Best Bets
Best Bet: Race 7 No. 5 Montjuic Magic
Next Best: Race 2 No. 7 Texture
Best Value: Race 10 No. 9 Leveraged Buyout
Turf Talk
- Expecting perfect conditions for Darwin Cup Day, with clear weather forecast.
- On the dirt surface, the rail remains in the True position in its general setup.
- Generally, preference should be given to runners who will be positive in the run due to the surface, but it is still a track where runners can make up ground with the right run.
Stats That Matter
- Local jockey Jade Hampson has a strong advantage at this track, with 15 winners from her past 100 rides and a positive POT return of +24.2%.
- Of the trainers represented at this meeting, Chris Nash’s stable has potentially been in the best recent form, producing 22 winners from its past 100 runners and returning a positive POT of +8.2%.
Race 2
Overview: (7) Texture is in flying form, recording two wins in a row since arriving in the Northern Territory. He is clearly thriving in the conditions and handled a big weight to win over 1300m on Saturday, so he can back up that performance dropping to 1200m in a similar-level race. (2) Anecdotal looks the key speed influence and likely leader, which should suit. He comes into the race fresh and resumes slightly down in grade. (14) Miami Baby hasn’t been far from the winners in her three most recent runs when well supported in the market. The wide draw is the risk, but she gets in well at the weights against her rivals and could surprise. (1) Southampton Flare looked good winning last start and this race appears no harder, but he will need to begin well to find a suitable position from the wide barrier.
Selections:
(7) Texture
(2) Anecdotal
(14) Miami Baby
(1) Southampton Flare
Suggested Bet: (7) Texture – Win
Race 7
Overview: (5) Montjuic Magic is loving her time in Darwin and has found excellent form, recording two wins and a second placing from her three runs here. This race looks no harder than the one she won last start and she maps as the key speed influence, so expect her to prove tough to catch. (1) Auxiliary finished second behind the favourite last start after jumping as the market elect. That suggests there should not be much between the pair, and he should again get the right run from the low barrier. These two look likely to fight out the race. (7) Tellez is a last-start winner who now rises in grade. He has a good record at this track and should be fitter on the quick back-up. (8) Itwasonlyakiss has been hitting the line well, recording placings in her past two runs. Should they overdo it in front, she could be the runner charging over the top late.
Selections:
(5) Montjuic Magic
(1) Auxiliary
(7) Tellez
(8) Itwasonlyakiss
Suggested Bet: (5) Montjuic Magic – Win
Race 10 – Darwin Cup
Overview: (9) Leveraged Buyout has found form at the right time for this feature, coming into the race with two wins in a row. Importantly, he won over this track and distance last start when taking out the NT Derby. This is a step up in grade, but he brings the right form and, with a lighter weight than several key rivals, should be strong late and hitting the line well. Early favourite (2) Stormageddon looks ready to peak third-up this preparation. This has been a long-term target for the stable and he appears ideally suited rising to this distance, giving him every chance to produce a peak performance. Local galloper (10) Wolfburn has a strong record at this track and gets another opportunity to claim the Darwin Cup. He drops in weight and has a consistent record under this setup, so he cannot be discounted. (1) Casino Seventeen may bring the strongest overall form into the race, having contested quality races in Victoria, including a Group 3 victory at Caulfield as recently as November. He finished a close third when beginning his Darwin campaign and will be fitter, but the significant weight he must carry is the major query.
Selections:
(9) Leveraged Buyout
(2) Stormageddon
(10) Wolfburn
(1) Casino Seventeen
Suggested Bet: (9) Leveraged Buyout – Each Way
