Suggested Bets:
Best Bet: Race 9 No.1 Light Infantry Man
Two bet play: Race 8 backing No.2 Alpha Sofie/No.12 Balance
Turf Talk:
- Light southerly winds will assist horses down the side of the track. Ideal set up for on speed horses at Caulfield.
- Rail out 8m having been 4m at the last meeting, generally as the rail goes out, wider lanes are right in play.
- Defaulting to those horses in the first half of the field, able to angle to the middle of the track.
Key Stats:
- Clint McDonald is flying of late, going at 21% from his last 100 runners. The stable has also been lethal with debutantes.
- Ethan Brown has ridden 20 winners from his last 100 rides, Dean Yendall 19 from the same sample size.
Race by race overview
Race 1:
Doesn’t look a huge amount of speed. Suspect (3) Ambassadorial can take it up.
Looks a great race for Ambassadorial. He was flushed out early at Flemington last start before being run off the track by Yes I Know when narrowly beaten by Fiorenot. Hasn’t won for a while but has only had the two runs for Tony and Calvin McEvoy and they’ve both been excellent. Ready for 2000m now and maps to control the race.
(4) I Only Wish’s three wins have all come at Pakenham but she’s ultra-consistent. This is not much stronger than last start.
The toppy, (1) Bluestone has been very quietly ridden in trials but he can run well fresh. 2000m first up is ideal and this is a drop in grade on races he contested last winter.
Selections:
(3) Ambassadorial
(4) I Only Wish
(1) Bluestone
Suggested Bet: Ambassadorial the horse to beat. Not sure I want to be diving into odds on in a muddling run staying race.
Race 2:
(3) Suntora is technically well up in grade here but after the claim for Jackson Radley – who knows the mare – she’s not horribly in. She’s 22 ratings points off Berkeley Square, so should technically get 13kg off that horse after the 2kg mares claim, with Radley’s 3kg claim she gets 10kg off the toppy. She beat a very weak field this track and distance last start, but it was a totally arrogant win and she still seems to be on the up. Will just need a bit of luck at a key stage to get off the fence and build momentum.
(1) Berkeley Square is the class runner of the race. He was six-weeks between runs at Flemington last start but worked home OK (Magnaspin finished just in front of him) but like him better off 21 days here. Best would absolutely win this race, something like his best probably wins, too.
(4) Make It Sweet maps to get every chance and she looks ready to win now third-up after two good runs back.
(2) Magnaspin is on a seven day back-up for the first time in his career but he’s fit and racing well. He got a very soft lead this track and trip last week but again maps for a nice run controlling things. Key winning hope.
Selections:
(3) Suntora
(1) Berkeley Square
(4) Make It Sweet
(2) Magnaspin
Suggested Bet: Happy to watch.
Race 3:
Strong edition of the Colts and Geldings Prelude.
Suspect (7) Closer To Free, (5) Invicto and (3) Guest House are the speed horses, the former probably taking up the running.
(6) High Alert should have certainly won the 1000m Preview on debut. Knocked down at a crucial stage when making his run then super strong to the line once clear. That wasn’t a strong edition of the race, but this bloke will be better suited again at 1100m and maps for a nice run. Trials in Sydney prior to his debut also suggested good talent.
(3) Guest House has impressed in everything he has done. Jump-outs either side of his debut win at Cranbourne have been very good. And, his debut win when heavily backed was both good, and very soft. There are two queries for mine:
1. He wanted to over-race early in his jump-out between runs, would that hit-out have knocked the freshness out of him off six weeks or is he a risk of doing that out to 1100m?
2. What price you’re willing to take – for mine $1.95 is too short.
(7) Closer To Free has claims on debut. Trialled strongly on the Heath track alongside (2) Eternal Warrior, and was well in front 200m past the post. Both jump-outs this time in have been excellent and he has the speed to lead, which will give him a tactical advantage.
Selections:
(6) High Alert
(3) Guest House
(7) Closer To Free
(2) Eternal Warrior
Suggested Bet: Something 1×3 High Alert. Quinella 3 and 6.
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Race 4:
Scratching of Jacaranda took the wind out of my sails here. She will be awfully hard to beat in Sydney.
(3) Streisand was only getting warm late in the Preview, posting the best last 200m split of the entire meeting. She only had one jump-out leading into that so should strip notably fitter here. Tongue tie goes on and extra 100m a big plus.
(2) Moana Spirit was super in the Geelong Diamond and she has trialled nicely between runs. Maps well from the gate and has good race experience now, which will stand her in good stead.
Selections:
(3) Streisand
(2) Moana Spirit
(10) Medicinal
(1) Rubi’s Choice
Suggested Bet: Maybe something small Streisand.
Race 5:
Speed should be strong. (12) Davida and (11) Top Conti look the most likely leaders. (9) Cyber Link handy with (6) Top Reward. (10) Victorious Spirit not that far away, either.
Not convinced (3) Planet Red is going all that well. Trialled very nicely last campaign but jump-outs this time in have left a bit to be desired. Best is absolutely good enough to be winning this but given jump-outs and sticky map, happy to bet around him.
There’s no doubting the class horse is (1) Observer. He took all before him last campaign. Should’ve won the Caulfield Guineas before obliterating his rivals in the Vase and taking out the Derby. 1400m a nice kick off point and he’s in well under the SWP conditions of the race. He was beaten first up at 1300m last campaign but he was caught three wide the entire and it was in open age company. 1400m again his own age here is a much more suitable kick-off point.
(7) Onavuitton sat deep and belted his rivals at Cranbourne last time out (form out of the race has been good with 2nd/3rd winning since). Soft jump-out between runs to keep him up to the mark and Simon Zahra stable going very well.
(4) Arcora looks huge odds at 50/1. Obviously going to be better over further, but loved his jump-out leading into this and strong tempo up front should suit. Not the worst 50/1 pop I’ve seen.
(12) Davida will take some catching. She’s fit, racing well and has jumped-out nicely between runs. Danny O’Brien stable is airborne, too! Can run well here.
Selections:
(1) Observer
(7) Onavuitton
(4) Arcora
(12) Davida
Suggested Bet: Backing Observer with smaller bets on roughies Onavuitton and Arcora for decent results, too. Quite like the race.
Race 6:
Good race.
Not much speed after scratchings. (6) Don’t Hope Do controls. (1) Hedged right there off the pole draw.
Love how (8) Pallaton has come back. Trials in Sydney have been outstanding, especially the most recent where he beat Insurrection and Napoleonic.
(6) Don’t Hope Do isn’t a flashy jump-out horse, and that was again the case this time in when he was hard ridden to win a Flemington jump-out. He goes very well fresh and he can control the speed with the wind at his back, which will prove great assistance. Stable are in-form.
(1) Hedged is bulletproof. He will get a soft run and run you a great race. Drop back to 1100m (from 1200m) is no issue and he enjoys that suck run on the leader’s back. Not well in under the weight scale of the race by the has plenty of upside and I suspect he’s come back better than he went out.
(5) Oak Hill was super first-up over 1000m. Going to need some luck off the low draw but if he gets clean air late he will divebomb at them.
Selections:
(8) Pallaton
(6) Don’t Hope Do
(1) Hedged
(5) Oak Hill
Suggested Bet: Backing Don’t Hope Do/Pallaton
Race 7:
Speed looks decent with (5) Sandpaper likely leading from (4) Zou Sensation and (8) Jennilala.
That speed should suit (1) Tom Kitten. He has jumped-out nicely for this return and the race shape should be far more suitable than the farcically run Makybe Diva Stakes he resumed in last campaign. He was a good thing beaten when going down a nose to Mr Brightside in the Futurity Stakes this track and trip first up last summer/autumn – if he repeats that effort they won’t be beating him here. Knock is the map, he will likely get back to last from the wide draw in a small field.
Reckon (8) Jennilala is a good roughie here. She was given a very quiet jump-out leading into this and off a little freshen-up 1400m looks a most suitable trip. She can settle on speed and be in the race a long way.
(2) Veight has race fitness on a couple of key rivals. Jury has to be out on the Australia Stakes form but it was good to see this bloke return in seemingly good order after two horrible campaigns.
(4) Zou Sensation has been up a long time but been given a little freshen up into this. Racing in fine fettle and maps well, but seems too short as favourite.
Selections:
(1) Tom Kitten
(8) Jennilala
(2) Veight
(4) Zou Sensation
Suggested Bet: Want to see how the track is playing. If horses can make ground then Tom Kitten deserves to be favourite. Jennilala might be worth a few coins at a big price.
Race 8:
Good race. Speed comes from (3) Esha, (7) Wintery, (8) No Limitation, (6) Thanks Gorgeous and (1) Bel Merci. Tempo should be strong.
(2) Alpha Sofie is the horse to beat. She got the right run in the Atlantic Jewel, but she was dominant by the same token and the form out of the race has been OK. Loved her work through the line in a recent Pakenham jump-out and the forecast strong tempo should suit.
Gotta having something on (12) Balance. She has looked super in her jump-outs. Sure, she’s a debutant, but the reality is none of this 3yo fillies form has been overly rigorously tested as yet, so she wouldn’t need to be Black Caviar to be winning on debut. Clint McDonald has produced several 3yos in recent seasons that have turned in debut performances good enough to win a race like this and Balance has trialled was well as any of them.
(4) Signature Scent has trialled up enormously for her return. She ran well closer to the inside in what was a hot edition of the Cap D’antibes and was then given a break for the rest of spring, which might stand her in good stead coming into the autumn. Will need a bit of luck from gate two as think she will end up with a few horses in front of her, but has serious upside.
(5) Jenni The Ninja is yet to blow up the clock but have loved both her wins to date.
Selections:
(2) Alpha Sofie
(12) Balance
(4) Signature Scent
(5) Jenni The Ninja
Suggested Bet: Backing Alpha Sofie/Balance.
Race 9:
Speed should be right on with (5) Rise at Dawn and (6) Regal Zeus pushing forward – both horses that like to roll at a good gallop.
(1) Light Infantry Man’s first up runs in Australia have been in a Winx Stakes, Futurity, Testa Rossa Stakes all at 1400m and a Scone Cup at a mile where he had excuses. Suddenly he finds himself in a Group 3 SWP at a mile first-up, a race where he is very well treated at the weights under the conditions of the race. He has trialled in excellent fashion for this return. He’s an Australian Cup winner, All-Star Mile placegetter and winner of Group 1 Northerly at 1800m – this is a very winnable option for him.
(6) Regal Zeus is airborne. He set a strong tempo in the Barton Stakes and was able to hang on, posting strong time. He stuck out a strongly run 1600m the start prior at Sandown, so not overly concerned about the step back up to a mile. Slightly favour him over (5) Rise at Dawn of the on-pacers, with a fitness edge on that galloper. Rise At Dawn does go well fresh, has drawn soft and trialled nicely – can win.
(11) Immediacy’s first trial was very good, second not quite as good. Not enamoured with the bandages going on for the first time but maps for a soft run and likes Caulfield.
(12) Welcometotheshow continues to raise the bar each time it’s lifted – he will run another good race.
Selections:
(1) Light Infantry Man
(6) Regal Zeus
(5) Rise At Dawn
(12) Welcometotheshow
Suggested Bet: Keen Light Infantry Man.
Race 10:
Originally liked Grey Ice who has been scratched, so enthusiasm for the race has waned.
(8) Ahha Ahha is racing well – she was stiff not to win at Geelong. Trial between runs was excellent. She maps for a lovely run in the race. Seems to be looking for the mile. Stable airborne. Up in grade, but this isn’t an overly strong BM84 and gets significant weight relief as a result. Ticks a lot of boxes here.
(3) Presser had no luck in the Camperdown Cup, can run well.
Selections:
(8) Ahha Ahha
(3) Presser
(1) Verdad
Suggested Bet: Happy to watch on.
