Summary of Best Bets:
Race 4 #4 Miss Hades – Best Bet
Race 6 #3 Livin’ Thing – Next Best
Race 6 #5 Steel Strike – Bet
Turf Talk:
- Rail True – Expecting a very fair track overall with tempo likely to dictate races. This is the fairest rail position at Canterbury.
Stats that matter:
- Tom Sherry is striking at 32.1% over the past 90 days with a POT of +53.6%.
- Joe Pride stable is striking at 27.1% over the past 90 days (to $10 SP) with a POT of +24.9%. Effective with runners first, second and third up.
Race by race overview
Race 1:
Cracking Maiden to open the meeting.
(5) Misty Veil did a terrific job on debut in a hot race – the overall time and margins stacked up well. Second up now with race fitness and experience, she should be hard to beat.
We finally see the covers come off (2) Ice Kool, a trial star who has been running slick times out in front. He does give away race experience and looks very short in early markets.
(1) Farnished has been gelded into this prep and has caught my eye at the trials. Smart draw but may need the run.
(6) Capdiva was no match for Misty Veil on debut but can improve.
Selections:
(2) Ice Kool
(5) Misty Veil
(1) Farnished
(6) Capdiva
Suggested Bet: Ice Kool (Win)
Race 2:
Chris Waller holds the key to this race with nine of the twelve runners produced from his stable.
(10) Miss Lola looks the pick of them coming off a credible last start effort against the pattern of the day. Collett should use the gate to advantage.
(11) Pink Persuasion can also use the lack of speed and soft draw to land on speed. Peak fitness now and ready for 1400m.
Intrigued to see (1) Man Of Worth debut in Australia – impressive recent trial but will need luck from the wide draw.
Selections:
(10) Miss Lola
(11) Pink Persuasion
(1) Man Of Worth
(4) Botanist
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 3:
Good race this. Solid speed expected up front which is key.
I like the drop back to 1000m for the now race-fit (4) Swordplay – it looks her race to lose.
(5) Lull has only had the one trial leading in which is a slight query, but she’s clearly talented. Any late yard support must be respected.
(2) I Found You will get back and look to run on off what should be a fast speed.
Selections:
(4) Swordplay
(5) Lull
(2) I Found You
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 4:
I like the set up here for (4) Miss Hades. The in form Portelli camp has her going superbly, and she was smart fresh. She can only improve second up and finds an easier race with less pressure.
The firm deck is the query for (2) It’s A Wonder – she can handle it but is capable of mixing her form on this surface. Still, she’s in the mix.
(3) Kingston Charm stays at her pet 1600m and looks well placed back in grade. From gate 3, look for Nash to be more positive.
The last-start winner (5) Nantucket Island rounds out the numbers.
Selections:
(4) Miss Hades
(2) It’s A Wonder
(3) Kingston Charm
(5) Nantucket Island
Suggested Bet: Miss Hades (Win)
Race 5:
It’s (2) Bestower’s race to lose on paper – ultra consistent but does lack the killer instinct. The rise to 2400m is key, but the firm deck can see her mix her form.
(7) Sting In The Tail draws well in the small field and is coming off a solid 2400m effort. The dry deck is a big tick.
(1) Black Babylon peaks fourth-up coming off a smart win, but this looks stronger and 60kg makes the $4.40 look short.
(6) War Ribbon is next best.
Selections:
(2) Bestower
(7) Sting In The Tail
(1) Black Babylon
(6) War Ribbon
Suggested Bet: No bet
Race 6:
Big field with plenty of tempo to round out the program. Happy to attack this race with a two-pronged strategy.
Livin’ Thing has caught my eye again at the trials. The 4yo looks to have come back better and draws ideally fresh.
Steel Strike has come up huge odds — back-to-back smart trials in good time and maps to land on speed.
I respect Tequila Baby who again draws well, peak fitness now and should be in the finish.
Peace Centre strips fitter second up and importantly keeps Clark aboard.
Selections:
(3) Livin’ Thing
(5) Steel Strike
(13) Tequila Baby
(6) Peace Centre
Suggested Bet: Livin’ Thing (Win) / Steel Strike (Each Way)
