Racelab’s Matt Collum has taken a forensic look at the Victoria Derby using their ratings system assist working out who’s best credentialed to take out this year’s 3yo staying feature.
To learn more about Racelab, please click here.
In The Lab | Victoria Derby | Set weights 3yo Group 1 2500m
The track – unique features of Flemington 2500m course, advantages PIR/barriers:
- Rail True, Good 4
- Lanes 3-7 perform best for all distances from 400m – finish
- Settling midfield with cover is the most profitable position in run
- It’s a short run into the bend at the 2500m
Speed map & tempo:
Expecting an even tempo here over the staying trip:
Positive/negative jockey/trainer worth highlighting:
- Jamie Melham and Craig WIlliams ride Mcwoody and Providence for the first time
- Tommy Berry is returning a healthy 32% ROI from his last 100 rides at 24% S/R
- Matthew Cumani is winning at 21% S/R with a ROI of 34% from his last 100 runners
- Rory Hunter and Blake Shinn are returning a massive 360% ROI
Past 5 winners with Racelab Performance Rating:
This table outlines the Racelab rating achieved by each of the past five winners when taking out the Victoria Derby. It gives an indication of the level required to win the race in recent years for a few different levels of weight carried, margin spread and race quality.
| Date | Horse | Age | Sex | Weight | Margin | Racelab Rating |
| 02/11/24 | Goldrush Guru 3C | 57.0kg | 1.5L | 104.4 |
| 04/11/23 | Riff Rocket 3G | 57.0kg | 0.1L | 105.3 |
| 29/10/22 | Manzoice 3C | 57.0kg | 0.5L | 104.4 |
| 30/10/21 | Hitotsu 3C | 57.0kg | 1.75L | 106.6 |
| 31/10/20 | Johnny Get Angry 3G | 57.0kg | 1.0L | 104.2 |
Racelab benchmark likely to be required to win this year’s edition of the Victoria Derby:
Based off the final field, their recent form, and potential Racelab Prime Rating, the below figures give an indication of what horses will need to achieve based on their weight carried under the WFA scale to win Saturday’s Victoria Derby.
| Weight | Rating |
| 57.0kg | 104.4 |
The Racelab Prime Ratings for each horse can be seen in the screenshot below.
The ratings/market:
Based off a range of data, speed map and recent form, Racelab has come up with its own 100% market, which is compared to the current market in the table below. Value exists where the Racelab price is lower than the current price.
| Horse | Rated Price | Market |
| Observer | 2.6 | 2.15 |
| Highvol | 82 | 23 |
| Autumn Mystery | 17 | 10 |
| Miewa | 37 | 19 |
| Options | 7.5 | 15 |
| Providence | 5 | 7 |
| Azazel | 37 | 23 |
| Arcora | 123 | 41 |
| O’sheamus | 17 | 14 |
| Amazake | 123 | 51 |
| Engine Of War | 55 | 19 |
| Matsuda | 82 | 41 |
| One Step Closer | 82 | 41 |
| Savisanta | 55 | 23 |
| Mcwoody | 82 | 61 |
| Deal Done Fast | 82 | 34 |
The verdict and betting strategy:
The 3yo’s battle it out over the 2500m for the first time in the 2025 Vic Derby! Speed should be even with a few on Azazel, Matsuda, Highvol, Observer and Engine Of War all pushing for positive postions in the run. There are three key lead-up races for the Derby – The Vase at Moonee Valley. The Classic at Caulfield and The Geelong Classic. With bunched finishes at Caulfield and Geelong, I’m happy to follow the form coming out of the Vase. Observer was dominant winning last week and could have won by more however he does have to step up in distance which is the big question mark and the price seems short enough. Out of the Vase, there were two horses running on strongly – Options and Providence. Options was clear second pick last week behind Observer at $4.6 and had no luck – he shapes up as a great value play and will get a soft run throughout. Providence savaged the line running the second fastest last 200m section of the day. I’m expecting a big run from him here as well.
Suggested Bet:
Providence (WIN)
Options (WIN)
Legend:
| Name | Definition |
| Prime Rating | Expected rating figure for the upcoming race based on historical performances |
| Job To Do (JTD) | The minimum rating required for each runner to win the race using a combination of metrics: Benchmark, Weight Carried, Mean Weight and Distance. |
