Summary of Best Bets:
Race 2 No.1 Light The Night (Next Best) – Hit the line well last start, suited rising slightly in trip
Race 5 No.10 She Rex (Best Roughie) – Makes local debut, her best rating sets her up well if she can produce
Race 10 No.5 Mic Drop (Best) – Impressive stable debut, gets a favourable race map in this
Race 11 No.1 Vexatious Dancer (Best Value) – Drops sharply in grade, expecting a bold front running effort
Turf Talk:
- Racing across the two Morphettville tracks here today, the first 3 races of the meeting with be run on the inner parks circuit while the remaining 8 races will be on the course proper
- The weather remains clear and warm in Adelaide so expect the meeting to start on a Good 4 rated track
- The rail will be in the True position for both tracks
- The Parks track favour on speed types more but then expect an even track for the races on the course proper
Stats that matter:
- Caitlin Jones is in hot form, she has ridden 16 winners in her last 100 rides with a POT return of +31.7%, she is booked for 7 rides here today.
- Darryl Dodson only brings the 2 runners to the races today but continues to consistently produce winners, he has saddled up 19 winners in his last 100 starters returning a POT of +54.6%
Race by race overview
Race 1:
(7) Torpedoes had to endure a tough run from a wide barrier last start but was still solid to hold onto 2nd. He gets a much better map here today and looks likely to be suited on the inner parks track.
(10) Cathay Express appears suited rising to the 1400m trip having hit the line well in her two career runs so has the scope to improve enough to be a winning chance.
(11) Pretty Perky got caught out wide last start and disappointed when well in the market, she can bounce back here with a much better race map on a track that should suit.
(2) Mikki Tango was finishing off strongly last start running some of the fastest closing sectionals of his race and stays here at the 1400m distance which will suit with the better race map he gets today
Selections:
(7) Torpedoes
(10) Cathay Express
(11) Pretty Perky
(2) Mikki Tango
Suggested Bet: No bet, Torpedoes looks hard to beat but after a price that’s at least even money or better
Race 2:
(1) Light The Night was doing his best work late last start when producing the 2nd fastest L600m sectional of the meeting at Murray Bridge but couldn’t quite catch the leader. He is in good form and a rise back up in trip to the 1250m distance looks ideal as long as the track is playing fairly.
(2) Regal Ripper ran well to win his maiden last time out and maps to be positive in the run, if this Parks track is favouring on speed types, he potentially gets the run of the race.
(9) You’resogolden set up well at Oakbank to get her maiden win showing good speed there, she is drawn out wide which makes it tougher but if she can find the front quickly she can go on with it.
(3) Beachbarbeckons was doing his best work late in the run when he resumed, he may be better suited rising in distance after this run but if they run this race at a fast tempo it might set up for him to run over the top late.
Selections:
(1) Light The Night
(2) Regal Ripper
(9) You’resogolden
(3) Beachbarbeckons
Suggested Bet: (1) Light The Night (Win)
Race 3:
(7) Cielao was made to work up on speed last start off a very quick tempo which may have told late when she was caught and had to settle for 2nd. She may be better suited here today on a track that favours on speed types and if she gets a softer time up on speed, she should be stronger late.
(5) The Sprinkler has been in good form and hitting the line strongly in recent runs, the last start race rates well for benchmark grade and he rates well here but the risk will be at the start, he could be in an awkward spot if slow away from the barriers which he tends to be.
(11) Zarkana comes out of the same strongly rated race as The Sprinkler and was strong late in that run, she looks close to finding her best form but is another who needs an even track if she settles back in the run again.
(6) Headphones has been consistent and in this race with a potentially moderate tempo she may find herself settling closer in the run which will suit.
Selections:
(7) Cielao
(5) The Sprinkler
(11) Zarkana
(6) Headphones
Suggested Bet: No bet, would want to see how the track is playing, any signs of favouring leaders and Cielao looks a bet
Race 4:
All bar one of these 2YO runners are on debut here today so relying on trial form in this.
(3) Expensive Taste comes across from Victoria and has looked very good in two trial wins at Flemington, jumping from barrier 1 should see her get a good run.
(2) Ole Go looks the best of the runners coming out of local trials having won a recent jump out at Murray Bridge in good time for the day.
The Stokes stable bring (1) Big Wigs to the races for the first time and they have recently had a good record with their 2YOs here in SA so expecting he will be here on debut in good order.
(4) Image Artist is the runner in the field who has race experience when running 2nd on debut, experience could be her advantage in this.
Selections:
(3) Expensive Taste
(2) Ole Go
(1) Big Wigs
(4) Image Artist
Suggested Bet: No bet, not keen to dive in to a 2YO race with little exposed form
Race 5:
(10) She Rex makes her debut for a new stable here today. Cody Reardon has had a good recent record of finding tried horses to join his stable and She Rex showed good talent at a recent Gawler trial and some of her better ratings in Victoria would be good enough to win a Maiden at this level.
(12) Prestige Ka Ying has run into the placings in her last two starts and looks well suited in a Maiden of this level, drawn awkwardly is the only concern.
(4) Rathlin Express was caught out wide last start and tired late in the run, he maps better here today and is back to the 1200m so expecting improvement.
(5) Sayersitisn’tso won a recent trial at Murray Bridge in good fashion so can see him putting in a strong performance on debut.
Selections:
(10) She Rex
(12) Prestige Ka Ying
(4) Rathlin Express
(5) Sayersitisn’tso
Suggested Bet: (10) She Rex (Each-way)
Race 6:
This is a good level race for a BM78.
(5) Teardrop Rotation kicked this prep off with two wins before heading to Flemington to tackle a stronger level race, she performed well there to finish in the placings and returning to SA, down in grade should set her up well.
In a race with a moderate tempo it may suit (4) I Catchem Fox who potentially leads the race and if he can run this at a soft tempo he may be hard to catch given he is at a high level of fitness deep into this prep.
(1) Darknconfidential resumes off a let up, he was in strong form prior to the break but over longer distances, despite this he has a good record at the 1600m trip so could be suited.
(8) Wild Winner gets in light at the weights and can race positively, she should be better suited dropping back in trip today.
Selections:
(5) Teardrop Rotation
(4) I Catchem Fox
(1) Darknconfidential
(8) Wild Winner
Suggested Bet: No bet, tough to split some of these as it looks like race of the day.
Race 7:
(10) Mrs Penny Cracker is in good form including a last start win and hit the line strongly last time at the 1700m so now looks ready to rise to the 2000m and should again be fighting the race out late.
(5) Smother looks likely to handle a rise in distance having run on well in his last start, his win two starts back has looked a good level Maiden with some winning form coming from it since.
(16) Angiemarie comes across from Victoria, she was a good winner 1st up before pulling up with an issue in her next run, she was well supported last time to bounce back but was only grinding to the line, rising to the 2000m looks suitable now.
(15) Talent Scout had some excuses in his run last start at Seymour, expecting he can bounce back here and run a better race.
Selections:
(10) Mrs Penny Cracker
(5) Smother
(16) Angiemarie
(15) Talent Scout
Suggested Bet: Tough again, not keen to be betting
Race 8:
This is the feature of the day, the Listed Durbridge Stakes.
(2) Sghirripa hasn’t been anywhere near his best this prep in stronger races over in Victoria and has been freshened since those performances, he looks better suited back in his home state and a recent trial win suggests he can find his better form again. Last time we saw him over the track/distance set up he was a close 2nd at Group 3 level.
(9) Prairie Flower had little luck in the Christmas Handicap here recently but hit the line strongly when getting clear air, it is always the risk with her race pattern that she needs luck and maps to be out the back again here today but expect she will be strong late.
(1) Klabel was the winner of the Listed Christmas Handicap, this Listed race sets up similar for him again and he maps well to the inside but may cop more pressure on speed today, his best form could prove far too good.
(4) Sir Now can be troublesome at the barriers but if he is switched on he rates highly, jumping from barrier 3 should give him a good run.
Selections:
(2) Sghirripa
(9) Prairie Flower
(1) Klabel
(4) Sir Now
Suggested Bet: No bet, happy to only be watching the feature
Race 9:
(5) Florey has come back in good form with two wins from three runs this prep, she was quick through the line last start to win so a rise up to the 1600m trip should suit, she draws low so should also get a soft run to help.
(4) Mellifluent has been hitting the line strongly over the 1600m and now drops in grade and maps well from barrier 1, she could be well set up here to perform at big odds.
(11) Chur Nibble has good speed and could lead this race up from a low barrier, he was caught late at Gawler over the 1700m trip, so he looks likely to appreciate dropping back slightly in trip.
(3) Magarten is on debut for a new stable having been moved over from Victoria, some of his career best runs have come at the 1600m trip so this looks a good kick off point to see where his recent form sticks out.
Selections:
(5) Florey
(4) Mellifluent
(11) Chur Nibble
(3) Magarten
Suggested Bet: No bet at this stage, Florey looks the one to beat but may have a small bet on Mellifluent if the inside lanes are playing fairly and he is still double figures
Race 10:
(5) Mic Drop was an impressive winner to kick off his career here in SA. This race is only a small rise in level to handle but she looks likely to get a favourable set up as key speed influences in the race are drawn out wide and may have to run this at a fast tempo, she can sit just off that speed and be well set up to be strong late, looks progressive enough to win again today.
(6) Daisydoo continues to be consistent this prep with 3 placings to her name. She drops in weight here, which could help her late, and she is going well enough to be competitive again.
(8) Blanc Visage was a good winner at Gawler last time out and is rising in grade again, 2nd up and fitter now she has previously improved to be a 2nd up winner and gets a soft race map from barrier 2.
(2) Been Our Angel dropped in grade last start to get a win, back up in grade now but with confidence he can go well here from an on-speed position but may need to work hard from a wide barrier early.
Selections:
(5) Mic Drop
(6) Daisydoo
(8) Blanc Visage
(2) Been Our Angel
Suggested Bet: (5) Mic Drop (Win)
Race 11:
(1) Vexatious Dancer drops sharply in grade here having competed at Listed level in her last start. Back in grade and with Campbell Rawiller back in the saddle, she could find enough improvement to prove hard to catch here from an on-speed position.
(13) Angel Torque is in good form and ran well in a stronger race last start, she hasn’t received any favours here with the changes from last week’s meeting and now draws an outside barrier which may make her run trickier.
(4) Zebella comes into this race fresh, she is generally well supported and has been a hard follow for punters but again gets a favourable race map set up and could take catching.
(6) Clarence had a tough run last time out wide with a big weight, he looks better suited in this set up today with a light weight and inside barrier.
Selections:
(1) Vexatious Dancer
(13) Angel Torque
(4) Zebella
6) Clarence
Suggested Bet: (1) Vexatious Dancer (Each-way)
