Track

• +7m 1600m to winning post, +4m remainder.
• With the dry track it should favour those on speed, with lanes 1-5 key in transit.
• Horses settling further back than midfield look to need a lot of luck.

Stats

• Over the past 90 days Ethan Brown is striking at 32% with a positive POT of +64%.
• Joe Pride is the stable to follow over the past 90 days up to $10 SP, striking at 18.8% with a POT of +27.2%. They are effective second and third up.

Race 1

(4) Monkhana goes firmly on top in the opener. The Denim Wynen-trained galloper just felt the pinch late when attempting 1800m for the first time, so back to her pet 1600m reads well. (5) Tenbury Wells didn’t have a lot go right first-up; he goes straight to 1600m and should be put into the race from barrier 4. (2) Kingston Charm goes in the mix – he has been well backed in early markets and should appreciate the firmer deck. (6) Agita rounds out the numbers but needs to improve.

(4) Monkhana
(5) Tenbury Wells
(6) Kingston Charm
(8) Agita

Race 2

(3) Petticoat looks big overs in this week’s Highway. The lightly raced mare has a sharp 2/2 fresh record and has looked strong in two recent trials. She maps to get the run of the race on speed and has come up juicy odds. No doubt (15) Social Circle is the danger — she impressed fresh with a change of speed and the booking of Lloyd is key. (17) Cresta Run needs a couple of scratchings to make the field but has smart, consistent recent figures and goes in the mix. The unbeaten (13) Sparklenglitter rounds out the numbers.

(3) Petticoat
(15) Social Circle
(17) Cresta Run
(13) Sparklenglitter

Race 3

Competitive BM88 over 1200m. Expect a strong, positive ride from Clark aboard (10) Rock Empire. The 301-day break is the concern, but his two fitness-building trials were good. The key to (2) Disneck is where he lands from barrier 4 – with the rail out +7m he needs to be on speed to be winning. Similar story with (8) Sergeant Major, who was strong late last start but needs a peach from Brown to offset the draw. (12) Husk rounds out the numbers from a smart inside gate.

(10) Rock Empire
(2) Disneck
(8) Sergeant Major
(12) Husk

Race 4

Exceptionally strong BM78. (14) Dance To The Boom comes out of a strong first-up rating clash when just peaking late over 1100m. She has been back to the trials where she again impressed and now looks ready to improve sharply up to 1400m. (12) Idle Flyer was dynamic fresh, showing a turn of foot – 1250m to 1400m suits from a good gate. (3) Well Timed had to do it the tough way first-up posted wide – the win was full of merit. He loves 1400m and should get a more economical run. (15) Dominetta comes through the same race and looks better suited stepping up second-up. Of the closers, (10) Bauhinia looks a big price if the tempo is hot.

(14) Dance To The Boom
(12) Idle Flyer
(3) Well Timed
(15) Dominetta
(10) Bauhinia

Race 5

(3) Vauban goes firmly on top. His last 600m figure first-up against the pattern was super. Now to 2000m second-up reads well – very hard to beat. The Waller stable has six runners but James McDonald jumps on the Waterhouse & Bott-trained (11) Elamaz – a smart front-runner on market and parade watch. (12) Birdman is dual-accepted – if here, from gate 1 he has strong claims.

(3) Vauban
(11) Elamaz
(12) Birdman
(1) Arapaho

Race 6

Smart edition of the G2 Tea Rose. The more you watch the first-up run of (2) Tupakara in the Furious Stakes, the more merit you add. She sustained a 400m run from a near-impossible spot and was still coming late. She draws better here with the shades on – big tick. (1) Apocalyptic deserves to be favourite. She looked shy between horses first-up before extending late and may be better up to 1400m outside runners. (3) Within The Law can’t draw a gate, but she was terrific late from the back in the Furious and again faces a task. (4) Kujenga, (8) Next Jen and (7) Karinska all have place claims.

(2) Tupakara
(1) Apocalyptic
(3) Within The Law
(4) Kujenga
(8) Next Jen
(7) Karinska

Race 7

Historically, the Bill Ritchie has been a key lead-up to the G1 Epsom, with Boban (2013), Kolding (2019), Probabeel (2020), Top Ranked (2022) and Rediener (2023) all doing the double. (17) Royal Patronage goes firmly on top now after choosing thsi event over the 7 Stakes. He should land up on speed from the draw and give a strong kick, he will look to make it 3/3 first up win here in Aus. (8) With Your Blessings has found another gear this prep, she has recorded back-to-back career-peaks and hits this race in form. Once again, I’d suggest they roll forward from the draw. (2) Yellow Brick goes in the mix, a consistent type who always puts in. He should lap up the riuse to 1400m with a trial between runs, right in this. (10) Kintyre is next best.

(17) Royal Patronage
(8) With Your Blessings
(2) Yellow Brick
(10) Kintyre

Race 8

The G3 7 Stakes is the feature. On paper, there looks to be genuine speed. (11) Fangirl is the horse to beat, she didn’t handle the Melbourne way of going first up but will love the setup here, back to Randwick over 1600m. She is skinny enough price wise, but is the horse to beat.  What do we do with (1) Ceolwulf? $5.50 looks short enough off a flat second-up run. He is in the mix but hard to trust. Both (3) Private Eye and (6) Lindermann will roll forward and give themselves every chance.

(11) Fangirl
(1) Ceolwulf
(6) Lindermann
(3) Private Eye

Race 9

The most anticipated race of the day, the G2 Shorts over 1100m — a key Everest lead-up. Classique Legend (2020) and Redzel (2017) did the double, while Nature Strip ran second here before winning the Everest in 2021. (2) Private Harry picks himself off exceptional trials. He maps to land on speed doing no work and has the most upside. You could argue (1) Briasa beat him on a fair deck in the G1 Galaxy, but how much has Private Harry improved? Briasa looks sharp, putting himself on speed in trials, and should get the back of Private Harry in run. If they overcook it up front, (4) Joliestar will be screaming home, flopping out the back and unleashing late. (10) Generosity had a barrier trial first-up and is not hopeless with clear air.

(2) Private Harry
(1) Briasa
(4) Joliestar
(10) Generosity

Race 10

(9) Perfumist finally gets out in trip after two flat 1200m runs and should improve sharply. One of the trickiest races on the card. Respect (5) Lord Penman, who rises sharply in trip, but $2.70 looks rock bottom. (14) Narbold is well placed by Waller and has been the definition of consistent this prep, though he will need luck from the draw. (9) Perfumist finally gets out in trip after two flat 1200m runs and should improve sharply.

(9) Perfumist
(5) Lord Penman
(14) Narbold
(12) Fortune