In The Lab: 2025 Caulfield Cup

Racelab’s Matt Collum has taken a forensic look at the Caulfield Cup using their ratings system assist working out who’s best credentialed to take out this years $5 million Group 1 feature. 

To learn more about Racelab, please click here. 

The track – unique features of Caulfield 2400m course, who is advantaged and disadvantaged based on where they settle.

• Rail +3m, Good 4
• On pacers have an advantage at Caulfield with a win strike rate of 10.8%
• Backmarkers are losing at 17% POT
• Lane 2 is performing best with a 2% POT. Coming wider than lane 4 is very difficult

Speed map & tempo:

Expecting an even tempo (see image below):

Positive/negative jockey/trainer worth highlighting:

• Ciaron Maher and Harry Coffey are returning a 29% POT
• Blake Shinn rides Vauban for the first time
• Chris Waller and Toedore Nugent are returning a healthy 17% POT
• Andrea Atzeni rides Meydaan for the first time

Past 5 winners with Racelab Performance Rating:

This table outlines the Racelab rating achieved by each of the past five winners when taking out the Caulfield Cup. It gives an indication of the level required to win the race in recent years for a few different levels of weight carried hence why Without A Fight and Incentivise ran such high figures. Only five winners have ever carried more than 55.5kg hence why getting down in the weights is so important under handicap conditions. The rating is dependent on the WFA scale and factors in weight carried:

Past 5 winners with Racelab Performance Rating:

Racelab benchmark likely to be required to win this year’s edition of the Caulfield Cup:

Based off the final field, their recent form, and potential Racelab Prime Rating, the below figures give an indication of what horses will need to achieve based on their weight carried under the WFA scale to win Saturday’s Caulfield Cup:

The Racelab Prime Ratings for each horse can be seen in the screenshot below:

The ratings/market:

Based off a range of data, speed map and recent form, Racelab has come up with its own 100% market, which is compared to the current market in the table below. Value exists where the Racelab price is lower than the current price:

The verdict and betting strategy:

They should run along at an even tempo here with Adelaide River and Bankers Choice sliding across from barrier 9 and 17. Deakin, Meydaan, Half Yours and Royal Supremacy all map to get lovely runs in transit. Half Yours has been building up to his grand final beautifully he’s clearly the horse to beat however I would like $3.3+ to back him. Deakin is ticking over nicely and the step up to 2400m is ideal. He’s got some nice ratings on the board over the trip with big margin wins to boot and will enjoy a soft run throughout. Happy to back him each way at odds!

Suggested Bet:

Deakin (EW)

Half Yours (Win if $3.3+)