There isn’t a sprint race among the eight at Flemington on Saturday.
Glorious programming. More of it, I say.
Stamina to the fore in St Leger
Saturday’s feature, the VRC St Leger, first run in 1857, has been won by champions of the past: Phar Lap, Alegron, Tulloch, and others of that ilk. It may have lost some of its lustre in recent decades, but it remains the autumn’s defining endurance test for three-year-olds.
This year, a 17-strong field of lightly raced aspirants attempt to etch their name in the illustrious roll of honour.
One of just two fillies in the race is the market elect after setting the clock alight in a lowly BM62 at Donald 11 days ago. She was excellent in the VOBIS Platinum Guineas, finishing behind fellow grey and Group 2-winning filly Salty Pearl. She was then sent away at 3/1 by South Australian punters in the Clare Lindop Stakes, where she was never afforded a fair chance. Although I do question whether she will truly stay fourteen furlongs, she would prefer this to eventuate into a test of speed, not stamina.
Deal Done Fast, by contrast, has stamina in abundance and is in desperate need of an honest test of attrition. He was given no chance in the AJC Derby when dropped out and settled 15 lengths behind the leader. Objectively, his form towers over this field, and for him not to be favourite is madness. The market thus far has gravitated toward the progressive, but I’d contend the established is still progressive, particularly in a scenario he has not yet encountered, and one he is very likely to appreciate.
A phenomenal gamble at 3/1, and yet still not the best on Saturday.
Backing Deal Done Fast (Race 6)
Genuine tempo set to suit Bluestone
Pace looks almost assured in Race 1, with Xtra Rush, Kurakka, Enchanted Elle and Sir Chartwell all likely to vie for the early lead.
There’s a definitive correlation between races run in fast overall time and Bluestone’s peak output. When the pace is true, and mile-and-a-half races are run as endurance tests as they should be, he is a grade beyond this field. He’s encountered that scenario just twice, and both runs returned definitive career-best ratings.
Coincidence? I think not.
There is a world in which he’d be odds-on, but he has only been exposed to pace quicker than standard to the 800-metre mark twice in his thirteen-start career. That is a grotesque reflection of Victorian staying races, though I think the pressure is there this time, and he is another tremendous wager.
Backing Bluestone (Race 1)
Moderate tempo to suit Begg’s King
Maintaining the theme of pace, Merrigold evidently thrives under high-pressure scenarios. She notched a career-best at Caulfield last start amid a searching pace set up front, perfectly positioned to capitalise. This race, though, does not have those dynamics. The forecast pace is slow, so expect regression from her high.
King Zephyr, however, is tailor-made for this. His best ratings, both excellent, came on the expansive courses of Sandown Hillside and Flemington, unleashing his devastating turn of foot in races where the pace was slow.
Well fancied first-up over six furlongs before pulling up lame, which can be readily excused, he has since jumped out as if well recovered at Pakenham.
It would surprise me if he weren’t well fancied again to beat this field. Somewhere just outside 2/1 feels right.
Backing: King Zephyr (race 5)
Progressive fillies going head-to-head a mouth-watering clash
The race of the day is Race 2, pitting four highly progressive, stakes-bound fillies against each other early in their careers.
Carriedo won a race on the Lakeside course at Sandown by five lengths nineteen days ago, thrashing a decent field of her age and sex. Though she was visually spectacular, the time was not. The early price assessors may have overrated that win.
Concorde Connie, though, was backed off the boards to win dynamically first-up at Pakenham. I’d contend that she is the better of the two leading chances, and that there is far more left unseen from her than Carriedo.
Backing: Concorde Connie (Race 2)
The best of the lot:
If you’re having one bet on Saturday, make it Zakouma (race 6).
He has quickly evolved into a Stakes-grade talent under Grahame Begg’s guidance. Formerly with Pat Carey and Harris Walker, Begg has transformed him, stringing together three dominant wins so far this campaign.
His latest was the best of them, dismantling a quality handicap field.
He settled at the rear in a moderately paced race and unleashed a devastating sprint to run down the leaders and win. He finished the race in the sixth-fastest final furlong across the entire day, only bettered by five sprinters.
Well in with just 53kg, he’s beaten the handicapper up until this point, with sectional splits to suggest he has an abundance of unexplored upside. He wouldn’t look astray in a Herbert Power or Naturalism later this spring, the way he is progressing.
Backing: Zakouma (Race 5)
Summary of best bets:
Race 1 No.8 Bluestone
Race 2 No.6 Concorde Connie
Race 5 No.4 King Zephyr
Race 6 No.1 Deal Done Fast
