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Good Will Hunting: Flemington delivers, but Champions Day looks a thin way to finish

Will Elford reflects on an unforgettable Melbourne Cup Carnival but fears Champions Day will be an underwhelming finale. He also identifies two horses he's keen to back at Flemington.

Matt Welsh by Matt Welsh
November 6, 2026
in Tips
Reading Time: 2 mins read
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The Flemington Carnival has certainly reaffirmed its position as the premier racing carnival in Australia, as if it had ever been knocked off the podium.

Melbourne Cup Day was the best day I’ve spent on a racecourse. The atmosphere was immeasurable. I stood with my mum as we watched Robbie Williams perform, in the middle of a mosh pit of young people singing along to Angels. Everywhere you looked, Flemington was absolutely pumping. 97,000 people at a racing event, as it should be. As someone who loves racing more than anything, that made me so happy.

The first three days have been fantastic, but I sincerely do not like Champions Day. It’s been good in previous years, but this year, I think it’s terrible.

I’m scared to imagine how many Autumn Glow into Tempted all-ups there will be.

I want to love Autumn Glow, I really do, but I just could not care less about her beating Lindermann again. That’s not to say it’s her fault, or that of her connections. She simply has nothing to race against. We know what’s going to happen.

The way Autumn Glow has been campaigned has annoyed me, though. She’s as good as Australia has seen since Winx, yet I cannot think of a single win of hers worth remembering. Maybe the George Ryder, only because I was there. You think of Winx, and you think of her four Cox Plates, particularly 2016. Black Caviar, Royal Ascot or her Newmarket.

These are the big races that actually mean something. The one race of Autumn Glow’s worth remembering, she was beaten.

I might turn the telly on to watch her beat Sepals by five.

The Champions Sprint is a good race and an interesting one, but not one I particularly want to bet into. The Champions Stakes is essentially the Cox Plate for a third time. I’ve seen it.

Matriach Stakes

Far more interesting is the Matriarch Stakes, one of my favourite races of the week. It’s a culmination for middle-distance mares, who would otherwise have to take on the boys. It’s highly competitive, with big fields every year, because there are only two Group races over 2000 metres or further for mares on the Australian calendar. The Tesio is the other.

Too Darn Discreet was beaten for speed and position on Cox Plate Day, but will be suited by a more searching pace and a 7kg weight swing on Soverato, who won that race. She’s impeccably placed under the weight scale, drawn well and has Mark Zahra aboard.

She’s a mare I’ve been waiting to back in this race for a long time.

Last preparation, she peaked fifth up over this course and distance, beating Land Legend and Plymouth. She’s in the same position in this.

If she can repeat that performance, they won’t see which way she goes.

I make her $3.60.

Race 2

Fiorenot made sufficient improvement from his first-up run to his second, when he was beaten by Buccleuch, who was subsequently backed off the boards to win on Tuesday. He raced to a new career peak last start and gave the impression there was more to come. A mile is his most suitable distance, and he’s brilliantly placed to reach another new peak.

I make him $2.80.

Will's Bets:

Race 2: Fiorenot

Matriarch Stakes: Too Darn Discreet

Tags: Autumn GlowChampions DayFlemingtonGood Will HuntingMelbourne Cup CarnivalToo Darn DiscreetWill Elford
Matt Welsh

Matt Welsh

Matt Welsh is the founder of Betsy and one of Australia’s most respected form analysts. A former executive at Racing.com and Racing Victoria, Matt has built a reputation for market-leading analysis, clear communication, and a deep understanding of both racing and wagering. With Betsy, he has assembled a team of trusted, high-quality form analysts dedicated to delivering expert analysis that will arm Betsy punters for a winning day at the races.

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