Leonchroi delivered exactly what the market anticipated from a ratings perspective at Pakenham last start, producing a career-peak performance. Despite that career-best effort, he was poorly suited by the way the race was run. He settled comfortably in fourth before the pace disappeared from the race in the mid stages, leaving him shuffled back to near last on the turn. He went from travelling seven lengths above standard for the grade to the 800 metres to conceding 11 lengths between the 800m and the 400m, before producing a sharp late sprint that again broke standard from the 400m to the finish.
If he can again settle in a prominent position and reproduce that level of form, his opposition would need to run a figure none of them has ever achieved at their respective weights.
Having shown the ability to settle further forward as this preparation has progressed, Logan Bates should look to be proactive and position him forward of midfield. If a decent pace scenario unfolds, it’s difficult to envisage Leonchroi not being involved in the finish.
There’s nothing in his profile to suggest regression, and a repeat of last start’s performance should prove beyond this field.
I’ve assessed him as a $2.60 chance, and it would be a surprise if the market didn’t gravitate in that direction as the market percentage comes down. On exposed form and ratings, he is the standout wager of the day.
