Betsy’s Sydney Set: Concorde Stakes Day

The Plan Of Attack

Turf Talk:

• The last time we were at +4m was Apollo Stakes Day – expect lanes 2–6 to be key, with tempo likely to dictate races overall.

Stats

• Over the past 90 days, Adam Hyeronimus is striking at a massive 23.8% with a positive POT of +30.3%.
• Joe Pride is the stable to follow over the past 90 days up to $10 SP, striking at 20.4% with an impressive POT of +39.3%. He is effective with runners second and third up.

Race 1

Cracking betting race for our Midway contest – there doesn’t look to be a huge amount of speed up front. The market has missed (4) Tenbury Wells – his form reads “0–8–9–9” last prep but that was all in group company. Steep drop in class here and he’s looked sharp in recent short-course trials. (3) Mogwai is another who can bounce back here at big odds – better than recent form suggests and a firmer track suits.
The top two in the market, (1) Denman Star and (5) Bellenth, come off solid last-start efforts but both look well exposed market-wise.

Selections:
(4) Tenbury Wells
(3) Mogwai
(1) Denman Star
(5) Bellenth

Suggested Bet – Tenbury Wells EW

Race 2

The two Danny Williams-trained gallopers (4) Kreon and (1) Highway Strip look key chances in this week’s Highway. Of the two, (1) Kreon maps a lot better and goes on top. I respect (4) Highway Strip, but he’ll need luck from gate 19. Big market/parade watch on the fresh (5) So Magnificent – first up with no official trials creates interest. The consistent (6) Cambar rounds out the numbers from a smart draw.

Selections:
(4) Kreon
(1) Highway Strip
(5) So Magnificent
(6) Cambar

Suggested Bet – No Bet

Race 3

One of the more intriguing BM78s you’ll find. Excited to see the covers come off talented mare (10) Spirit Of Wealth – she demanded attention in back-to-back wins to kick off her career before pulling up with an issue after starting $3.40 in a G2 Roman Consul at just career start three. Two electric trials back this prep and maps to lead them up – Group class mare in the making. (9) Chidiac looks to be the immediate danger – dominant fresh win when running time, though the 8 weeks between runs is the query. (2) Kimberley Secrets was impressive first up when winning; wet to dry is the question mark now. (8) Island Dec is next best.

Selections:
(10) Spirit Of Wealth
(9) Chidiac
(2) Kimberley Secrets
(8) Island Dec

Suggested Bet – Spirit Of Wealth WIN

Race 4

Glory Daze will come out of this market – he’s down to run on Friday in the Wyong Cup. It was some win last start by (8) Travolta, one of the few to run on from worse than midfield across the meeting. Back to a firm track creates a question mark, as does the smaller field, but he looks extremely well placed with 53kg. (1) Changingoftheguard bounced back to form quickly last start on a firm track – expect McDonald to use the big weight to bowl along and make this a true test. (6) Muktamil maps ideally from barrier 7 bringing consistent Victorian form. (2) Cleveland is next best.

Selections:
(8) Travolta
(1) Changingoftheguard
(6) Muktamil
(2) Cleveland

Suggested Bet – No Bet

Race 5

Wide-open BM94 with a stack of chances. (13) Shohisha goes on top – terrific two back over 1600m when beaten by subsequent winner Pippie Beach before a freshen and a “top-up” 1100m run. Back to 1600m and ready to win again. Simply put, if (11) Fully Lit runs up to his last-start figure he wins – can he replicate it back on a dry deck though? (6) State Of America can improve sharply back on a dry deck at massive odds. (12) Aberlour is thereabouts as well.

Selections:
(13) Shohisha
(11) Fully Lit
(6) State Of America
(12) Aberlour

Suggested Bet – No Bet

R6 – Furious Stakes

Wonderful edition of the Group 2 Furious Stakes for the fillies over 1200m – some nice fillies have won this race. Runs in transit look key here; at the odds I’m happy to lean the way of (2) Tupakara – smart trials, smart form lines from last prep, should blend into the race smoothly using the three-wide line. I’m convinced (16) Apocalyptic is the best filly in the race; the query is barrier 1 and the price. (1) Within The Law was great first up giving away race fitness on a Heavy 10; much better suited on top of the ground, but has a task from the draw. (7) Agarwood brings a smart $2.80 SP from the Rosebud when not handling the wet deck; trusting that SP and the stable, she has to be a big chance here.

Selections:
(2) Tupakara
(16) Apocalyptic
(1) Within The Law
(7) Agarwood

Suggested Bet – No Bet

R7 – Chelmsford Stakes

Intriguing edition of the Group 2 Chelmsford Stakes. In a race dominated by stayers resuming, (2) Ceolwulf is the out-and-out Group 1 1600m galloper. He blundered the start and went wide before letting rip the final 600m; should have a kinder run from the inside draw and looks a cracking bet. (3) Vauban is the danger – electric first up last prep over 2000m and sharp in a recent 1250m trial. (4) Lindermann is the big watch; can mix form but on his day is right in this race. The one I want to be against is (5) Sir Delius – class horse but all form is over 2400m+.

Selections:
(2) Ceolwulf
(3) Vauban
(4) Lindermann
(5) Sir Delius

Suggested Bet – Ceolwulf WIN

R8 – Concorde Stakes

Fascinating edition of the Group 2 Concorde Stakes. In my mind, it’s a race in two between (4) Lady Shenandoah and (5) Headwall. Of the two, (5) Headwall is the out-and-out 1000m galloper with most to prove, drawn perfectly and holding a 5/9 1000m record. (4) Lady Shenandoah is clearly the best horse in the race; 1000m is the question mark. (1) Jimmysstar has to go in the numbers – he’ll likely to drag back and find the line first up wuth the wide draw, but if they overdo it early, he’ll come right into the picture. At odds, (6) Ostraka can run a cheeky race.

Selections:
(5) Headwall
(4) Lady Shenandoah
(3) Jimmysstar
(6) Ostraka

Suggested Bet – Headwall WIN

Race 9 – Tramway Stakes

Plenty of angles to take in this year’s Tramway Stakes. Four-year-olds have been dominating early-season races. (15) Swiftfalcon goes on top; sharp trials and draws well for a midfield role. (5) Private Eye has no option but to be positive from the wide gate – a big tick for backers. (2) Linebacker is intriguing and somewhat forgotten; wide draw but should roll forward and be tough to gun down. The trio mentioned here all present first up off trials – (9) Coleman, (13) Waterford, (7) Pericles – we’ll lean on the market and parade late for a better guide.

Selections:
(15) Swiftfalcon
(5) Private Eye
(2) Linebacker
(13) Coleman

Suggested Bet – Hold fire at this stage

Race 10

Rounding out the program with the Bjorn Baker-trained (1) Point And Shoot – smart first-up SP when never suited on the heavy deck, strips fitter second up and will relish firm conditions. (4) Well Timed trialled impressively twice; sharp fresh profile and maps well. (2) Mogul Monarch is expected to bounce back sharply second up. (11) Winston Hills next best – will appreciate a drier track.

Selections:
(1) Point And Shoot
(4) Well Timed
(2) Mogul Monarch
(11) Winston Hills

Suggested Bet – No Bet