Caulfield Cup runner by runner preview

With thanks to next2go.com.au, Betsy brings you a runner by runner preview of the $5 million Group 1 Caulfield Cup. 

Matt Jackson from Next2Go says they are happy to “oppose the favourite.”

“He profiles perfectly for this year’s Caulfield Cup, but we see the draw as a negative, so will be taking her on at the current odds.”

In terms of horses Next2Go are keen to keep safe, Jackson identified Royal Supremacy and Golden Snap. 

“Royal Supremacy turned in a huge performance to win the Metropolitan, making a long, sustained run and hitting the front too soon. It was an excellent win.”

“The Japanese runners have a decent record in the race and while Golden Snap is poorly drawn she does have a good run to the first turn to offset.”

Prices quoted are from next2go.com.au and are correct as at 8am on October 17. 

1. VAUBAN – Gai Waterhouse & Adrian Bott – Blake Shinn – 58.5kgs ($11)

Form in Australia since being trained here has been a little hit and miss, albeit he was good in The Metropolitan with not much luck. Gets the services of leading rider Blake Shinn and certainly has the miles in the legs from a fitness perspective but just feel he’ll need a clear career PB to win with 58.5kgs on what he’s done in Australia and given that happy to side against him.

2. PRESAGE NOCTURNE – Alessandro Botti – Stephane Pasquier- 57.5kgs ($34)

Has some solid ratings in France with Racelab, ranking above 106 at his past 3 starts including a good 3^rd in the Prix Kergorlay which has been a key reference to the Cups in years gone past, notably with the likes of Americain (2010) and Dunaden (2011). He hits the race in good form and on the up, so he ticks some boxes but the query for him is whether he needs further and don’t love backing fly-in riders for these races, which Pasquier is, and he will be having his first ride at Caulfield. Top 6 player but inclined to risk him here and wait for a Melbourne Cup.

3. MIDDLE EARTH – Ciaron Maher – Mark Zahra – 56.5kgs ($13)

He was a good effort first up here at 2000m and has found the Underwood & Turnbull Stakes too hard with slow tempos playing against him. In the right stable and has the right jockey aboard in Mark Zahra. In the Turnbull run he was just warming up the last 200m and on that you can forecast improvement up to 2400m, albeit he is weighted up to his best and other runners from that form reference appeal more. Genuine Top 5 chance, especially if we get a fast run Caulfield Cup as he’s crying out for a true test of stamina.

4. MEYDAAN – Simon & Ed Crisford – Andrea Atzeni – 56kgs ($8.50)

Lightly raced son of Frankel who is on the way up, coming here off a clear career best in the September Stakes behind the classy Giavellotto, who subsequently ran well in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (one of the best races in the world). He was well beaten there though and never looked a threat to the winner. He draws for a decent run for Atzeni and the Crisfords did travel West Wind Blows here a few years ago with good success without winning a race, so clearly in the right stable. I can’t help but feel though that he’s incredibly tight in the market and that he may be better suited at a bigger track as he does take a while to wind up.

WATCH: Meydaan’s last start in the September Stakes

5. ABSURDE – Willie Mullins – Ben Allen – 55.5kgs ($26)

He’s been here for the past two Melbourne Cups and run well in both, especially last year when racing in restricted room in the straight to finish 5^th when carrying 52.5kgs. His form in Europe this year though, on ratings, is down on previous years, coming in with 3 runs at the 100 mark on RaceLab in his lead up, compared to last year when he came in with a 104.5 for his win at Chester. I’m also not sure he’s advantaged with Gate 1 as he can use some room to move, negating that though is in form rider Ben Allen. Be no surprise to see him run well but given his form this year and fact he’ll need luck from the inside draw, have a few others ahead.

6. LAND LEGEND – Chris Waller – Jamie Mott – 55.5kgs ($26)

Ran 3^rd in this race last year when pulling hard in the run and being exposed a long way out, he then failed to stay the 2 miles strongly in the Melbourne Cup. He does seem a more complete racehorse this year, given he is settling better in his races. He was good late in the Underwood Stakes catching the eye with the 3^rd best last 200m of the race. However, the Turnbull Stakes didn’t work out for him as he settled back and could never get warm finishing last, although again had good splits late in the race. Like the booking of Jamie Mott and do feel he has a sense of timing. Could see him running a bold race at an each-way price.

7. ZARDOZI – Ciaron Maher – Harry Coffey – 54.5kgs ($23)

Best of Zardozi would see her a leading player in the Caulfield Cup. Her runs in last year’s Melbourne Cup when 4^th and her 3^rd in the G1 Australian Cup from a ratings perspective have right in the game, the knock is she hasn’t produced a run like those since joining the Maher stable. She does get the blinkers on though and booking of Harry Coffey, who won this race last year and is a terrific rider of stayers. Her run in the Turnbull was sound enough to suggest she’s on track for an uplift 4^th up. Do feel though she’s better off at Flemington and with a rain affected track.

8. ADELAIDE RIVER – Kris Lees – Jordan Childs – 54kgs ($26)

Talented import who took a while to acclimatise to Australian conditions but has performed to a good level at his past two starts, in what has been a perfect Caulfield Cup prep with runs at 1400, 1600 and 2000×2 giving him a great platform to perform on the big day. He can roll forward and did run a bold race in the Turnbull for 7^th, when leading at a slow speed (which maybe didn’t suit him) and he was racing in tight room late so arguably could’ve finished closer. He’s crying out for 2400m and his old form in Europe around Auguste Rodin when 2^nd in an Irish Derby and his win over Al Aasy (who towelled up Meydaan) in the Kilternan Stakes in 2023 is exceptional reading for this. By far the best roughie in the race and is a leading contender.

9. BANKERS CHOICE – Ben, Will & JD Hayes – Billy Egan – 54kgs ($101)

Mornington Cup winner who has been racing in good form over the past year since being converted to staying distances and being ridden on-pace. Both runs this time in though have been below his best and even factoring in fitness improvement, it would take a huge leap for him to figure in the major money, and the draw means he could get caught wide the trip.

10. DEAKIN – Phillip Stokes – Daniel Stackhouse – 54kgs ($18)

Roy Higgins winner from the autumn, who has been building this preparation without threatening the winners of his races. He’s suited up to 2400m and has drawn for a good run from barrier 7. Loved the way he held on in the Turnbull when finishing 6^th from the front of the field on a slow speed (which wasn’t to his advantage), that was a new peak rating wise for him, and you’d have to think he is tracking to improve again on that here. Must be a live Top 3 hope on that run.

11. GOLDEN SNAP – Katsunori Tanaka – Suguru Hamanaka- 53.5kgs ($21)

Japanese mare who comes to Victoria in good form, albeit over longer trips. Her career peak rating comes in January this year at Chukyo over 3000m when running to a mark of 106.4 with RaceLab, that number, if replicated here would see her right in the finish. However, this does look like a clean out run for the Melbourne Cup and the draw hasn’t been kind with barrier 18 meaning she’ll be wide the course or need to work to the top. Happy to bet around her and wait for Flemington, despite having immense respect for the Japanese form.

12. REVELARE – Robert Hickmott – Luke Currie – 53.5kgs ($23)

Mighty impressive here early in the spring over 2000m when running over Smokin’ Romans and Mormona, with Middle Earth behind him also. He was then too good for his opposition in the Archer Stakes on a slow speed, when producing a sharp sprint at 2500m. If he came here straight off that win, he’d be a lot shorter in the market, and many would have him a leading contender. However, he isn’t, he’s here off a puzzling performance in the ferociously run Bart Cummings, when he finished 7^th beaten nearly 7 lengths, seemingly struggling on the fast speed with a big weight. He does drop right down in the weights here though and has had the miles in the legs with runs at 1600, 2000 and 2500×2, providing a proper lead up to what might be a fast run Caulfield Cup. His trainer also is no stranger to success in this race, having won it with Fawkner in 2013. I love the horse but can’t come to him off the Bart Cummings run and will be risking.

13. RIVER OF STARS – Chris Waller – Beau Mertens – 53.5kgs ($81)

Imported mare who placed in the Sydney Cup last preparation. She’s found things tough in races short of her best distance this time in and although better suited at 2400m, I think this is just too big a leap to factor her a proper contender. Not convinced even at her best she has the class to win.

14. BIRDMAN – Chris Waller – Teo Nugent – 52.5kgs ($17)

This horse was airborne prior to the Metropolitan but drew out there and had a tough trip when caught wide, so happy to forgive that 7^th. His win prior in the Kingston Town Stakes at Randwick was brilliant on a fast speed when edging out Adelaide River over 2000m there, producing a clear best performance from his time in Australia. His run in the Chelmsford behind Lindermann and Sir Delius was also a cracker prior to that. If Teo can find some cover from Gate 10 and put him to sleep mid race, then expect a big finish late. One of the contenders.

15. HALF YOURS – Tony & Calvin McEvoy – Jamie Melham – 52.5kgs ($2.90)

Anyone who follows me will know I’ve been with this guy throughout the Spring Carnival and have been tipping him for this race On Air at SEN/RSN since nominations came out. My opinion now, given that, is no doubt slightly biased and maybe even suffering from confirmation bias but boy oh boy does he look to have this race at his mercy.

His Caloundra Cup win at the Sunshine Coast was brilliant, putting the sword to some B grade stayers and racing away off a slow speed in slick time for his last 400m. He returned from a freshen up with a slashing 5^th at 1600m on a Rosehill track favouring those on speed, against the rails when he was back and wide the trip. The Naturalism Stakes went to plan with Jamie Melham giving him a sweet ride from the inside draw and him accounting for his opposition with ease, rattling home his last 400m in 22.88 seconds. He may have encountered a 1.5kg penalty for winning that race but those fears were alleviated when he ran a slashing 4^th in the Turnbull, running the quickest last 800, 600, 400 and 200m of the race, whilst taking ground on the country’s best weight for age horses in Via Sistina, Sir Delius and Antino. In my time in racing I’ve seen some great Caulfield Cup trials, Mongolian Khan’s 3^rd in the Might And Power of 2015 behind Criterion, and Jameka’s 2^nd in the Turnbull of 2016 behind Hartnell, and Without A Fight’s fast closing 6^th in the Underwood of 2023, being the best, but that run 2 weeks ago may have eclipsed all of those.

Gate 2 gives Jamie Melham a possible sweet passage behind what looks a good speed. If he gets a gap from there then I doubt anything here can hold him out, I won’t use the dreaded M Word as he doesn’t need the jinx but he’s a clear a standout pick in this year’s Caulfield Cup.

WATCH: The Turnbull Stakes

TAKE NOTE, THE REAL DEAL. SIR DELIUS ⭐

An outstanding win against an outstanding field! The Melbourne Cup favourite wins the Turnbull, and he might be Cox Plate favourite before too long 💛🏆 pic.twitter.com/A3BjvEBEUR

— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) October 4, 2025

16. ROYAL SUPREMACY – Ciaron Maher – Robbie Dolan – 52.5kgs ($8.50)

This horse is flying under the radar for the Maher stable, with a faultless lead up preparation for a Caulfield Cup. The miles are well and truly in the legs with runs at 1600×2, 1800, 2000, 2300 and 2400 metres leading in. His win in the Metropolitan is clearly a step up on his prior ratings in Australia and he has continued to improve this preparation as the distances have stepped up. He has drawn for a soft run here and is well weighted just being a 1.5kgs above the minimum. The one knock is that probably needs to find another 2 lengths to win a Caulfield Cup, regardless though he can’t be going better and has a perfect set up to perform.

WATCH: Royal Supremacy win the Metrop

👑 Royal Supremacy rules supreme in the G1 Metropolitan for @cmaherracing and @ZRKD! 🥳@aus_turf_club @Austbloodstock pic.twitter.com/t1cHJR5XJQ

— SKY Racing (@SkyRacingAU) October 4, 2025

17. VALIANT KING – Chris Waller – Jye McNeil – 52kgs ($26)

Shock winner of The Bart Cummings, when he outstayed his rivals off a hot pace. Hard to know whether he can replicate a performance like that or whether it was just a ‘flash in the pan’ so to speak. He did start $10 in this race in 2023 and ran well and has shown patches of form since, so it wasn’t a total shock to see him produce a big performance. If you think he can hold that form well he has to be a live hope, personally I don’t expect that and am happy to play around him on Saturday.

18. PLYMOUTH – Ben, Will & JD Hayes – Celine Gaudray – 51kgs ($71)

Benalla Cup winner who is on the quick back up after finishing 2^nd in last week’s Herbert Power Stakes, when he was worried out of winning by Brayden Star who kicked back to beat Plymouth, despite him getting a half length clear. That race was run at a walking pace in front and that may have been against him. However, the race rated very poor, despite the fact he has upside it just seems his form this prep isn’t good enough to see him be a leading chance here. The draw could prove tough also with him out in Barrier 17.

TOP 4 PICKS

(15) HALF YOURS

(8) ADELAIDE RIVER

(10) DEAKIN

(14) BIRDMAN

Betting Strategy: Half Yours (Win) with Adelaide River and Deakin in Quinellas.