Good Will Hunting: Caulfield Cup

Under handicap conditions, Half Yours holds a decisive performance rating advantage over his opposition. He announced himself as a potential Group 1 weight-for-age mile and a quarter prospect, emphatically dismantling the Naturalism field by three and a half lengths. He then substantiated that level of form, gallantly running on into fourth in a star-studded Turnbull Stakes.

In the Turnbull Stakes, a race that was slowly run, Half Yours managed to finish in the fastest concluding 800 metres, 8.7 lengths quicker than what is typical for Group 1 standard over 2000 metres at Flemington. In that final 800m, Half Yours clocked sectional splits of 62.6km/h (800–600m), 67km/h (600–400m), 64.7km/h (400–200m), and 63.6km/h (200m–home), a profile that exemplifies his ability to quicken drastically and sustain his speed over a prolonged period of time, whereas his rivals’ efforts noticeably tapered off over the concluding 200 metres.

TAKE NOTE, THE REAL DEAL. SIR DELIUS ⭐

An outstanding win against an outstanding field! The Melbourne Cup favourite wins the Turnbull, and he might be Cox Plate favourite before too long 💛🏆 pic.twitter.com/A3BjvEBEUR

— 7HorseRacing 🐎 (@7horseracing) October 4, 2025

He’ll have barrier 2 to contend with, so Jamie Melham will need to ensure that he breaks cleanly and can find a prominent position, close to the pace. He will undoubtedly need a degree of luck at some point throughout the race, but he is in the right hands to do so.

In a lowly Caulfield Cup, that is without the talent of years gone by, he’s arguably the most talented horse in the race, and has been allocated just 52.5kg. A winning profile in this year’s Caulfield Cup.

I’ve assessed him as a $3.00 chance and an overwhelmingly strong favourite in this year’s Caulfield Cup.

Meydaan, from the Ed and Simon Crisford yard, adds an intriguing international element to this year’s race. His record, two wins from thirteen starts, doesn’t necessarily read well, but it’s his latest performance that commands respect.

In the September Stakes at Kempton, on the all-weather, Meydaan stuck on strongly behind Kalpana, a proven Group 1 mare, and Giavellotto, last year’s Hong Kong Vase winner and more recently fourth in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. That’s an elite reference point, and if he can translate that level of form, he can certainly win.

The Crisfords know this path well. They brought West Wind Blows here two years ago and have publicly stated that Meydaan is the more talented of the pair. He arrives with 56 kilograms, a fair impost for a horse laden with world class form lines.

Meydaan comes to Caulfield with the right profile, the right grounding, and every chance to upstage Australia’s best hope, Half Yours.

Vauban was without luck in the Metropolitan Handicap, racing in restricted room, yet still clocking the race’s second fastest concluding sectional. It hinted at a potential peak performance at his next race start, being this year’s Caulfield Cup.

He has been at the forefront of betting in the past two Melbourne Cups and a well supported second elect in the Tancred Stakes during the autumn; he’s long been touted as a horse capable of winning one of Australia’s premier staying contests.

Across both Melbourne Cup appearances, he’s loomed as if he were going to be in the finish before condition giving out late, a sign that two miles is potentially beyond him on the flat. A mile and a half, however, may be exactly what he needs to produce his best. It gives him time to balance, travel, and unravel a sustained run without hitting the physiological ceiling we’ve seen beyond 2400 metres.

He also gains the services of Blake Shinn, one of Australia’s premier riders. If the favoured runners fail to return their best figures, Vauban has the talent, and now, the conditions, to post a figure few in this field can handle.

Adelaide River was beaten for a turn of speed in the Turnbull Stakes, leading before fading into seventh. His greatest asset is his ability to withstand pressure and sustain a strong pace over a prolonged period of time, the antithesis of what the Turnbull Stakes eventuated into.

Yet to be tested beyond 2200 metres in Australia, he’s not yet been able to display his strengths, strengths that he was able to demonstrate in Europe, runner-up in both the Irish Derby and the Grand Prix de Paris.

There were glimpses of the talent he’d shown in Europe in the Kingston Town Stakes, and if he can convert that into this and make further improvement, 30/1 is severely underselling his chances.

I’m tipping the pace to be honest, as is typical of Caulfield Cups, a searching gallop that’ll draw the best of the premier stayers. With that being the case, Half Yours should have his chance, provided he gets the luck when needed and thus is deserving of overwhelming favouritism. With that said, the price looks right. Adelaide River can set the pace and give them something to catch. He is a good wager at the current price. Aside from that, the market looks correct at this stage, and I’ll wait until they’re pushing them into the gates before playing any other runners.

Will’s rated prices

*Note: Bet365 prices are correct as at 4pm, 15/10/2025.