Summary of best bets:
Best bet – Race 6 No.6 Hawker Hall
Next best: Race 5 No.9 Plaintiff
Value bet: Race 4 No.2 Dark Simba
Best roughie: Race 8 No.15 Pippie Beach
Quaddie: 2,6,7,13 / 1,2,9,11,14,15 / 4,2 / 2,3,4,10 – Wide open quaddie this week! Going wide in the first two legs and trying increase the percentage with just the two runner sin the third leg. Another tough race to finish.
Turf Talk
- Rail +4m – Expecting an on speed advantage here with a firm track and the rail out in the +4m position.
Stats that matter:
- Over the past 90 days Tom Sherry is striking at an impressive 32.1% with a positive POT of +79.2%.
- The Gary Portelli stable has been one to follow over the past 90 days up to $10 SP, the team is striking at 25% with a impressive POT of +44.7%. They are effective with runners first, second and third up.
Race 1
Peace Officer goes on top in this week’s Midway. He’s been consistent this prep without winning, smart use of the claim and draws ideally.
Callistemon should enjoy the drier conditions this week; she’s a second-up winner from the past and should also enjoy a smart running transit from the draw.
Cape Byron gets in light at the weights with Roper’s claim, strong last-start win and should enjoy sticking to 1500m. Trafalgar Square rounds out the numbers after being well backed in early markets.
Selections:
(1) Peace Officer
(7) Callistemon
(4) Cape Byron
(12) Trafalgar Square
Suggested Bet – No Bet
Race 2
The Chris Waller-trained Full Hao brings a consistent profile to this event. He comes back to the home track and the Sydney way of going, stays at 1800m and is the horse to beat.
Natoya will get back from the draw but in the small field should only spot the leader 5L. Back to 1800m is a tick, but the firm deck may be a concern.
Horizons comes off a strong last-start win, hard here but has claims from the good draw. Eclair Encore rounds out the numbers.
Selections:
(1) Full Hao
(3) Natoya
(2) Horizons
(4) Eclair Encore
Suggested Bet – No Bet
Race 3
Santatime maps ideally from barrier 1 in the big field, strong last-start win at Gosford and should enjoy the drier deck and 1500m here.
Tietar maps sticky but from the kind 1500m starting point should aid. Back-to-back strong wins and should be suited back to 1500m.
Mount Bona maps ideally from barrier 6; back to 1500m is an alright query but that can be offset with a positive ride. The in-form Stormbringer goes in the mix, another who maps well and brings a strong last-start win to this event.
Selections:
(3) Santatime
(1) Tietar
(9) Mount Bona
(7) Stormbringer
Suggested Bet – No Bet
Race 4
Intriguing affair. Dark Simba goes on top, encouraging first-up run when hitting the line well from back in the field, strips fitter and gets a positive map and jockey aboard.
Mortal Halo didn’t have a lot of luck last start, gets in well at the weights and is the danger.
Automne Tree returns to the home deck off some consistent runs, he maps well from the draw and should get his chance again.
Swift Legend brings back-to-back wins to this event; this looks to be harder again but he still has upside to come.
Selections:
(2) Dark Simba
(9) Mortal Halo
(7) Automne Tree
(5) Swift Legend
Suggested Bet – Dark Simba WIN
Race 5
A complete race in two over the 1200m. Happy to stick with Plaintiff here second up; the well-bred filly was dominant on debut with the runner-up coming out to win since also. She draws out but in the small field should land outside of Supermassive, her danger, and prove the horse to beat.
Supermassive was strong last start when winning, he gets an ideal third-up set-up here and will look the winner for a long way.
Nitro gets the shades on third up and is suited in the small field. The consistent Sanctified is next best.
Selections:
(9) Plaintiff
(7) Supermassive
(4) Nitro
(5) Sanctified
Suggested Bet – Plaintiff WIN
Race 6
Another contest which looks to be a race in two. I’ll side with Hawker Hall who has huge upside to come, plenty of merit in his first-up run when pushed back to the inferior inside ground. He gets the run of the race now second up and is 2/2 over 1100m.
Joe Pride has Crepe Myrtle flying, back-to-back dominant wins and took care of Swordplay easily last start. Maps ideally but does need to improve again.
Dollar Magic is another who has tactical speed and should roll forward from the draw; smart event tick-over trial and goes in the numbers. Carbonados rounds out the numbers with a gap between runs.
Selections:
(6) Hawker Hall
(7) Crepe Myrtle
(4) Dollar Magic
(2) Carbonados
Suggested Bet – Hawker Hall WIN
Race 7
Plenty of speed here with the majority of it drawn out wide. Bella Corazon goes on top here off the back of an impressive first-up run; she has tactical speed herself and should land up on speed.
Wings Of Desire was a smart first-up winner for the new camp, tricky draw here but will likely roll forward.
Maid Of Moolah was only fair last week; she races on the quick back-up now and can improve.
The market watch is on Changingcolours. Two quiet trials and looks ready to launch first up with the smart use of the 3kg claim. The last-start winner Super Nui rounds out the numbers.
Selections:
(13) Bella Corazon
(7) Wings Of Desire
(6) Maid Of Moolah
(4) Changingcolours
Suggested Bet – No Bet
Race 8
One of the more open races you’ll find. Happy to put Pippie Beach on top, a smart fresh mare who gets in very light at the weights. The cherry on top is the kind map in the big field.
The stablemate Chica Mojito is another who springs well fresh; she’s been very well backed in early markets and maps to get every chance.
Whinchat has been trialling up well, a tricky horse to catch, so we will lean on the market late.
Grid Girl comes to Sydney off back-to-back progressive wins, right in this with luck. West Of Africa is next best off some slick trials.
Selections:
(15) Pippie Beach
(14) Chica Mojito
(2) Whinchat
(1) Grid Girl
Suggested Bet – Pippie Beach WIN
Race 9
Not a whole lot of speed to report up front.
Hurtsville Zagreb presents off a complete forgive run last time out at Kembla, back to a firm deck and up to 2000m reads well.
King Pedro finally broke the maiden last start; with the confidence on his side he can improve sharply now. Kind Words comes right into the race now with some key scratchings, peak fitness and is ready for 2000m now.
Belle Detelle rounds out the numbers, the dry deck is the concern.
Selections:
(4) Hurtsville Zagreb
(5) King Pedro
(3) Kind Words
(4) Belle Detelle
Suggested Bet – No Bet
Race 10
Impossible end to the program with mass scratchings now too.
Step Aside has a smart fresh profile and has trialled up well enough leading in. The use of the 3kg first up does read well on paper.
Silvanto draws ideally in barrier 2; wet or dry doesn’t matter with this consistent gelding. Tuned has to go in the mix, back-to-back impressive efforts this time in and should find this slightly easier compared to both races. Bartolf is next best for an in-form O’Shea & Charlton camp.
Selections:
(3) Step Aside
(14) Silvanto
(2) Tuned
(10) Bartolf
Suggested Bet – No Bet
