Summary of best bets:
Best bet: Race 3 No.7 Actuality
Next bet: Race 7 Backing No.2 Satirically/No.8 On The Prowl
Turf Talk:
- The only day of the year Saturday punters are exposed to Mornington as the feature meeting.
- Tight-turning track with a short straight. That said, the straight is an uphill run, so it can be testing.
- Key for backmarkers is to build momentum down the side straight before turning for home. Cutting the corner is even more advantageous.
- It’s generally a track that favours on-speed horses and with the rail true/light winds, I expect that to be the case on Saturday.
- Local horses often over-perform here on their home deck, I suspect due to the many nuances of the track.
- 22 out of the 30 placegetters last year settled in the first four in run. Nine out of 10 winners settled in the first three.
Race 1
Quality 2yo race.
Was keen on (2) The Speed Machine heading into his SA debut off a series of hot jump-outs and think he’s just as well suited here. He didn’t beat much there in Adelaide but the manner of the win was totally dominant, steaming home the best last 400/200m splits of the meeting. Drawn to control the race, kick off the turn and take a stack of beating.
(12) Je Suis Beyonce debuts for the old band: Peter Moody and Luke Nolen. She has trialled very nicely and I suspect they will press forward in the early stages. Looks a talented filly who can absolutely win on debut.
(8) Luna Vega showed good ability in her first campaign, competitive in two Stakes runs. She has trialled ‘quite’ well this time in; I was just a touch concerned she wanted to hang a little late in her most recent. She’s well drawn and should acquit herself well.
Really liked the jump-outs of (7) Synaro. Chris Waller horses are generally ridden most conservatively in jump-outs but this bloke was up on speed and strong to the line in each of his Flemington hit-outs. Think he will put himself in the early firing line and be in this a long way.
(3) Blue Meteor is another who has prepped up nicely for his debut. Saved from a maiden during the week to run here. Does a lot right.
(2) The Speed Machine
(12) Je Suis Beyonce
(8) Luna Vega
(7) Synaro
Suggested bet: Like The Speed Machine. Think he should be favourite, surprised he isn’t.
Race 2
Plenty of speed, as you’d expect with a 1000m contest.
(13) Street Artist is the horse to beat. Absolutely belted them this track and trip beating a handy field in breaking his maiden back in September last year before getting the better of a very strong BM64 field at Bendigo and culminating the prep in an unlucky second at Flemington during the Carnival. Has trialled up very well. Drawn to sit on speed without doing much work. Horse to beat.
(6) La Astro Chat is a big danger. Also drawn to put himself on speed without working too hard. Unbeaten here at home. Has been freshened up and had a soft jump-out (in the same heat as Street Artist) for what looks a set play. Dakotah Kean’s 3kg claim comes in handy.
Sheesh, they’d be disappointed with the wide draw for (4) Always Enuff but still think she can win. She, too, had been freshened up for this and a recent jump-out here at Mornington on the inner track was excellent. Another who is unbeaten here at home. With a good ride, she can build momentum and figure in the finish.
(9) Runlikeencryption is going to get a lovely run in transit.
(13) Street Artist
(4) Always Enuff
(6) La Astro Chat
(9) Runlikeencryption
Suggested bet: Backing Street Artist/Always Enuff. Quinella 4,6,13.
Race 3
Not a lot of speed on paper.
Expect (7) Actuality to press forward from a low draw and she should prove awfully hard to beat. Was held up a crucial stage and not sure she handled the heavy deck first up at Flemington. Had trialled super prior to that run and her form around a bend on good ground reads very well for this.
(3) Body Of Venus has come back in super form this campaign. Came from an impossible position to win at Ararat last start. This is a touch harder, but she draws to settle a pair or two closer and looks better suited at 1200m (than 1100m last start).
(2) Gelhorn was poor first up but likely due to heavy ground. Only had the one jump-out leading in. Drawn for a soft trail and don’t mind the drop back in trip.
(4) Egerton is crying out for 1200m. Drawn a touch sticky so will need a good ride.
(7) Actuality
(3) Body Of Venus
(2) Gelhorn
(4) Egerton
Suggested bet: Backing Actuality
Race 4
Very good speed.
(2) Prestige Snitzel looks over the odds. She dominantly won the Mornington Sires this distance/meeting last year. Didn’t have a lot of luck in her 1200m runs last campaign. Trials have been better than the form guide will read and I think she’s ready to run a big race fresh.
(8) Arlington Row may just have the speed to hold them all out. She missed the kick on debut before Linda Meech jumped in the saddle and got the job done at her subsequent two starts. Little query is the 7-weeks between runs, but on the up and will take catching.
(3) Naifah has jumped-out very well for her return. Like the claim for Emily Pozman here – she’s a filly that will put herself on speed without much effort and from there she will be awfully hard to beat.
(1) Torsheen is speedy and can overcome the wide draw. She’s very deep into a preparation now so doubt there’s any improvement to come, but gets onto her home deck and has a handy claim.
(6) Live gets a senior jockey back on board after not having the best run in transit at Caulfield last time out. Strong tempo swill suit her.
(10) Milos Filos was good on speed as at Caulfield last time out. She gets a nice run just behind the speed.
(2) Prestige Snitzel
(8) Arlington Row
(3) Naifah
(6) Live
Suggested bet: Something small Prestige Snitzel (more the place) and Arlington Row
Race 5
Average race. Think (4) A Diva can control the speed and prove awfully hard to run down. Beaten by a handy one in Terilee last start – she would start deep odds on here. Think she went far too slow last start (-16L to the 800m mark), which didn’t suit her grinding style. She was also in the inferior ground there. Think she’s the horse to beat.
(7) This Time Girl is the main danger. Maps for a lovely run on speed. Ran second in a four-horse field at Cranbourne last start but there was merit to the race and the third horse has since run second at Sandown.
(3) Bon Mistress was solid firs tup and she generally goes well second up. Drawn for a nice run. Struggles to win but this is a suitable race.
(8) Baywatch has more ability than she’s shown in three runs. Was OK late in a trial between runs and crossover nose band goes on here. Some hope at odds.
(4) A Diva
(7) This Time Girl
(3) Bon Mistress
(8) Baywatch
Suggested bet: Don’t much like the race. A Diva the horse to beat.
Race 6
(3) Wonder Boy wanted to duck in behind the winner (Captain Furai) in Sydney last start, but was excellent in running second. Got back on that madly biased Flemington track in the Shaftesbury Avenue the start prior – run was better than the form card suggests. Only run at a mile was in the Queensland Guineas when running midfield; this is the right time of the preparation to try it again. Clear class horse of the race and the one they all have to beat.
Been following (5) Bullets High. He probably should’ve won the Warracknabeal and Echuca Cups in his last three starts. Think he’s going very well and is over the odds at $14.
(11) Taung was forced back to the inferior part of the track late at Caulfield last time out. Ready for a mile now.
(3) Wonder Boy
(5) Bullets High
(11) Taung
(9) Opening Address
Suggested bet: Quinella 3,5,11.
Race 7
(2) Satirically is drawn out but the mile start is one of the better starts at Mornington. He will press forward from the wide draw and on last start ratings he’s the one they have to beat. He smashed his rivals at Sandown last time out and the beaten margins back through the field underline the strength of the win. Super fit and will have a tactical edge on key rivals.
(8) On The Prowl has good talent and is suited stepping to a mile. He was super late two back at Sandown before settling handier off a moderate tempo at Pakenham when producing a dominant win last start. Needs a bit of luck off gate two but no better ‘duck and weave’ rider than Billy Egan when at his best. Right in the game.
(3) Silver Bullet is drawn for the right run on the back of the speed. Was 35 days between runs when wining at Pakenham last time out and should have further improvement to come.
(7) Pavlich will press forward and be in this a long way.
(2) Satirically
(8) On The Prowl
(3) Silver Bullet
(7) Pavlich
Suggested bet: Keen on the race. Backing Satirically and On The Prowl – think one of the pair win.
Race 8
A lot of these come through the Easter Cup won by (7) Ambassadorial. He’s a good starting point in the race. He can make his own luck on speed and is racing in super fashion for the McEvoy yard. The 2400m is a query and he rises 2kg here – but he’s fit, in-form and tactically versatile.
The toppy, (1) Bankers Choice won this race last year. Didn’t have the best of luck in that Easter Cup and was only second-up going into the race. Won the race last year and looks to gave a very good chance of going back to back.
Think this race sets up beautifully for (5) Immediacy. Plenty of speed drawn in and around him should see Stockdale land in a beautiful trailing position. Came into this campaign off a long break so should only be getting fitter with each run. Won this day last year, albeit over 2000m, but is ready for the 2400m now. Record at the trip reads 4:0:0:0 but two of them were on heavy ground and they’ve all been in quality races.
(15) Kings Valley is drawn ideally and has the in-form Lachlan Neindorf in the saddle. Race shape totally against in the Easter Cup last start – total forgive run. Right in the game.
(13) If they’re able to swoop as the day goes on then (13) Suntora comes into play. Think she settles near enough last from the wide draw but racing very well.
(11) Pounding is going very well, just not sure he’s a genuine 2400m horse and slow tempo last start may have made him look like he wants this trip…
(5) Immediacy
(1) Bankers Choice
(7) Ambassadorial
(15) Kings Valley
Suggested bet: Backing Bankers Choice/Immediacy
Race 9
Good race. Plenty of speed with many of these rising in trip.
(9) Coleman looks over the odds. Liked his trials leading into the Discovery at Ballarat and I’d just completely forget he went around there – it was a leader dominated track and he was badly held up at the tail of the field. If he can jump a touch better here he should get a lovely run from gate three.
(12) La Fracas will appreciate the strong tempo and should get his chance from gate four. Got way too far back at Rosehill last time out when drawing the carpark but was home some of the day’s best late splits. Do wonder if he’s best suited on rain affected going and he looks short enough.
(1) Desert Lightning is drawn a horror gate but he still seems over the odds at $27. Has trialled up nicely. This is the weakest race he’s contested in some time and whilst he’s better known over a touch further, he generally flies fresh and has run some reasonable races over 1200m. Strong speed should help break the field up. If he can catch a break in running then he’s a big hope.
(17) Recon was good late first up over an unsuitable 1000m trip. Far better suited at 1200m and should get a nice blending run off a hot tempo. Has won at the track and in recent times has been trainer here, too.
(9) Coleman
(1) Desert Lightning
(17) Recon
(12) La Fracas
Suggested bet: Small plays Coleman/Desert Lightning at odds.
Race 10
Looks very good speed which should afford (10) Duchess Zou a lovely run in transit. She was very good at Caulfield last start in a key form refence for this. With the map favours, she’s the horse to beat, but market hasn’t missed her by the same token.
(3) Celsius Star is a tough on-pacer who is going to be in this a long way. Hasn’t been to Mornington since March 2023 when he bolted in with a lowly BM58, but he’s suited to the tight-turning track!
(6) Nimbustwothousand spots them a bit of a start but will be strong late. (4) Stolli Bolli has an awkward map but was good first up.
(10) Duchess Zou
(3) Celsius Sar
(6) Nimbustwothousand
(4) Stolli Bolli
Suggested bet: Little interest
