Summary of best bets:
Best bet: Race 7 backing No.4 Amazake and No.6 Arabian Prince
Turf Talk:
- Rail goes from the 4m position to the 8m position
- Westerly winds forecast for the afternoon between 25-35km/h, that’s a headwind in the straight. It can often see horses off fence/bit of cover advantaged.
- Bit of rain forecast throughout the week should remove the need for watering and help to even up the deck.
- Wait and see how it plays the first couple of races before committing too heavily.
Key stats:
- Julius Sandhu is striking at 21% from his last 100 runners with a significant PoT of 40.7%
- Patrick Payne is also in form, going at 22% from his last 100 runners.
- Linda Meech has ridden 24 winners from her last 100 rides, but her strike rate drops to 10% at Caulfield.
- Patrick Moloney has only ridden 4 winners from his last 100 rides and has a strike rate of 4.8% at Caulfield.
Race 1
Speed looks (2) Bring Forth from the deep with (11) Mr Bannock.
(8) Almairac ran a cracker second-up at this track and trip when third to Flamin’ Romans and Nations Call in a far stronger race last campaign. His second-up record in isolation is very good, as are his stats at, or around, 2000m. Maps perfectly from gate four – right in the mix at a big price.
(5) House Of Lords comes off the best last start rating when winning over 1600m at Sandown. Step to 2000m off that looks ideal. Always had a bit of time for her as a stayer and think she’s ready to delivery on that promise.
(10) Straand Deal ran very well first-up at 1500m and is ideally suited stepping to 2000m. Trialled well leading into the campaign and I think he’s a stayer of some promise.
(2) Bring Forth got an absolute picnic in Adelaide last time out so the margin of his win flattered. Don’t think he gets it as easy here and not sure the drop back a furlong in trip is totally ideal, either.
(11) Mr Bannock was left in front a long way out last start and was down on the inferior ground. Back to 2000m suits him and he will get a lovely, soft run here.
Selections:
(5) House Of Lords
(8) Almairac
(10) Straand Deal
(11) Mr Bannock
Suggested bet: Backing House of Lords/Almairac
Race 2
Strong speed.
The big unknown is (4) Epimeles who resumes off 81 weeks, having had a suspensory injury. Resumes gelded and with bandages on the front. His trials have been electric, running fast time and doing so under his own steam. That said, he has always been an elite trialler. However, he showed terrific promise as a 2/3yo and anything like his best would beat these. Wary, tempted to back, but happy to watch.
There was bugger all between (6) Wolfy and (2) Ka Ying Cheer when they met this track and trip recently (two back for Wolfy and last start for Ka Ying Cheer). Wolfy has since run very well down the straight at Flemington. The knock is his get-back racing style which makes winning tough, but he’s airborne. Ka Ying Cheer will get a lovely run and, with the claim for Jackson Radley, meets Wolfy slightly better at the weights.
Might have him wrong but (12) King Tut seems gross unders for mine at $3.90. Comes through the same race as (7) Shaime who beat him last time out. Gets a 2kg turnaround on that galloper but this is a much stronger contest. Hasn’t really posted a number that can justify the price.
Selections:
(4) Epimeles
(6) Wolfy
(2) Ka Ying Cheer
(12) King Tut
Suggested bet: Happy to watch.
Race 3
Speed looks solid with (6) Gin Twist the likely leader from maybe (8) Chapados.
Like (2) Drumfire. Strong win when wanted to lay out on debut at Muswellbrook and then was charging at the end of 1100m at Randwick last time out. Winner of that race has since run well in the Kindgarten. Drawn to stalk Gin Twist and should be strong at the end of 1200m.
(6) Gin Twist was 35 days between runs when stepping from 1000m to 1200m at Flemington last time out. Also struck a heavy deck for the first time. Travelled sweetly but just didn’t let down late. Think she will be suited around a bend and her rating/debut performance are good enough to win this if she can stretch to 1200m.
Doubt the 1200m will be a negative for (1) Buggsy who was strong through the line when winning at Sandown on debut. Form out of that race has been OK so far.
(5) Signor Del Gatto has trialled up quite nicely for this debut. Gets a soft run.
Selections:
(2) Drumfire
(6) Gin Twist
(1) Buggsy
(4) Signore Del Gatto
Suggested bet: No bet
Race 4
A lot of form intertwines here.
(5) Il Patrigno maps for a lovely run just in behind the speed. Thought he was very good at a big price at Sandown two back and then didn’t have much luck at a crucial stage in a key form race at Ballarat last time out. From seven, should be able to build momentum as needed.
If they can make ground then (6) Silver Lightning looks over the odds at $41. Flashed late behind (3) Santana and (1) Ten Warriors at the Heath two back and was in restricted room late in the same race Il Patrigno comes through. Going to get a fair way back, but will be strong late.
(13) Dirty Look’s form ties in with key chances. She was very good wining two back on Hillside and then probably not suited as much around Lakeside when second to a handy one last start. She’s got a nice turn of foot and is suited at 1400m.
(1) Ten Warriors took a long time to break his maiden but he’s contested some hot races across his career. Nice trial between runs and maps ideally.
Race doesn’t end there.
Selections:
(5) Il Patrigno
(6) Silver Lightning
(13) Dirty Look
(1) Ten Warriors
Suggested bet: Something small on (5) Il Patrigno and (6) Silver Lightning.
Race 5
Looks very good speed. (4) Regal Tycoon, (3) Xarpo and (13) Gold Coast Belle all push forward.
(1) Terrestar resumed with a good run at Rosehill over 1200m and is better suited out to 1400m here. Best form is on top of the ground and that fresh run was on a Soft 6, so adds even more merit to the performance. Doesn’t win out of turn but last run here at Caulfield behind Oh Too Good when covering plenty of ground in the spring was solid. In an even race, she has winning claims.
(2) Butternut Princess ran a bottler in the Sunline Stakes last time out. She was clearly in the inferior ground but finished alongside On Display. Strong tempo should suit and with even luck from gate two she will prove hard to beat.
(13) Gold Coast Belle was dominant at Sandown last time out but will have to withstand a much higher level of pressure here. She’s on the up and can win, just think she’s short enough at $2.50.
(3) Xarpo doesn’t know how to run a bad race. She will be in this a long way.
Selections:
(1) Terrestar
(2) Butternut Princess
(13) Gold Coast Belle
(3) Xarpo
Suggested bet: Not a race I was overly keen on but could have something small EW Terrestar.
Race 6
This is a race with very little speed on paper. Wonder if it presents (3) Pondalowie an opportunity to press forward from the wide draw with Zahra on board. (1) Lady Jones won’t be too far away while (4) Ferivia can enjoy a soft run in the race.
If they do press forward on (3) Pondalowie I think she can win. They have been riding her quiet for some time now and it’s just not delivering the desired results. She was very good up on speed early in her career and this is the time to be aggressive.
(1) Lady Jones generally runs well fresh and she ran second this track and trip first-up three campaigns back. Trial leading into this was solid and with a soft run in the race she will be in the finish.
(2) Bossy Nic was super from the tail first-up at Flemington. Better suited at 1200m (than 1100m), just needs some luck as she is a mare that generally spots them a start.
(9) Jazz Affair has jumped-out nicely, will get a soft run, goes well fresh.
Selections:
(3) Pondalowie
(1) Lady Jones
(2) Bossy Nic
(9) Jazz Affair
Suggested bet: Backing (3) Pondalowie/(1) Lady Jones
Race 7
(4) Amazake and (1) Single Choice (amongst others) come through the 2000m Alister Clark at this track last time out. Thought Amazake was the clear run of the race – held up at a crucial stage, closest to the inferior ground, strong through the line. Was only second-up there so should have good fitness improvement to come and now gets Mark Zahra plus a 2kg swing on Single Choice.
(6) Arabian Prince dropped back to a weak Maiden at Kilmore last start and absolutely pissed in. Was in clearly the inferior ground in the VOBIS Guineas the start prior, so totally forgiving of that. Looks like a horse that will stay all day.
Blinkers went on (11) Royal Optimism at Geelong last start where he appreciated clean air in the straight to bolt in with his maiden. He will have no issues with the 2400m and should get a soft trail in the race.
(9) Lunar Force is going to make a nice stayer. Just think he needs time to wind up, which he didn’t get enough of at Kilmore last start. Wide draw will see him spot them a big start, but expect him to be storming home down the middle.
Selections:
(4) Amazake
(6) Arabian Prince
(9) Lunar Force
(11) Royal Optimism
Suggested bet: Not sure why Single Choice is favourite, have both Amazake and Arabian Prince marked shorter so happy to back 4 and 6.
Race 8
Good speed. (13) Astral Flame and (8) Al Duca the likely 1-2 in run. (7) El Rocko right there and think (12) Taken can come across from his wide draw and race handy to the speed.
Gee, this is a tough race!
(12) Taken was terrific chasing (8) Al Duca at Flemington last time out and both look key chances again on Saturday. Taken was five-weeks between runs on that occasion and was equally as good a run, for mine. Gains Beau Mertens on Saturday and he can turn the tables on Al Duca.
(13) Astral Flame went too slowly at Caulfield last time out and was left a sitting shot for Treasurethe Moment. To her credit, she was able to fend off the rest of the field. She won two on end leading into that, leading at solid tempos. Will give a sight.
(9) Merrigold flies here at Caulfield and loves a strong tempo, which she will get. Carried 60kg to win here last week and drops down to 54kg with an ideal race shape – right in the game if Linda Meech can give her a good steer.
(14) Cilacap would love a bit of sting out of the ground but either way she’s a good hope here. Gets a soft run and with the breaks in the straight will sprint at them late.
Selections:
(12) Taken
(9) On Display
(14) Cilacap
(13) Astral Flame
Suggested bet: Tough!
Race 9
Speed comes form (1) Bacash. (11) Empire Song and (6) Oliveanotherday will be right there. Think they go at a reasonable clip.
(6) Oliveanotherday looks most promising. Has belted his rivals in both starts this campaign, doing so with his head on his chest. Little trick here is drawing gate one as he’s likely to be crossed.
(1) Bacash will give them something to catch. He was coming back on the line first-up over 1100m down the straight and think he’s better suited at 1200m around a bend.
(9) Vivid Sun was very good late first-up when not in the best going. May want 1400m now but wouldn’t surprise if Meech is more aggressive on her taking over from Willie Pike.
(4) Prestige Forever has had a year on the sidelines (for a cyst in the knee) but has trialled up nicely for the new stable – Julius Sandhu.
Selections:
(6) Oliveranotherday
(1) Bacash
(9) Vivid Sun
(4) Prestige Forever
Suggested bet: No bet
Race 10
Not mad on the wide barrier but like (2) King Of The Sea. Was really strong in a couple of on-speed wins in the UK before coming out to Australia. Loved his recent Caulfield trial where he settled midfield before being very strong up the straight to win with authority. Suspect Zahra will press forward early and with even luck in running he can make a winning Australian debut.
(17) Nobler was outstanding behind Trapdoor at his Australian debut. Spotted them a huge start but was charging to the line, posting the best last 200m split of the meeting. Slow out there and drew out, drawn better on Saturday and should settle handier up to a mile. Imagine there’s plenty of improvement to come given he was off a 39 week spell.
(14) Trapdoor comes through the same race as Nobler and maps for a nice run here. Stable seem to have found some form in Melbourne.
(9) First Chorus bolted in on a wet deck first-up, different challenge on top of the ground here, but still on the up.
Selections:
(2) King Of The Sea
(17) Nobler
(14) Trapdoor
(9) First Chorus
Suggested bet: King Of The Sea E/W
