Summary of best bets:
Best bet: Race 7 No.3 Bristler
Suggested bet: Race 3 No.1 Rich Champagne
Suggested bet: Race 9 No.11 Extinguish
Turf talk:
- Again, racing on the Morphettville Parks track, and the rail will be pushed out further again than last week and will be +9m 1000m to WP, +6m Remainder. Sectional 612m.
- Expecting clear conditions race day and expect the meeting starts on a Good 4, generally with the rail out in this position and in good conditions, the advantage is to be on speed
Key stats:
- Teagan Voorham has found a purple patch of form in her last 50 rides. She has ridden 10 winners in that period at a POT of +45.8%
- Michael Hickmott has a strong hand Saturday here at Morphettville as well as at Ballarat. He has produced 19 winners from his last 100 starters at a POT return of +11.9%
Race 1
This 2YO race has been affected by three horses coming out of the race leaving the field at only three.
(1) Inhabit impressed when winning on debut in a race that has produced subsequent winning form, she looks a type who is progressive and will prove hard to beat with an on-speed race pattern.
(6) Moana Spirit makes her debut here. She comes from a strong stable who are willing to travel with this young filly, her recent trials suggest good talent.
(2) Czech Out rounds out the numbers, he is a local who is coming into this having won a recent trial at this track.
Selections:
(1) Inhabit
(6) Moana Spirit
(2) Czech Out
Suggested Bet – No bet, looks Inhabit’s race to lose but no value betting into this race.
Race 2
(4) Shisuta Bo is a last start winner rising in grade now. She drops back in distance but feel this is no query given she maps to race on speed and expect this track set up will suit her racing pattern.
(6) Mystic Wonder is in career best form having finished in the placings in all three runs this prep including a win. She rises to the 1400m trip for the first time but has been strong through the line in 1200m runs this prep, so it looks a suitable rise.
Expecting (7) Beauty Rising will be fitter 2nd up now where she has previously had good success, if she can get a soft run, close to the speed she should handle the 1400m trip with little worry.
(2) Thebigsosso is in flying form having won three in a row now, it is hard to knock winning form so he needs to be included but may get back in the run so will be hopeful for an even track.
Selections:
(4) Shisuta Bo
(6) Mystic Wonder
(7) Beauty Rising
(2) Thebigsosso
Suggested Bet – No bet, how the track is playing will be key and it’s hard to be confident in that early in the day
Race 3
(1) Rich Champagne comes into this race fresh and down in grade from the recent runs he has contested. He contested a hot Horsham Cup and prior to that won The Murtoa Cup. This is his first look at the 2400m trip, but he gets a positive race map which is expected to suit and will help his chances.
(4) Kirkliston Blu improved into the placings last start when rising in trip, this race looks a similar level, and he maps for a better run here so can be an improver.
Forgiving of (5) Capulet’s last start run when in the market. Made to work early, he struggled to see out the trip, but if he can get a softer run early in the race he is a likely improver.
If they run this race along quickly out in front, it could set up for one like (3) Grinzinger Bishop who will settle just off speed and gets in with a light weight
Selections:
(1) Rich Champagne
(4) Kirkliston Blu
(5) Capulet
(3) Grinzinger Bishop
Suggested Bet – (1) Rich Champagne (Win)
Race 4
(6) Regal Ripper was well supported to win at Kilmore recently but didn’t get everything go his way in a forgivable run. Expecting he can be an improver here on a dryer track and with his positive racing pattern.
(4) Light The Night has been competitive in some well rated Maidens this prep and perhaps this is an easier field than he has met into this prep. He can win with the right run but might need luck from a wide barrier.
(8) Torpedoes is on debut and has looked handy at the trials, Michael Hickmott is in good form and places his horses well so expecting he can run well here fresh.
(1) Act Natural has been a hard follow for punters having managed 10 placings in his 10 career runs, always around the mark so expect he can go close again.
Selections:
(6) Regal Ripper
(4) Light The Night
(8) Torpedoes
(1) Act Natural
Suggested Bet – No bet, confidence may be higher with Regal Ripper if the track is showing signs of a leader’s bias
Race 5
It looks likely that this race will be run at a quick tempo in the early stages which sets it up well.
(7) Zoupurring will go around with a light weight on his back which looks suitable in this field as key rivals rise in weight. He was slow away last start which may have cost him the win, so a clean jump here today lands him in a strong position.
(1) Chicago Storm is in good form having won 2/3 runs so far this prep including defeating key rivals last start in The Gytrash Final. Maps to be forwards in the run and has a strong record over this track and distance (4:2-2-0) can win again if he handles the big weight.
(4) Sir Now never really got going in his last start so expecting some level of improvement here today, if he can settle closer in the run, he may be better suited.
(3) My Khalifa maps to settle back in the run, so will need an even track but has the turn of foot to run over the top of them late if given the chance.
Selections:
(7) Zoupurring
(1) Chicago Storm
(4) Sir Now
(3) My Khalifa
Suggested Bet – No bet, very competitive race where I can make a genuine case for majority of the field.
Race 6
Certainly think that (1) Out Of Square is the best horse in this race but she is a runner who likes to get back and how the race shapes looks a worry for her chances, particularly as the favourite. Will have more confidence if the track is playing fairly but as it stands thinking favouring runners with a positive race map will be better suited.
(2) Kinetic Jewel is 2nd up here today and generally improves with additional fitness, and she maps to lead. She looks likely to land in a strong position and is better suited here today.
(4) In Love steps up in grade having won first up into this prep, she is another runner who will be positive in the run and likely suited by expected conditions.
(5) Majesticity crosses the border having had consistent form in similar level races so could measure up here with the right run.
Selections:
(2) Kinetic Jewel
(1) Out Of Square
(4) In Love
(5) Majesticity
Suggested Bet – No bet, would be tempted to pivot to back Out Of Square if the track was proven to play fairly
Race 7
(3) Bristler has been impressive in his last two starts when recording a win two back before a close finishing 2nd last time when up in grade. He will push forwards and gets to find that position quickly from a good barrier so expect he will be suited at this track and dropping in grade.
(1) Winning Revolution rates highly and is also down in grade for this run, expect he will hit the line hard but if the track is favouring on-speed types, he may not get the right run.
(2) Free Beer is consistent and has had excuses in his last two starts, back to the 1000m might suit if he can get the right run from a wider barrier.
(6) The Magistrate led them up in his last start before fading out of the race late, he is much better suited here back to the 1000m trip.
Selections:
(3) Bristler
(1) Winning Revolution
(2) Free Beer
(6) The Magistrate
Suggested Bet – (3) Bristler (Win)
Race 8
(1) Bootlegger has been in super form, a winner two starts back and a close 2nd last time, both of those runs were up in grade so he should be suited here at this level and maps well towards the inside, looks hard to beat.
(2) Round Two has been costly recently when he can’t settle into a race, he gets back to a suitable trip here again but he needs to settle in the run to find his best form, can push forwards and be prominent.
(6) Silver Chaos looks likely to race in the perfect position on speed, this will be a step up for her in level off the back of her last start win, but she looks likely to handle it if she gets the leading position softly.
(3) Conni Island has been heavily supported in early markets, and his recent form is up in grade from what is expected here today, could be a chance to pinch this with the right run.
Selections:
(1) Bootlegger
(2) Round Two
(6) Silver Chaos
(3) Conni Island
Suggested Bet – No bet, Bootlegger is the runner to beat but no spoils at the price.
Race 9
Liked how (11) Extinguish raced up on speed in her last start, she maps to do a similar thing here today which is likely going to suit in what may be a moderately run race. She was well supported last time out, and this race today may be more suitable.
(1) Jilladora rates highly here, dropping down in grade today from her previous run on finals day. She maps much better than last start and should appreciate a drier track so expect improvement.
In what is likely a moderate race, (7) France’s Boy looks the likely leader of the race and could be a chance to pinch the race if given a soft time out in front and coming in with a light weight may help late.
Victorian visitor (10) New York Scandal should find this an easier race than what she contested last start and if the track is fair she would be no surprise here, just need the right run
Selections:
(11) Extinguish
(1) Jilladora
(7) France’s Boy
(10) New York Scandal
Suggested Bet – (11) Extinguish (Win)
