle the Flemington straight. She was excellent at Cranbourne two back – if she brings that form to Caulfield she is in the mix.
(6) High On The Hill trialled nicely leading into the campaign and justified heavy market support with a reasonably dominant win at Kilmore. Maps perfectly here and can measure up.
(7) Hook ‘N’ Spur will be strong late off a good tempo.
Selections:
(8) Empire Song
(3) Toronado Queen
(6) High On The Hill
(7) Hook ‘N’ Spur
Suggested Bet: Small bets Empire Song / Toronado Queen
Race 6
Good speed. (3) Brung King is at his best when rolling along at a genuine tempo (as seen at Warrnambool three and four starts back). (5) Cat Noir also likes to lead.
(3) Brung King was left in front a long way from home at Ballarat last time out and was beaten by (7) Zeshadow, who had a softer run and got out beyond the middle of the track, which was where you wanted to be by that stage. If he can reproduce his ratings from successive Warrnambool wins earlier in the campaign then he is a huge chance.
(11) Inherently ran third in the Brung King/Zeshadow race and was only first-up there. He has since run well at Warrnambool and is looking for the mile now. He is on the back-up from running well there on Monday – if he handles the quick turnaround he is a big hope.
(2) Sir Atlas maps well here but is very well found in the market.
Given I am favouring the Ballarat race as the best form reference, (7) Zeshadow also has to be respected – and she will get a nice run from gate one.
Selections:
(3) Brung King
(11) Inherently
(7) Zeshadow
(2) Sir Atlas
Suggested Bet: Small plays Brung King / Inherently
Race 7
Looks to be a good deal of speed. (2) Knurl, (4) The Troubleshooter, (8) Phillip Island, (10) Miss Chanel and (11) Lagunanini all have good speed. Don’t think (9) Valaroso or (7) Lomu are that far away either.
Give (9) Valaroso a hope at good odds. Both jump-outs leading into this have been excellent. A professional type who should put himself up on speed. Big price.
(3) Big Wigs was home the best last 600m, 400m and 200m splits of the meeting behind subsequent Flemington winner, Medicinal. That was a strong Maiden at Ballarat – strong enough form to measure up here. He will get back, but the step to 1200m is ideal and a strong tempo suits.
(10) Miss Chanel will measure up here. She has race experience on her rivals and the form around Chayan and Chilli Girl looks solid. She is on the quick back-up from last weekend which is only a positive from this stable – they get it right time and time again with two-year-olds.
(5) Jourama will relish the step from 900m to 1200m. He was only getting warm on the line at Newcastle and had trialled well leading in.
Selections:
(9) Valaroso
(3) Big Wigs
(10) Miss Chanel
(1) Milsons Point
Suggested Bet: Backing Valaroso and Big Wigs
Race 8
Not sure where the speed comes from. Maybe (1) Light Infantry Man off the pole, provided he jumps cleanly. Could be a moderately run affair.
(5) Birdman has a ripping turn of foot and that could stand him in good stead in a race where there doesn’t look to be much tempo. Unlucky not to win first-up before producing a strong rating winning the Blamey last start. The 1800m should be no issue third-up – he won the 2000m Kingston Town third-up last campaign.
Like that (1) Light Infantry Man has been given five weeks between runs out of the first-up Carlyon win, as several horses have struggled out of that fast-run race on quicker back-ups. Jump-out between runs should have him up to the mark. Takes plenty of catching.
(2) Buckaroo was scratched from the All-Star Mile with a temperature. Never ideal, but the stable would not be running him if he had not recovered. He bounced out of a 1400m Memsie to run well second-up in the 1800m Underwood last campaign and follows the same pattern here.
Selections:
(5) Birdman
(1) Light Infantry Man
(2) Buckaroo
Suggested Bet: Wait until raceday
Race 9
Speed comes from (13) Celibate, (7) Veyepee and (5) Diamond Gust. (2) Ornos and (10) Pavlich should not be far away either.
Blinkers go back on (12) Salty Pearl for the first time this campaign. When they went on last preparation she ran fourth in the Caulfield Guineas before winning a 1600m Group 2 race at The Valley. She had no hope the way the track played at Flemington last weekend but produced one of the best backmarker runs of the day. Maps ideally off what looks a reasonable speed.
Give (9) Cinturato a good hope on speed. His rating was only fair at Cranbourne when winning first-up but he was eased right up late. Always had an opinion of him and that win fresh suggested he is ready to start delivering on that promise.
(14) Star Of Omaha was terrific first-up down the straight. A filly I’ve always had some time for and while 1100-1600m may prove a bridge too far at this stage, including her in everything at a big price.
Potentially the best horse in the race is (1) Different Gravy who was visually excellent in two wins prior to a spell. He had no luck in the Hill Stakes in Adelaide prior either.
(7) Veyepee ticks a lot of boxes and maps well after sitting wide when winning on the Heath track last time out.
Selections:
(12) Salty Pearl
(9) Cinturato
(1) Different Gravy
(14) Star Of Omaha
Suggested Bet: Keen Salty Pearl. Something small on Cinturato at double figures. Including Star Of Omaha in everything at a big price.
Race 10
Good race this. Some real quality up the top.
The top weight (1) Jigsaw has to give all his rivals weight but so he should. He is totally airborne. The Meteorite he won back in November has been a very strong form reference going forward. He has since been to New Zealand and beaten a handy field in the Group 1 Railway.
(2) She’s Bulletproof has a ripping second-up record. She was just fair in the Oakleigh Plate but she was also only fair first-up last campaign before winning the Northwood Plume over this track and trip.
(4) Ndola seems best suited at 1200m despite doing plenty of racing over slightly further earlier in his career. He will get back and charge late.
(3) Corniche was good at Cranbourne at his first start for Shawn Mathrick.
Selections:
(1) Jigsaw
(2) She’s Bulletproof
(4) Ndola
(3) Corniche
Suggested Bet: Surprised by the price of Jigsaw. Think class prevails.
