| Race | Horse | Summary |
|---|---|---|
| R5 | Bad Detective – BEST BET | Can be stronger late with a softer run on speed. |
| R9 | Jilladora – VALUE | Gets her ideal track and trip set up today |
| R3 | Skadoosh – NEXT BEST | Finished strong last start. Easier assignment today. |
| R7 | Ndola | Class runner of this field. |
Turf Talk:
- The rail for today’s meeting goes out again from last Saturday and will be +7m 1000m to W/post and +5m the remainder.
- Minimal showers are forecast so expect the track will be a Good 4 come race day.
- Advantage is expected to be with runners who can settle forward of midfield as the average settling position of winners at the 600m last weekend was 1.2L from the leader and lanes 3–7 look likely to be ideal going in the straight.
The Stats that Matter:
- Young trainer Justin Pickering had a winner in the final race last weekend and is striking well when bringing runners to Morphettville Parks. He has a winning strike rate of 18.4% at an impressive POT of 79.6% at this track.
- Connor Murtagh is a jockey in form. He has been operating at a POT of 14.2% over his last 100 rides and an even more impressive POT return of 40.8% at this track itself.
Race 1
Interesting race kicks off the meeting with some of these runners facing off again since meeting in The Balaklava Cup and you would assume they all have their eyes on the upcoming Murray Bridge Cup next. (3) Watadeel finished off strongly to run into the placings last time, expect he can be strong here again and goes well at this track. (2) Pudding was running well in Victoria before running into 2nd in The Balaklava Cup. He is in good form and drawn to the inside could give him a good run in this small field. (5) Beautiful Jewel needs to take a step up in grade to win here but has looked handy in 2 runs this prep and also maps as the race leader which might suit in the small field. (1) Goldrush Guru is a class runner and a Group 1 level performer. He didn’t show a lot when resuming but will have improvement rising in trip for this today. The risk is he has to give weight to in-form runners at this level.
Selections:
3. Watadeel
2. Pudding
5. Beautiful Jewel
1. Goldrush Guru
Suggested Bet – No bet. Don’t have a lot between Watadeel & Pudding but the small field leaves little value.
Race 2
(3) Lavish Thinker has been tough to catch for punters in his last 3 starts when running 2nd in all 3. He was well supported last start but ran into the in-form Rabtat. Lavish Thinker is proven over these staying trips so giving him another chance. (4) Burning Bright is another runner who has the strong form line through Rabtat. She is in good form herself having won 2 in a row, but this is her first go at a trip this far which is the only query. (5) Infinity Imperial ran a solid 2nd in a similar rated race to this last start. Expect she will be around the mark and the consistent (2) Dixie Whistler should race up on speed and could get race map favours if it is a slow tempo.
Selections:
3. Lavish Thinker
4. Burning Bright
5. Infinity Imperial
2. Dixie Whistler
Suggested Bet – No bet. Lavish Thinker looks best suited at this trip, but hard to trust him for now.
Race 3
Plenty of handy maiden form lines coming into this race but the strongest on paper looks to be for (13) Skadoosh who comes out of the races won by handy types Intellectual & Snow Mercy. She hit the line strongly in that last start to finish into the placings so suggest if she can finish off like that again here she will prove hard to hold out. (1) Golden Tunes has run into the placings in both of his career starts and on this track maps to get the run of the race as he looks the likely leader in a race that may lack pressure up front. (10) Gin Explosion makes her debut. She comes from a good stable, and recent trials have been good so wouldn’t surprise. (4) Virtual Illusion is another runner making his debut, he was impressive in a last start trial making up good ground late but he may need luck on debut here given the wide barrier.
Selections:
13. Skadoosh
1. Golden Tunes
10. Gin Explosion
4. Virtual Illusion
Suggested Bet – Skadoosh WIN
Race 4
(1) Sharendipity hit the line strongly last time out in a race that rated well. She is staying at the 1000m trip here today so she may need luck late to be able to run on, but she looks value given recent form lines. (4) Dapper Don is on the quick back up now. He presented to win late in the race but got run over late. Less pressure in this race on speed could help him be stronger late. (2) Bay Of Zea maps to lead again here and gets a soft run to get there from barrier 3. Dropping slightly back to the 1000m could help his chances late. (7) Thunder Shoc was disappointing last start having been well supported in markets. If she can recapture the form she was producing two or three runs back she can go close.
Selections:
1. Sharendipity
4. Dapper Don
2. Bay Of Zea
7. Thunder Shoc
Suggested Bet – No bet. If betting would want to be waiting until late when we have seen if the track is playing fair enough for runners to make ground.
Race 5
(5) Bad Detective set a quick pace last start and was pestered up on speed but still managed to hold on well enough to finish 4th. He remains in a similar set up here today but with potentially an easier time of it on speed so expecting with a softer run he will be stronger late and could prove tough to catch. (4) Thermodynamic is one runner who may also look to push forward from a favourable barrier. He has been consistent since a win in a similar grade to this 3 starts ago so expect he will be around the mark again. (2) Warparty was brave last start to hold on to share a win last time. Needs to take a step up in grade here but is in good form. (3) Shisuta Bo was a winner at good odds in a meet week meeting recently, she wouldn’t surprise here given she has a favourable race map and gets in well at the weights after an apprentice claim.
Selections:
5. Bad Detective
4. Thermodynamic
2. Warparty
3. Shisuta Bo
Suggested Bet – Bad Detective WIN
Race 6
(6) Silent Emmy is on the quick back up after a solid run freshened last start. She should be fitter for that run and looks suited dropping slightly back down in distance with a favourable race map. (8) Guru Warrior looks well suited rising in trip after hitting the line strongly in his last start. He was strongly supported last start so expecting he will be well found here again. (3) The Mansman has run into the placings in his last 2 starts including finishing within 1.5L of the exciting Anthracite last start. That is a strong form line to be following recently. (4) Cullen Skink is fitter 3rd up now and rises in trip. He appears better suited here today 3rd up into the prep and he should get a sweet run from barrier 4 that gives him a strong chance.
Selections:
6. Silent Emmy
8. Guru Warrior
3. The Mansman
4. Cullen Skink
Suggested Bet – No bet. Expect Silent Emmy wins but she is short enough in the markets now for a staying race.
Race 7
Victorian visitor (2) Ndola resumes here today. He was contesting Group level races last prep including running 2nd at Group 2 level. That is a strong form line to be bringing into this BM80 level race. He is likely better suited over more ground but he has won 1st up previously and should have too much class for this field. (4) Zoupurring got the sweet run up on the rails last start to win in what was a handy field. This may be tougher now, but he has previously been an improver 2nd up into preps. (7) Zebella resumes in this. She found a good level last prep and was competitive in stronger races in Victoria. She has a good 1st up record and gets a favourable race on speed. (1) Karacasu surprised at decent odds last time in what looked a handy field and with the right run again he can be finishing strongly.
Selections:
2. Ndola
4. Zoupurring
7. Zebella
1. Karacasu
Suggested Bet – Ndola WIN
Race 8
(9) Vallencourt was perhaps disappointing last start at Balaklava when well supported but dropping out quickly in the race. Suggest she had an issue as her form previous to that was much better. Happy to forgive her for that one bad run and she can bounce back on a track that should suit. (1) Bristler rates well in races of this level and can race on speed which should suit but he probably needs an easy run to see out a strong 1250m. Next come the Stokes pair in (6) Nicish & (3) Falanghina. Leaning more towards Nicish who is in better form and likely settles closer in the run but Falanghina may be able to swoop over the top in a race like this if the leaders go too quick in the early stages of the race.
Selections:
9. Vallencourt
1. Bristler
6. Nicish
3. Falanghina
Suggested Bet – No bet. Want to see improvement from Vallencourt but she looks better suited here today.
Race 9
With the key scratching of race favourite Nepravda, the race map has changed a lot now given he appeared to be a key speed influence. It looks to have set the race up really nicely now for (2) Jilladora who will get a positive run from the low barrier, she is done in grade here and 3rd up now and up to the 1400m, both set ups she has a very good record over. (10) Leaving Las Vegas was well supported last time but ended up going down by only a small margin. Dropping back to the 1400m trip should suit him better today. (7) Hot Strut went up in grade last start and prior to that had won 2 in a row. Expect she will be better suited back down in this grade. (11) Extra Hot hit the line strongly last start and remains in a similar grade, as always though she may need luck late as she generally gets back in runs.
Selections:
2. Jilladora
10. Leaving Las Vegas
7. Hot Strut
11. Extra Hot
Suggested Bet – Jilladora WIN
