Track Conditions
Heavy 10 track as of Friday. Rain is forecast throughout the weekend, so I’m not expecting the track to get much better.
It’s a good jumping circuit, with horses from all positions getting their chance to win. It’s not a bottomless Heavy 10 like Warrnambool, but it will be a testing track nonetheless.
Race 1: Maiden Hurdle (3200m) | 1:05pm
(8) Step In Time
Was charging through the line on the flat last time. His trials have been solid enough and he comes here fourth-up. He loves the heavy going, is tactically versatile and, in an even race, is a definite winning hope.
(4) Gripping
Heavily backed on debut and was a little underwhelming despite running into a decent horse, beaten 15 lengths. Finds a similar race here without a standout favourite. He should improve from that first run and can be thereabouts again.
(6) Shogun Express
The stable is flying. He has been running well on the flat and has trialled nicely. I’m not discounting him on jumps debut.
(10) Untethered
Has shown glimpses of being a progressive jumper but then throws in the odd bad one. He’s hard to catch on the punt, but his best is good enough.
Suggested Bet: A good opening contest but a low-confidence betting race, with more than four winning hopes. (8) Step In Time each-way.
Race 2: Brendan Drechsler Hurdle (3400m) | 1:45pm
(2) Andy Win
Has been the breakout horse of the season. He will have the fitness edge on the top weight and is fast becoming a superstar of the sport. His next challenge is to knock off the top seed from last season.
(1) The Cunning Fox
Last year’s champion hurdler returns. His fitness is the big question mark. He has had only three runs on the flat and a handful of trials since May. There’s no question the Payne stable will have him ready, but he might just need the run on a testing track first-up over the jumps.
(3) Ardakan
Runaway winner last start and should get an easy enough lead. Pateman might try to break their hearts out in front, but he might just be outclassed.
(4) Gambu
Grand Annual placegetter back over the smaller obstacles. One to watch. I think he’s a genuine stayer and will be more competitive in something further. Watch for him late.
Suggested Bet: (2) Andy Win WIN. Best bet of the day.
Race 3: Maiden Steeplechase (3400m) | 2:25pm
(8) Ongatiti
Looks a nice set play from Team Maher. Has been in the placings five times, including two wins, from all five jumping starts. There is no vision of his chase trials to date, but he looks one of the more progressive types. Hard fit now and ready to peak.
(5) Mr Lincoln
Has flown home at his past two starts in good races and gets back to maiden grade here. The only query is that he might be looking for further now, but I’m sure he’ll run well again. Flying.
(9) Nassak Diamond
Took a tumble in this same race last year when she looked the winner on the turn. She will have come on from her first-up hurdling effort and, back in grade here, can run an honest race.
(7) Mungerannie
Building fitness now, finishing a close second on the flat last time and powering through the line. Has shown a liking for the jumping caper, as he showed on debut. Can be in the finish with an improved showing here.
Suggested Bet: (8) Ongatiti WIN.
Summary of best bets:
Best Bet: R2 (2) Andy Win WIN
Value: R1 (8) Step In Time E/W
Value: R3 (7) Mungerannie
Early Quaddie: 8, 6, 4, 3, 10 / 2 / 8, 5 / 1, 4, 5
Spend: $30 for 100%
