In The Lab: 2025 C.F. Orr Stakes

Racelab’s Matt Collum has taken a forensic look at the C.F. Orr Stakes using their ratings system to assist working out who’s best credentialed to take out this year’s contest. 

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In The Lab | C.F. Orr Stakes |  Group 1 1400m

The track – unique features of Caulfield course, advantages PIR/barriers:

• Rail Out 6m, Soft 7 (Soft 5 likely)
• On pacers have an advantage at Caulfield with a win strike rate of 10.8%
• Backmarkers are losing at 17% POT
• Lane 2 is performing best with a 2% POT. Coming wider than lane 4 is very difficult

Speed map & tempo:

Expecting a moderate tempo here over the 1400m trip:

Positive/negative jockey/trainer worth highlighting:

• There are a few first time riding engagements: Jamie Melham (Evaporate), Jamie Mott (Bosustow), Carleen Hefel (Pinstriped), Luke Currie (Mighty Ulysses) and Michael Dee (Vinrock)
• Carleen Hefel is winning at 50.2% POT from her last 100 rides
• Annabel and Rob Archibald are returning 43.4% POT from their last 100 races

Past 5 winners with Racelab Performance Rating:

This table outlines the Racelab rating achieved by each of the past five winners when taking out the C.F. Orr Stakes. It gives an indication of the level required to win the race in recent years for a few different levels of weight carried, margin spread and race quality.

Racelab benchmark likely to be required to win this year’s edition of the :

Based off the final field, their recent form, and potential Racelab Prime Rating, the below figures give an indication of what horses will need to achieve based on their weight carried under the WFA scale to win.

The Racelab Prime Ratings for each horse can be seen in the screenshot below.

The ratings/market:

Based off a range of data, speed map and recent form, Racelab has come up with its own 100% market, which is compared to the current market in the table below. Value exists where the Racelab price is lower than the current price.

The verdict and betting strategy:

Small field of seven runners in the C.F. Orr Stakes. Pace appears to be moderate at best with Vinrock taking up the running from barrier 7 and Evaporate sitting handy. It’s worth noting that the main hopes are likely to settle in the last pair which could be a bit tricky around Caulfield. Jimmysstar was superb winning the Russell Balding at Randwick last start. He did get a fast pace at Randwick and may not get the race run to suit today. Angel Capital savaged the line in the Everest and steps up to a more suitable distance here. Both chances seem skinny enough however. Vinrock is well weighted under WFA conditions with 53kg and gets the blinkers first time. He has a great record at 1400m (3 from 3) and looked sharp in a recent jump out. Happy to be with him up on the speed at odds!

Suggested Bet:

Vinrock (WIN)

Legend: