The track – unique features of Caulfield 1600m course, advantages PIR/barriers:
- Rail True, Good 4
- On pacers have an advantage at Caulfield with a win strike rate of 10.8%
- Backmarkers are losing at 17% POT
- Lane 2 is performing best with a 2% POT. Coming wider than lane 4 is very difficult
Speed map & tempo:
Expecting a good tempo with a number of on-pacers engaged (see image below):
Positive/negative jockey/trainer worth highlighting:
- Cliff Brown and Ethan Brown have a POT of 23.5%
- Damian Lane, Jamie Melham and Craig Williams all ride their chances for the first time (Leica Lucy, Damask Rose and Athanatos)
Past 5 winners with Racelab Performance Rating:
This table outlines the Racelab rating achieved by each of the past five winners when taking out the Toorak Handicap. It gives an indication of the level required to win the race in recent years for a few different levels of weight carried. The rating is dependent on the WFA scale and factors in weight carried, hence I’m Thunderstruck – as a 4YO gelding – produced a lower Racelab rating due to the adjustment for him carrying 52.0kg. Antino ran a career peak of 114.2 last year in a race that we will never forget!
| Date | Horse | Age | Sex | Weight | Margin | Racelab Rating |
| 12/10/24 | Antino 6G | 55.5kg | 6.5L | 114.2 |
| 14/10/23 | Attrition 4H | 54.0kg | 0.1L | 107.5 |
| 08/10/22 | Tuvalu 5G | 53.5kg | 0.75L | 106.9 |
| 09/10/21 | I’m Thunderstruck 4G | 52.0kg | 0.75L | 105.8 |
| 10/10/20 | Mr Quickie 3C | 59.0kg | 2.0L | 111.0 |
Racelab benchmark likely to be required to win this year’s edition of the Toorak Handicap:
| Weight | Rating |
| 59.0kg | 110.4 |
| 58.5kg | 110.0 |
| 58.0kg | 109.6 |
| 57.0kg | 108.8 |
| 56.5kg | 108.3 |
| 56.0kg | 107.8 |
| 54.5kg | 106.3 |
| 54.0kg | 105.8 |
| 52.0kg | 104.1 |
The Racelab Prime Ratings for each horse can be seen in the screenshot below:
The ratings/market:
Based off a range of data, speed map and recent form, Racelab has come up with its own 100% market, which is compared to the current market in the table below. Value exists where the Racelab price is lower than the current price:
| Runner | Racelab Rated Price | Current Market |
| DESERT LIGHTNING | 34 | 21 |
| PINSTRIPED | 42 | 31 |
| EVAPORATE | 8.5 | 6.5 |
| FEROCE | 10 | 13 |
| SEPALS | 4.5 | 3.5 |
| TRANSATLANTIC | 8.8 | 7 |
| LAZZURA | 7.5 | 5.5 |
| LEICA LUCY | 6.5 | 9 |
| DAMASK ROSE | 20 | 16 |
| ATHANATOS | 22 | 18 |
The verdict and betting strategy:
Pretty open betting race with a few chances. Sepals was superb in the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes but goes up 5kg and stepping up in distance may not suit either. Lazzura is 0-2 at the distance and she enjoyed a perfect run last start so I’m happy to be against her as well. Leica Lucy is very progressive and already a proven Group 1 winner in NZ. Her run was excellent first up over 1400m and drops 4kg here with Damian Lane booked. She will be hitting the line very strongly and is unbeaten at the distance. Feroce is another one looking for 1600m that may be worth a spec if the price drifts out a touch further.
Suggested Bet:
Leica Lucy (Win)
Legend:
| Name | Definition |
| Prime Rating | Expected rating figure for the upcoming race based on historical performances |
| Job To Do (JTD) | The minimum rating required for each runner to win the race using a combination of metrics: Benchmark, Weight Carried, Mean Weight and Distance. |
