In The Lab: 2025 Cox Plate

Racelab’s Matt Collum has taken a forensic look at the Group 1 Cox Plate using their ratings system to assist working out who’s best credentialed to take out this year’s $6 million WFA championship. 

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In The Lab |2025 Cox Plate | Group 1 WFA 2040m

The track – unique features of Valley 2040m course, advantaged barriers and position in run (PIR)

• Rail True, Soft 5
• Historically inside barriers (1-3) are underperforming market expectations (-11.2% ROI for horses settling on speed).
• Inside lanes are significantly advantaged with the rail in true position (lane 1 with 8.6% ROI and lane 2 with 6.8% ROI respectively).
• It’s definitely hard to make a looping run at the Valley.

Speed map & tempo:

Expecting a slow tempo since there are no natural leaders engaged (see image below):

Positive/negative jockey/trainer worth highlighting:

• Ciaron Maher & Ethan Brown are outperforming market expectations with a ROI of 7%
• Craig WIlliams, Hugh Bowman, Mark Zahra and Zac Lloyd all ride their mounts for the first time
• Hugh Bowman is a significant jockey booking considering he is based in Hong Kong and raced there on Wednesday night

Past 5 winners with Racelab Performance Rating:

This table outlines the Racelab rating achieved by each of the past five winners when taking out the Cox Plate. It gives an indication of the level required to win the race in recent years for a few different levels of weight carried. The rating is dependent on the WFA scale and factors in weight carried, hence State Of Rest– as a 3YO Northern Hemisphere Colt – produced a lower Racelab rating due to the adjustment for him carrying 56.5kg.

Racelab benchmark likely to be required to win this year’s edition of the Cox Plate:

Based off the final field, their recent form, and potential Racelab Prime Rating, the below figures give an indication of what horses will need to achieve based on their weight carried under the WFA scale to win Saturday’s Cox Plate:

Runner comments:

Light Infantry Man: Didn’t find the line in the Hill Stakes only rating 101. Anti-clockwise track helps and can improve here but has lengths to find.

Antino: Improved last start rating 110. Not sure The Valley suits but has the numbers to win.

Attrition: Had race run to suit last start rating 106 which is close to a peak rating for him. Needs a new PB.

Buckaroo: Ticking over nicely this prep. Ran 110 two runs back behind Sir Delius. Has some big ratings in the locker and will be running on.

Via Sistina: It’s grand final day for her but she’s rated down the last couple. Rated 107, 107, 108 this prep and the market has given her much bigger figures. She’s the one to beat but unders.

Treasurethe Moment: Not the same horse since she had colic after a dominant first up win. She gets the ideal run here but it’s very difficult to know if she’s spot on.

Aeliana: She’s been building nicely this campaign after two Group 1 runner-up performances rating 106 and 107. Was $5-$3.7 in the Turnbull and copped some interference in the straight. Big danger.

Nepotism: Gets the benefit of 49.5kg but could be back in traffic. Had no luck in the Caulfield Guineas and up in trip for the first time. Rated 103 at third start winning the Champagne Stakes. Tough to mark and is a genuine threat.

The Racelab Prime Ratings for each horse can be seen in the screenshot below:

The ratings/market:

Based off a range of data, speed map and recent form, Racelab has come up with its own 100% market, which is compared to the current market in the table below. Value exists where the Racelab price is lower than the current price:

The verdict and betting strategy:

The curtain closes on the Cox Plate at Moonee Valley. We are certainly in for an exciting contest to finish off and it will be a Group 1 to remember! With no natural front-runners the pace appears slow on paper. Light Infantry Man should take up the running with Attrition outside and Treasurethe Moment close behind box-seating. The rest will settle in the next wave and Antino could loop around to inject some speed into the race if they are jogging up front.

Fair to say that the form leading into this isn’t easy to assess – there are a few question marks over most of the field – Can Via win as an 8yo? Is TTM over colic? Will Antino loop the field and lead mid-race? That being said, I do think that the right form race is the Turnbull Stakes and it’s taking up a decent percentage with the books which commands respect. Via Sistina appeared to have every possible chance in the Turnbull Stakes and didn’t hit the line hard which is very unusual – seems skinny enough. Aeliana should be at the top of her game here fourth up – Waller is very happy with her and Hugh Bowman jumps on – should be in the finish. Buckaroo ran a good number when resuming and has been consistent ever since. He’s got the ratings to win this.

Suggested Bet:

Aeliana (WIN)

Buckaroo (WIN)

Legend: