Summary of best bets:
Value: Race 8 backing both (12) Noble Work and (15) Soldier Boi
Roughie: Race 5 (1) Miss Aria 1×3 E/W
Turf Talk
- Writing this early Thursday morning, the biggest watch is the forecast 10-30mm of rain on Thursday. If we get the upper end of that range the track will move well into the Heavy range from its current Soft 7 rating. Will check back in and update after the deluge.
- The rail is out 8m and light winds should give on-speed runners every chance. However, with the rail having been True and +4m at the previous two meetings, don’t be surprised if wider lanes come right into play.
Stats that matter
- Jordan Childs is the form jockey of the meeting, riding at 20% from his past 100 rides with a POT of +18.9%.
- Luke Cartwright has a good book of rides as he looks to find form. He has ridden just seven winners from his past 100 rides (-41.9% POT) and two winners from his past 50 rides (-76.9% POT).
- Patrick Payne excels at this time of year, operating at 24% from his past 100 runners with a POT of +26.2%.
- Anthony and Sam Freedman have been below their usual high standards, with nine winners from their past 100 runners (-33.2% POT) and four winners from their past 50 runners (-48.4% POT).
Race 1
Suspect they follow (1) Divine Dot down to the inside rail, she’s the likely leader.
Loved the debut run of (8) Stars Of Dom, who hit the line very strongly behind Divine Dot over 1000m at Sandown. She will be better served at 1100m and gets a 1.5kg swing in her favour.
Liked the turn of foot shown by (7) Call Me Later in her jump-outs. She looks like a filly that might get over further than 1100m, but this is a lovely kick-off point.
(1) Divine Dot is again going to take plenty of catching. She’s done nothing wrong and continues to win, but the end of 1100m is definitely a query.
(3) Vega Vixen won a handy two-year-old race on the Caulfield Heath at debut. Don’t think 1100m will pull her up and she should have a nice bunny to chase in Divine Dot.
Selections:
(8) Stars Of Dom
(3) Vega Vixen
(7) Call Me Later
(1) Divine Dot
Suggested Bet: Happy to watch.
Race 2
Looks very good speed. (18) Hot Too Go (if he gets a run) and (11) Nation’s Call look the most prominent. But (5) Yam, (10) Taka Speed, (14) Dragoon and (15) Aritonous will all be right there.
Need to revisit this race after scratchings.
Keen that (19) Terratorian is in this up to his ears. He is airborne this campaign with two dominant wins at Ballarat. He’s a big horse that will appreciate the wide-open expanses of Flemington and, dropping down to 54kg, has the ability to produce a big rating here off a hot tempo.
(20) Ant worked in the second-best last 400m and best last 200m split of the meeting first-up on the Caulfield Heath. Better suited out to a mile and on a bigger track.
(7) Fearless Freddy has smashed the line in both runs this campaign. Big track, wide draw and strong tempo all suit.
Getting to a mile is a big tick for (13) Madiyya, who will also relish a decent tempo. Untested on genuinely soft ground but profiles well.
(6) Nobler is flying. He got back onto good ground at his last two starts in NSW. Copped a perfect steer from gate one two back at Randwick but was still strong late and then was simply too good for them at Gosford. Not sure genuinely rain-affected going is what he’s looking for, so as favourite I’m happy to work around him.
(2) Walking Painting had to do plenty of work outside the leader last start and was left in front a long way from home. Prior to that he was trending in the right direction and should lob on speed without doing too much work.
Selections:
(19) Terratorian
(20) Ant
(7) Fearless Freddy
(13) Madiyya
Suggested Bet: Backing Terratorian/Ant if they get a start.
Race 3
There looks good speed. (1) Flying Done probably takes it up, but (10) Princing, (9) Lucky Lucky Boom and (12) Maldini will press forward from wider draws.
(1) Flying Done was beaten by a handy one in Concord Connie. He was first-up, so should strip significantly fitter, but did get a very soft lead there. He bolted in on a Soft 7 and while a really heavy deck is another matter, there’s nothing to suggest he won’t get through it.
(13) Miss Revealing was five weeks between runs and copped a little check at a crucial stage at Sandown last start. That was a very good run and getting back up to the mile is ideal. She also had little luck in the Mornington Guineas when back and wide. Should get a nice run here.
It’s not often Mildura BM56 form piques the interest at Flemington, but (7) Dirnaseer is right in the mix. He beat very little last start, but it was an impressive win and he now drops 10.5kg while stepping up to a more suitable 1600m.
(4) Kaleo gets a nice smother and looks ready to peak third-up.
(3) Bel Mezyaan is on the quick back-up off a Heavy track run last week and rises to a mile for the first time. Both look queries. He was also flattered by the strong bias last week. Enough concerns to leave him out of calculations, but he is fit and racing well.
Selections:
(7) Dirnaseer
(13) Miss Revealing
(1) Flying Done
(4) Kaleo
Suggested Bet: Keen to back both Dirnaseer and Miss Revealing to win the same amount. Quinella 1,7,13.
Race 4
Really good race.
(8) Biologics was dominant first-up at Werribee. She has always shown above-average ability but struggled last campaign. The glue-on shoes come off here, which she wore throughout that preparation, and she draws to advantage out wide on the track. Think she’s a smart filly who can take a stack of beating.
(12) Immortal Triumph ran big time at Geelong, rating much quicker than both the other maiden and benchmark race on the card. It was advantageous to be on speed, but it wasn’t a screaming rail bias. The inside draw and rise to 1200m are queries, but he’s got talent and will be in this a long way.
Gee, (3) Wise Inlaw was good over this track and trip last start. Rises in weight but gets the 1.5kg claim of Luke Cartwright to assist.
(7) Barari is airborne and will be strong over the final furlong while those on speed are weakening. Sticky map from gate one though.
The topweight, (1) Blethyn, didn’t have much luck at Sandown fresh and can run well here.
Selections:
(8) Biologics
(12) Immortal Triumph
(3) Wise Inlaw
(7) Barari
Suggested Bet: Backing Biologics/Immortal Triumph.
Race 5
Lack of any real speed. (4) First Chorus went back last week but can just about lead this along with (2) Duchess Zou. Maybe (10) Khadime somewhere thereabouts with (7) Husk.
She’s going to need a bit of luck and a good ride from the gate, but sheesh, I reckon (1) Miss Aria has a genuine hope at big odds. She hasn’t won since dinosaurs were roaming the earth, but this is easily the weakest contest she has seen for a long time. Had absolutely no luck here two back and then was nailed to inferior ground at Sandown last start. Prefer her with some sting out of the ground. With luck in running she can run a huge race at $26.
Jackson Radley just needs to aim for a similar ride to the one he gave Seafall a couple of weeks back, three wide with cover and building into the race.
(4) First Chorus is fit and loves wet tracks. She has never backed up inside seven days, which is a query coming off a heavy track run last week, but she maps ideally and the drop back in distance is no concern. Jamie Mott has a terrific association with the mare.
(3) Stylish has trialled nicely for this return. She was prominent over this track and trip a couple of times last winter and looks capable of running a big race fresh. Tempo and map may be against her.
(2) Duchess Zou had plenty of favours with 51.5kg last time out. She rises considerably in weight but should again enjoy a soft run on speed.
Selections:
(1) Miss Aria
(4) First Chorus
(3) Stylish
(2) Duchess Zou
Suggested Bet: 1×3 EW Miss Aria.
Race 6
Good speed engaged.
(5) It’s A Knockout has trialled up nicely for her return and the 3kg claim for Jabez Johnstone, who should be able to secure a good run in transit, is valuable. She was a big winner first-up over 1400m two preparations back and if she gets anywhere near that rating they’ll struggle to beat her. She was only fair in three runs last campaign but covered ground and got back in a $1 million race that didn’t change shape first-up on the Gold Coast.
(9) Spione is flying and gets the tempo to suit. She was taken to the outside rail at Randwick last time out, which was clearly an error. She should have finished much closer, maybe even won, had they tracked the eventual winner who came through the inside. She’s going to get back again but will be steaming home late.
(1) Windstorm is going well enough and loves these conditions.
(10) Capper Thirtynine has jumped out well between runs and should give a sight on speed.
Race doesn’t end there.
Selections:
(5) It’s A Knockout
(9) Spione
(1) Windstorm
(10) Capper Thirtynine
Suggested Bet: Backing It’s A Knockout, but will also be sending Spione around a winner if they are able to make ground from back and wide. One to watch with the early pattern.
Race 7
(2) Zahrann didn’t have the race run to suit at Flemington on Australian debut but still whipped home with the best last 200m split of the meeting. The rise to 2000m looks ideal and he gets a nice claim for Jabez Johnstone, who is riding well.
(10) Shockletz got too far back on a day you wanted to be closer at Sandown last start. I think she’s going well and 2000m is ideal. Gate one is a slight concern as she’ll need some luck and I think she’s better racing outside of horses.
(15) Starzintheireyes had his chance in a BM88 when narrowly beaten at Randwick last start, but he should strip notably fitter now after his first two Australian runs. He gets right down in the weights and maps ideally.
The topweight, (1) Bianco Vilano, is a grand old horse and his Wagga Cup win last start was dominant. Jason Lyon seems to get on well with him and he’s won with 63kg on a Heavy track with J-Mac aboard as a younger horse. The slight concern is the 35 days between runs, but he looks over the odds at $31.
(12) Aftermath might be worth including in trifectas and first fours. He was strong late in the same race Zahrann comes through and is currently around the 90/1 mark.
Selections:
(2) Zahrann
(1) Bianco Vilano
(10) Shockletz
(15) Starzintheireyes
Suggested Bet: Backing Zahrann/Bianco Vilano.
Race 8
They should hike along here.
(12) Noble Work should relish getting out to 2000m. He has been excellent in both runs this campaign and looks a staying prospect of some promise. He comes through a couple of runs against older horses at Pakenham and I think that form will stack up well.
I gave (15) Soldier Boi a chance last start and he didn’t have much luck. There’s a lot of upside with this bloke and, being a big lightly-raced gelding, he should only improve with racing. He draws to again sit right on speed having done no work. Hopefully he gets a smoother run in transit this time.
Logan Bates has clearly chosen to ride (14) She’s Got The Cash over Noble Work, who he rode last start. She was good behind Brave Danza over this track and trip last start and swapping gate 16 for gate three means she’ll be much closer in the run. I think she can turn the tables on Brave Danza at the very least and she’s a key winning hope.
(7) Decalogue belted his rivals at Newcastle to break his maiden last start and there was some handy form behind him. The wide draw isn’t ideal for a horse that likes to settle handy to the speed. Assume he may scratch and save for another day.
(3) Siriusly Hot should give a sight on speed but will have to contend with plenty of pressure stepping to 2000m.
Selections:
(12) Noble Work
(15) Soldier Boi
(14) She’s Got The Cash
(7) Decalogue
Suggested Bet: Backing Noble Work/Soldier Boi at odds.
Race 9
$7 the field sums this up. Tough way to finish.
Have to have something small on (12) Moby Dick. He’s had the one run for Gavin Bedggood where he blew the start and never got into the race at Warrnambool. He only had one jump-out leading into that run so may have simply needed it. Either way, he’ll derive good benefit from both that first-up outing and another jump-out between runs.
He has several straight-track ratings that are good enough to win this and if he can get back to anything like the form that saw him beat Headwall, Nadal and Baraqiel down the straight, albeit with pattern in his favour, he’ll be winning. Around $35 looks a big price.
(11) Markdel has been flying since joining Allan and Jason Williams. He produced big late splits first-up at Sandown over 1000m and looks better suited at 1200m. The slight query is that all of his best runs have come fresh and he now backs up inside a fortnight. Perhaps that’s simply a sign he’s doing well. He wasn’t beaten far at his only straight-track run as a two-year-old despite racing in inferior ground near the inside rail.
(5) Midtown Boss comes through The Goodwood where he ran well. His turn of foot is well suited to straight-track racing.
(13) Rosa Aotearoa is simply airborne since joining Reece Goodwin’s stable. It remains to be seen whether gate one is advantageous by this stage of the day, but she rolls forward and makes her own luck.
Race certainly doesn’t end there.
Selections:
(12) Moby Dick
(11) Markdel
(13) Rosa Aotearoa
(5) Midtown Boss
Suggested Bet: Small plays on Moby Dick and Markdel.
