Australian Guineas Day at Flemington rarely disappoints and Saturday delivered a meeting packed with emerging talent and several performances that will shape the autumn carnival moving forward.
A few runners stamped themselves as autumn headline acts, others remain victims of circumstance, while a few key performances raised genuine concerns heading deeper into the carnival.
Here’s this week’s Buy, Hold and Sell from Flemington.
BUY
Race 1 – Gin Twist
It didn’t look an overly strong juvenile race on paper, but the performance of Gin Twist suggests she may be well above average. She ran slick overall time (56.06s), comparable with Bridal Waltz later in the meeting, and produced the fastest final 400m split of the day despite appearing to have plenty left in reserve.
Her form continues to strengthen in hindsight, having finished ahead of Streisand two starts back, and in what shapes as an even Golden Slipper crop, she profiles as the type capable of heading to Sydney and measuring up.
Race 6 – Educated
This is a serious horse. The overall time was only fair, but she was held up until the 250m and eased down late, leaving plenty in reserve. Her Cranbourne run two starts back rated strongly and she’s a filly who simply glides across the ground.
The way she travels suggests she’ll measure up at the very top level as her career progresses.
Special mention – Star Of Omaha:
The fast tempo suited, but Andrew Angelone appears to have a filly with genuine upside. She shapes as one who improves sharply once stepping beyond 1100m, with her trials and early racing consistently pointing toward above-average ability.
Race 7 – Mark Twain
Some return from this stayer. He recorded the best last 1000m split of the meeting alongside the ninth-fastest final 200m fraction, signalling a horse ready to peak as distances rise.
Birdman flies to win the Blamey 🦅 @BMelham @cwallerracing pic.twitter.com/ZzqHOBYqZq
— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) February 28, 2026
After failing to fire during the spring for Roger James and Robert Wellwood, the stable switch to Phillip Stokes looks to have revitalised him. He profiles as a major player through the staying features this preparation.
HOLD
Race 2 – Rue De Royale
My comments on Friday: “…they went too slow on (1) Rue De Royale last time out, leaving him a sitting duck for Ndola. He was left in front and went 6.2L below standard to the 800m, turning the race into a sit-sprint, which doesn’t suit him.”
Unfortunately, the same scenario unfolded again on Saturday, with the tempo even slower (7.1L below standard), effectively taking away his winning chance and playing directly into the hands of a sharper finisher like Dirty Grin. Had he rolled along even a couple of lengths quicker early, he likely wins comfortably. He’s a frustrating profile at two wins from 25 starts, but his Flemington straight-track victory five runs back came in a genuinely run race, and that remains the key to him finding the winner’s stall again.
Flemington Race 2 | Dirty Grin
Dirty Grin soars over the top with big strides to win well 😁 Rhys McLeod had one ride today, & it is a winning one ☝️
📺 Ch. 78/68, Foxtel 529, Kayo or via our app
REPLAYS: https://t.co/ZIa4a02wC0 pic.twitter.com/oRcfJawKNf— Racing.com (@Racing) February 28, 2026
Race 8 – Planet Red
Been a fan of this horse from day dot and still convinced he’s a Group 1 winner in waiting.
Suspect if Jamie Melham had her time again she may have been more positive in the first 200m. He basically had the back of Observer early and likely could have found a position as the field spread, although that’s easy to say with hindsight.
Melham also appeared to have an opportunity to expose him into clean air soon after straightening rather than remaining tucked in behind Victorious Spirit. Either small tactical change may well have altered the result.
Tactical speed is part of genuine top-level talent, and that’s what makes Observer such a good horse. It’s also why Planet Red continues to produce the ‘flashing light’ run. Had Planet Red drawn barriers one through six, he probably wins the Guineas.
When he steps to 2000m next time out, conditions look set to finally fall his way and it would be no surprise to see him break through at Group 1 level.
Sell
Race 5 – Mcgaw
Hard to believe he beat Tentyris and My Gladiola four back! There’s no doubt he has talent, but trials looked concerning and his performance on Saturday was that of a horse that may not have come up. He still does a lot wrong, getting his head up in the run, but he was well below his best and it’s a big mountain to climb to see him winning this campaign.
Bridal Waltz is too classy! She edges out Midwest in a thriller down the straight 💪 @BMelham @moodyracingpgm @kscoleman pic.twitter.com/wt3CFnxpRW
— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) February 28, 2026
Race 7 – Air Assault
Controlled the tempo at an even speed. Cruised along with his head on his chest. Was very weak late given the run he was afforded.
Forgive Run – Alpha Sofie
Disappointing as favourite in the Inglis Sprint, but she raced fiercely when experiencing the Flemington straight for the first time. That early over-racing compromised her finish and she’s worth forgiving entirely under more suitable circumstances next start.
